Member Info for Yanis2005

DRB/HITS,

For therms per MMSCFD refer to the CPR report, Page 49 - values used by Angus and Hedge (Mercuria), simply divide therms by MMSCFD for each month. Else, what will you be using? American?
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

5.5 MMSCFD satisfies full hedge commitments from now onwards.

Yes, there is the deferred July/August hedged amounts. But these are deferred to Q1/Q2 next year.

The deferred amount equals to an additional 34.49 MMSCFD per month (103.47/3). This takes the hedge amount for Q1/Q2 next year to 195.45 MMSCFD per month.

This is still covered by the 5.5 MMSCFD from B2&A4 wells and still make some money, except except for Q2 where the hedged price drops to 37.55p and more or less breaks even Do the calcs.

Yes, 5.5 MMSCFD brings in revenue for Angus, quite a bit for Q4 this year, not so much in Q1/Q2 next year, but quite a bit from there onwards.

Any additional flow revenues from sidetrack is all to Angus. Even 2 MMSCFD is £2 mil per month at 300p, but ofcourse is going to be more than 2 MMSCFD.

Gold mine.

We are debating who is selling — but does it really matter?

The fact is the SP is dropping when it should have been going up. Would the SP be dropping if sentiment was good? Ofcourse not, there would have been buyers to absorb the sales and drive the SP up.

IMO, it does not matter who is selling. The fact is the SP is dropping due to lack of sentiment - why is this? Why is sentiment so poor?

The sentiment here has been destroyed. The 2.50p bid is just blown away. Bid now 2.40p.

I blame SO’s poor PR qualities for this. Also, the last “prudent” £1 mil loan arrangement which sent a very bad signal to the markets - £1 mil should have been already available from Wressle receipts. Where is all that money gone?

I admit that big guys like BGF will sometimes change strategy and sell at a huge loss. I witness this myself with MPL, L&G invested £millions over the years and then with the SP substantially diminished, after they participated in a placing yet again, they sold at gigantic loss decimating the SP. I doubt it if they even got 10% of their money back. Yes. Institutions selling at a loss can happen. Their TR-1 filing though has been timely.

To come back to EOG. We have about 960 million shares and 1% is 9.6 million.

So warrants exercised will not come close to needing a TR-1 if they are less than 9.6 mil (1%).

Last BGF filing indicated their holding as of 2 September, 57 million left. So they need to sell at least 9.6 million shares to need to file again. Using IG’s chart I calculated that since 5 Sept, we traded 156 million shares, many times more than the 9.6 million needed for a filing. We have seen no TR-1 in almost 3 weeks. Bare in mind that in their last filing they crossed the threshold on the 2 Sep (Fri) and filed on the 5 SEp (Mon).

I believe that in all likelihood people selling now are mainly PI’s who got their shares at the last placing. They see the SP dropping and sell to lock in profits. IMO.

If it was BGF selling then we would have had a TR-1 … we didn’t.

In my opinion sellers now are PIs who got their shares at the 1.80p placing, they saw BGF selling above 3p, they then saw the SP falling below 3p and failing to go up … they sell to lock in some profit as they say their profit shrinking.

SP dropping attracts further sells.

Magoo, ofcourse I hold Angus, why else would I be here? I been holding Angus for the last 5 years … is eventually paying off.

DRB, is a lot better than than 700k per month.

Oct22 to Jun23 are the most heavily hedged months (1.75 mil therms).

During these heavily hedged months, just the flow from the two wells (B2&A4) stabilising at 5.5 MMSCFD will pay the hedge and give Angus in excess of £1.2 mil in a month at 300p/therm.

Even if the sidetrack fails to achieve its target of 5 MMSCFD and achieves only 2 MMSCFD say, then this is another £2mil for Angus at 300p/therm. Ofcourse 5 MMSCFD is another £5 mil at 300p/therm.

This is a revenue of £3 to £6 mil + per month during hedge …. This is BIG.

Herbert, I don’t take offence, my calcs below are 100% correct :)

You see, what people forget is the fact that Angus gets a cut out of the hedged flow. For example, the October hedge is set at 52.05p. So, in simple terms, if it is 300p per therm, the hedge gets 247.95 and Angus gets 52.05p per therm.

Ofcourse, there is the hedged volume, to explain this, let’s keep it simple and make the hedged volume 100 MMSCFD per month, 1.08 mil therms, using 10,800 therms per MMSCFD as used by Angus in their calculation. Let’s also say the hedge is set at 50p, as a hypothetical case to explain what is happening here in simple terms.

