RE: Takeover Guidance10 May 2021 22:15
Fozdog, not sure I entirely agree Ganfeng's Holding prevents another party coming in. Agree it's unlikely but certainly not impossible. A determined prospective Purchaser could freely start to hoover up Shares and build a substantial enough position to block Ganfeng's Bid or force it to increase or withdraw its Offer.
Notwithstanding this, if the Board & Ganfeng get wind of there being sufficient Shareholders who will vote against, I wouldn't be surprised if Ganfeng make a higher Bid than 67.5p, just to persuade any doubters or 'swing voters' across the line. Not an unheard of tactic, by any means.
I think johnpwh's figures say it all though. We're just minnows in a much bigger pond of Shareholders that exist and who either won't vote at all or are unaware of the existence of this ChatBoard or are on other ChatBoards, etc. Consequently, the only way to get our voices heard (unless we get a Reddit type mob on board!), and to glean whether our strategy of voting Ganfeng's Offer down is working or has a chance of working, is to lobby/write to key Shareholders & Stakeholders, as well as writing to the Board.
Not an exhaustive list, but I suggest:
1) Key Shareholders e.g. M&G, Janus Henderson, Platform Securities & HL Nominees, etc. This list may change daily in a Bid Situation, but are subject to Forms 8.3 being submitted a day or so later. At least we may get a flavour for which way they intend to vote.
2) Kwasi Kwarteng, MP, Secretary of State for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (aka the Business Secretary) and head of the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, which is responsible for the new National Security & Investment Unit.
3) Your own MP.
4) Sir Iain Duncan Smith, MP for Chingford & Woodford Green & former Conservative Party Leader, who, as reported in the Daily Telegraph on 6th May 2021, has already said: "The Government should now call this in and block it. China already has three-quarters of the world’s rare earth minerals and an even larger share of their processing. Rare earth minerals like lithium are to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th century and deals like this are all about taking control of strategic materials to make the West go to China for them.”
5) The Prime Minister himself.
6) Editors of the Daily Telegraph & the Sunday Telegraph, the Guardian, The Times & the Sunday Times, the Daily Mail & the Mail on Sunday, etc., etc.
7) Sam Armstrong of foreign policy think-tank the Henry Jackson Society. Also quoted in Daily Telegraph article of 6 May: "The National Security and Investment Act, which became law just last week, allows ministers to block acquisitions that risk hostile states obtaining a stranglehold over critical resources. There cannot be a better candidate for the first ministerial call-in under the new legislation than this deeply worrying acquisition that risks handing control over a critical resource of the future to a genocidal state."