If we think Telfer could be worth billions over the next decade for GGP even with the decommissioning costs then why will it not be worth anything at all to Newmont? The project just doesn’t quite fit in with their strategy going forward they aren’t saying there is no profit to be made.
Newmont could sell 51% of Hav and Telfer for the price of taking on the decommissioning costs at the end of the project. Then they get 49% of the profit and don’t have to waste their time on running the project.
SD might not have a choice. If a reasonable offer came in for the whole of GGP he would have to put it to shareholders to vote on it, he could give a recommendation to reject but would be out of his hands if majority voted in favour. I do believe an offer around our ATH would be accepted by majority. That would be around 5 times higher than the current price though so no one would be offering anything like that for a while. GLA.
I think long term this could be good for GGP, but would think it would make more sense for Wyloo to purchase Telfer and us to purchase more of Hav and run the project. People think it is straight forward and saying they should just give us Telfer (never going to happen). We wouldn’t just have to purchase both but we would have to pay the full running costs. As far as I know we only have funding in place to cover 30%.
Even if we got enough together without diluting existing LTH to oblivion, what happens if there is a problem with the plant and requires millions and millions to rectify or processing comes to a halt, we wouldn’t have a chance of coming up with more.
Wyloo can take care of infrastructure and we can take care of running a project which looks like why we have been paying an awful lot for a top board for a few years, when they have had no control over our only asset. Win win for us and Wyloo in my eyes.
As things stand we are keeping our 30% and going mining, which we have funding for so no need t for dilution. If we were to buy telfer it would be a different matter, but we would be diluted to oblivion for that to happen with running costs, so can’t see it.
I can’t see there being any dilution either, because there is absolutely no need for it as things stand. And if that is the case SD would come out with plenty of notice and say under no circumstance will there be a placing. Unlike last time when there was a leak and he came out with a non committing statement saying they’ve made no decisions either way, giving the market yet another excuse to drop the price on more uncertainty.
No reason for dilution when we are so close to production and free cash flow that we have been told we have funding in place to cover.
Spade, it only matters because the sooner milestones are met it puts us in a stronger position and protects us against a bid. After the FS and DTM all of us shareholders (and the market) would demand a far higher price if a bid did come in.
I’m not suggesting that they will try to get Hav on the ‘cheap’, any amount they would potentially pay would mean considerable profit for shareholders. But after the catalysts the price would have to be much much higher, but that is if they even want the 30%. I hope they don’t and we simply go mining as originally planned.
I don’t think there is a problem in realising that the only thing keeping our SP anchored is a lack of FS, DTM and a pause in the decline reaching the ore. All things that are out of our hands and very much in the hands of the only company who could benefit from our lower SP.
I still believe we will stick with the JV and go mining, and we will be 20-25p by Christmas so not too shabby. GLA
If they want to buy our 30% they will attempt it before the FS, DTM and reaching the ore body, they will not wait until after they have released all the SP catalysts. Just a pity they are in control of every aspect that is stopping our SP from flying where HAV is concerned, and all 3 have been delayed by Newmont.
I agree but if our SP is flying at 20/30p they will have to issue a lot more shares in return, and if investors are happy with the SP and are sitting on a tidy profit they are less like to agree to a sale, driving the price up further. While our price is low investors are more likely to encourage a sale if it means banking a profit.
I do agree on EG but they could buy Hav and JV with us on EG.
For clarity I hope we keep hold of the 30% and go mining, definitely the best outcome in my mind. My only worry is if they did want to bid, then they would want to bid prior to FS/DTM and reaching the ore, which are the only thing holding back our share price. And it is these 3 things that have been delayed by NEM (they have given reasonable but vague reasons for some of these delays).
Appreciate your knowledge Bamps.
Bamps - What do you think the chances are of Newmont making an offer for our 30%? Surely if they were going to make an offer they would want do it before FS/DTM and reaching the ore. If that’s the route they wanted to take they wouldn't want wait until we were 20/30p.
Spades - that’s just what I believe as so many others. If SD had initially informed us that reserves would not have been included in the MRE I don’t think we would have risen or fallen. My initial point was people trying to argue that we haven’t been battered the past few weeks, but as usual people pick up on other points.
I agree with you that patience is the most important thing with this investment. Anyway I still expect us to be at 20p+ this Christmas but that might not be enough of a ramp to be acceptable for this board. GLA.
Timber - And? The rise was on the back of the anticipation of the MRE being released, then when people found out it wasn’t going to include the reserves like everyone thought the price went down. Do you think it’s a coincidence that prices go up just before positive news is released?
Hardly disproving that it’s been disappointing for a few weeks, were we not close to 12p a few weeks ago and are we not now close to 8p?
You are invested in a share that is sat at around 8p, are you telling me you wouldn’t consider an offer of 38p today? No wonder most retail investors lose money. Not my fault you got spiked haha
Ace - I think a lot of people agree with you, I don’t think many would complain if we got offer for buyout that matches our ATH. Personally I am not in much misery as I have an average of around 1.4p so even if I end up with the price we are at today I will still have made more on this than any other investment.
But I am quite happy to wait another 2/3 years and get the 50p that I am looking for which I believe will come with the right wind. Most are happy on these boards when the price is on the way up and unhappy when the price is going down, learn to live with it it’s not a conspiracy.
Exactly, we done really well to climb to nearly 12p and that rise has more or less been eradicated, hence being battered. Anyone can twist the numbers to suit, we were also at 37p not long ago, too.