In this example, for Angus to meet hedge requirement for the month (i.e. 100 MMSCFD) only needs to produce 0.9 mil therms or 83.333 MMSCFD in a month to break even.

If Angus meets the hedged volume in a month, then Angus pays the hedge and takes a cut. In this example, if Angus produced exactly 100 MMSCFD (1.08 mil therms) then

The Hedge gets 1.08 x (£3-£0.5) mil = £2.7 mil
Angus gets 1.08 x £0.5 mil = £0.54 mil

The essence of it is we can produce less than the hedge (up to a certain amount, in the above hypothetical example down to 83.333 MMSCFD and make a profit (at 83.333 is break even, below is a loss) - Not many realise this.

When Angus produces exactly the same amount as the hedge amount, Angus definitely (100%) makes a profit.

When the hedge amount is exceeded the profits multiply … Happy Days.

Draft, the seller that was declaring was BGF who bought their shares at 3p. Yes they, could sell below, saw it happening before, but we had millions and millions of shares traded below 3p and no Tr-1 filed.

In my opinion sellers now got their shares at the last placing at 1.80p.

All the SP gains made since August 10 … wiped out today.

Going to be a very slow climb up. For now we could drift sideways or may even drop lower unless we get more positive news or PR is pumped up.

HITS,

You are not calculating it properly. The value of therms/MMSCFD used in the Angus calcs is about 10,800, see page 49 of the 2021 presentation. Divide therms with MMSCFD.

Anyway, let’s take your figures and £3 per therm. Let’s just look at October with 1.75 mil therms hedged, and let’s just say we only produced 1.7 mil therms, a bit short on therms. The October hedge is set at 52.05p

Now revenue: 1.7 mil therms X £3/therm = £5.1 mil
Owe the hedge: 1.75 mil therms (£3.00 - £0.5205) =£4.339 mil

Angus’s cut = £5.1-£4.339= £0.761 million

…. Angus makes money (almost £1 mil) even though the gas produced is below the hedge. How about that?

Ofcourse the flow is going to be higher and money made is more.

As I posted earlier, the flow from B2&A4 wells more than meet the hedge commitments from now onwards.

Sidetrack revenue ALL goes to Angus … Angus has now become a gold mine … oh no … is better than a gold mine.

Sit tight and buckle up. Hold on to your hat :)

Bid down to 2.50p …. Crazy!

These sells must be coming from the placing and makes no sense - why buy the placing for the drill and then sell before the drill is even started? I don’t believe is BGF, else we would have had a TR-1.

2.50p!!! Pity I don’t have anymore cash. The SP has to go up, MCap valuation is too low at this level.

That’s a few. We better find a buyer!

Rob, you are welcome.

Angus has been transformed in to a gold mine … in fact better than a gold mine.

BV, I am afraid to put a price/earnings ratio on Angus … I may get dizzy from that height :)

Wyn, how many creditors do you think are involved in addition to the drawdown facility?

BV,

17/09 - 4.88 MMSCFD
18/09 - 5.08 MMSCFD
19/09 - 5.38 MMSCFD

We are very likely at 5.5 MMSCFD today with stabilised flows (I expect an RNS very soon_

Not many realise what 5.5 MMSCFD does … is money in Angus bank … irrespective of hedge and irrespective of delays …

5.5 MMSCFD gives Angus:

about £1 mil for September after the hedge is paid
More than £1 mil for October after the hedge is paid
… and for Nov … to June 23

More for subsequent months as the hedge amount drops

5 MMSCFD from the additional compressor and sidetrack will give Angus an extra £5 mil a month (all to Angus, since hedged is covered by B2/A4)

Above calculated at a conservative £3 per therm.

Sit tight and hold on to your hat mate.

Whether sold or holding, good luck to all of us.

For me is now a hold. If I crystallise a gigantic loss and then a sale comes through the pain will be too much to bear. Less pain in loosing the relatively small amount that my holding has been reduced to.

Ocelot.BV, thanks. I will pin it to my home page :)

Serif, agree - Ireland could be as “early” as next year. Energy shortages will see to that and I am hoping that they do have some lengthy blackouts, what they need to sober up and kick the Greens out.

DGU, shareholders are always last in line. Creditors always get priority. If it folds we’ll be s c r e w e d.