Member Info for Xhita

$5.9719 lb

+0.032

(+0.54%)

I am really surprised this is so strong with America in such a weak negotiating position.

I assume the shortage of copper looming is outweighing the global recession risk

Looking strong

pound $5.9585 +0.019

ton $13,347.13 +42.34

I keep reading copper above $6 but it's not. Currently $5.9396

It's nonsense to see the share price drop today by more than airlines that are about to run short of fuel and are paying double the pre war prices. Jet fuel refining capacity will take years to re-establish.

The near term may produce a substantial reduction in global supply of copper supply as sulfuric acid supply tightens.

Fortunately Atalaya won't be affected in their normal copper production process which doesn't use sulfuric acid just the E-LIX system which seems to be in a off on experimental phase.

This could be an additional driver for copper prices.

Copper spot prices remain strong, currently $5.9750 or $13385 a ton

I think it depends on your view of long term.

Certainly if there are any cancellations or loss of business this year is a bust. Is it possible to make a loss this year? Yes if parts of summer are cancelled. Margins are very tight and the profit is made in summer.

I don't know where the bottom is but I do know that we are nowhere near it if we see anything other than minimal disruption. If we see cancellations as I have been saying for a month now from may week 1 and it extends into summer it's going to be a disaster.

The jet fuel price will stay elevated for at least 12 months. In this time airlines aren't going to contract new hedge agreements.

MT it's not the markets first rodeo.

They have become accustomed to his continuous lying and wishful thinking. It shows that as a proxy of Israel in this war they aren't decision makers.

This is simply to allow Israel to steal Lebanon without Iran intervening to support Hezbollah.

I tend to ignore UK news as it's inherently pro America and Israel. When you look across Europe and the middle east media it's clear that we are back to trump threatening more bombing and Iran not giving a damn about it. This is very dangerous because Iran can destroy refining capacity that can cause a jet fuel shortage for years to come.

Currently to be oil price is irrelevant as it's totally discounted from the jet fuel price. Places are drowning in crude, it's too big r refining capacity where the problems start.

This is literally the he most exposed sector. The ups are lovely but the downs will be deep and lasting.

I fully expect to be buying a long term holding at £8 to £9 once the weight of the long term jet fuel situation is realised.

Airlines margins are tight and the likely costs of a missed summer or a loss making summer will take years to recover from.

Largely the market has been slow to work out the obvious, it was obvious 4 weeks ago what would happen. You can't lose 40% of global supply and carry on as normal

It's not the first time trump has pumped the market with lies and it won't be the last.

The Iranian propaganda is far superior to the Americans and has proven much more realistic.

Trump is unable to keep his mouth shut and a global liability. This morning trump says a deal is near Tehran says there's progress but both sides are a long way apart. I believe Tehran.

So the jet fuel situation will be critical in Europe in a couple of weeks. The EU plan is clear.

There's lots that can be done to minimise the cancellations and those actions will start May week 1. Airlines seek survival through salvaging something of the summer..Jet2 are well funded but are very exposed as are easyJet.

That's regardless of the situation in the strait which is 6 weeks away on the quickest delivery.

If the war ended today jet fuel shortage, high prices and disruption would last at least 12 months.

Unfortunately it was a given that trump would destabilise the global economy and ultimately destroy everything he touches. He is a special kind of stupid that never should be given any power.

Yeah it's closed and until trump stops lying it's not going to be open.

Cancellations are looming unfortunately across Europe.

40% of the worlds jet fuel is missing, 55% if you include jet fuel made globally from murban crude.

This deficit is mounting and in 3 weeks some flights won't be going.

It appears the conditions attached by Iran really means the strait isn't truly in any different situation than it was yesterday. I guess we have to see how it goes.

The Iranians control the movement, the vessels have to transit by the Iranian route and payment may be required for safe transit.

This means Iran will throttle traffic I suspect.

Trump is in a real mess here.

So MrDC can I see your projection then for the daily profit with your rationale.

Copper up . 5% share price down 2%.

It does make you wonder where the sense is.

On a like for like basis Q1 results should show a profit of around €38.6m. obviously the numbers are destroyed by the low grade and low total ton produced. Also there could be extra costs involved in rehab of the pit.

Thinking about it many costs are fixed so whilst diesel and explosives may be up. Labour and other fixed costs spread over tons produced should be under

So from Q4 we know that 11600 tons makes an EBITDA of €41.447m and a normalised profit of €38.6m.

The minimum target at 50000 to 54000 tons a year is 12500 a quarter. Lets take the middle because although we know they are unlikely to achieve it this year given Q1, Q2 should be much better and back on the fractional target. 52000 is 13000 a quarter which looks very achievable now.

So 13000 tons over 11600 in Q4 makes an over achievement by 1.12.

Therefore €38.6m X 1.12 is €43.242m

Then we consider an average realised price at $5.90 now. As a proportion of the Q4 realised price ($5.10) the over achievement is 1.157. Therefore the actual profit is €43.242m X 1.157

Therefore a like for like profit of €50m.

90 days in a quarter.

Therefore €555555 a day. Convert to £ and it's under £500000 by a whisker but now we have a pile of cash attracting interest.

It's based on real numbers in Q4. Obviously costs may be up but it's what it is

£7.80 just ridiculous. Buys outweigh sells by 90000.

I assume they are squeezing the price to rip off a million pound seller. I guess we wait to see that trade.

The share price is at least £1.50 too cheap here. At $13000 ton this business makes £500000 a day.

The current spot is $5.9536 but I take your point that it was £10 by the same measure, I assume it's a futures price you have. I can only assume that there's a large sell order because there seems to be plenty of buying interest and buys have exceeded sells by a wide margin.

I suspect the difference is the find raiser producing extra shares but as we know that's cash held now and at £10 a share.

Copper is $5.9551 currently. Futures $6.09

The company makes £500000 a day at this price....