Member Info for Xhita

The story can't move forward without funds. They have spent $100m getting TK this far. Now it's on the verge of realisation and massively de-risked.

Come back in 2 years at 10p a share and moan about it then.

News that they are moving through the project timeline on time and on budget is highly significant. Harry has already said they control when and how the debt is repaid. The profit on even $4000 oz is huge at mill plate volume.

The share price will be driven by proximity to these transformational events 18-24 months is way too long for most to process. As these stages are ticked off the plan becomes reality and the share price will increase.

There's plenty of opportunity to get in but as we move through the timeline the price will increase.

Currently a few traders appear active and people recognising the opportunity.

I will be buying the dips ahead.

Wayne I don't think he'll have much to say for a while.

This quarter the early works are finishing. Security fencing, site access, early stripping and preparation for mining activities. The fleet has been on site for months.

They are building the new houses and the amenities for the displaced population. The displaced population have vacated all the land that they need immediate access to.

The road for heavy vehicles is being built and the electric connection is going in. The pylons arrived several months ago.

Bulk earthworks commence this quarter in preparation for civil works from Lycopodium starting at the end of the summer.

Does anyone know who's building the SAG mill??. It's manufactured outside of Africa. This is one of the big ticket items the timeline hangs on.

The news ahead should be on these steps completed and a photo gallery following the progress.

Those who followed the Proyecto Rio Tinto restart will know what to expect.

As for the share price, there will be some dark days ahead but excitement will start to build and the share price will appreciate as we head through the timeline.

If you don't make at least that then the world has stopped turning. The next 100 weeks will be transformational for the dynamics of this company.

From promises to delivery, from loss making to substantially profit making and from low to high confidence.

By every metric IF the world doesn't stop turning the situation will be 10x better and eventually the valuation will catch up.

Right now we sit in the dark controlled by ebb and flow traders

Yes they'll definitely go ahead, it's not marginal by any means and they have a DFS under consideration that will have very strong numbers. They will be pushing Kefi to commit I am sure. They haven't come this far for nothing, to scrap it with crazy high Gold, Copper and silver prices.

As a hands off entity they could sell to an approved investor or an offtake specialist like Trafigura.

In fact it's the most likely outcome on the sell side.

That is assuming it's kefi to sell and the rights sit with them to decide. If Kefi don't commit to funding the controlling interest could possibly force them to dilute. Without knowing the contract we are blind.

In Kefi position I would raise money and stay in the game. However Jeff is back and they can use this money to locate and mega-drill TK2 and TK3 in rapid time.

I think we'll know in the next weeks or months and a industry standard will set the asset value.

At that point the market cap of £177m will look like a joke.

SA fully funded with a construction decision is worth money. I don't know how much because currently it's just an opportunity to fund 13% of what a $300m project for 13% of the reward but with very little actual effort or corporate distraction. It's managed by a very experienced contract works family who have very deep pockets from SA government contracts and works across the region.

I think given the 13% returns it's a no brainer to support because it's a great mixed metal project in a country hungry to diversify.

Obviously being SA there's many institutions and SA banks that would fund the kefi 13% once the construction decision is made. However those banks will expect to be co-funding with Kefi. Possibly $10m from Kefi would be enough.

Yes they could sell it now but I suspect they will get it valued and we'll see a push to recover this share price by driving up the asset value of the investments.

If you take of $70m or $100m of the market cap it looks ridiculous.

At 3 to 4.5p a share it would look valued by risk weighting now I suspect. It has to triple in the next 12 months in my opinion.

I suspect $6000 oz is achievable in the near term. However we have to understand that the higher gold goes the less resilience our money has so the more money we need to exist.

Gold has already run away in my opinion and is already on the fringes of crazy we seem to have something of a fracture between disaster and gold forming already.

With trumps stupidity and the disaster of the US economy/debt looming the ability of gold to offset failure is looking weaker every day.

Until America gets a stable, mature and educated government we can expect more stupidity. This can get extreme very quickly.

I don't see much actual physical, technical or natural risk in TK. I see the biggest risk as what may happen away from the gold project. LSE risk, personal wealth risk and UK political risk. Clearly if people and institutions need cash they liquidate assets.

The patient will be the winners here. Don't worry about buying at the bottom, worry about being forced to sell.

There's plenty in your view I don't agree with.

Dilution is irrelevant if the gold price is super high. There's a limit that the market will allow the share price to travel regardless of the maths. That's based upon the profit people have made on paper. That churn will hold the share price for a long period after the first commercial pour, the first production year and the first dividend as people unwind their positions. It's about human nature and risk. An on paper 5x your stake cost, 10x your stake cost, where's you point where you would check out. That's not based on market cap. It's based on individual greed, fear and risk.

So the important point is the mine gets built and Kefi can afford to hold on to 86% of it. That's the primary objective.

So if the mine is finished 6 months late because they don't have the funds to buy inflated goods when they need them, because of the war. What happens to confidence and profit. 6 months delay will cost much more than the placing.

When the decision was made it was unknown if other countries would become involved, if the war would escalate. I think that it was a sensible move but I think the strike price was much too low. That sold existing holders out.

As for Saudi I fully expect as they have said to be run as a separate entity and that'll need funds for sure.

The share price is low because of the war and the fund raiser. Value needs to be added to move it up. As they move through the construction hitting targets the project derisks and the share price will increase. However the big moves won't come until the technical risks are proven and gold cash is pouring in.

Adams will be at the helm well into steady state production in my view. A substantial exploration campaign will begin and TK2 and TK3 will be identified.

Clearly this isn't for everyone and I can see plenty of investors will quit early or not get onboard at all.

Kefi just needs enough to see it through. The share price will certainly go down and up but currently it's driven by the placing and the trump stupidity risk.

Time will tell

Are they clearly dumping. Certainly I am not seeing that. Volume is very low. Several times I struggled to buy with no quotes available. The ebb and flow is created by day traders in my opinion. Yesterday there was a sale of just 3.9m that reversed the day. If they were working a large sell position they wouldn't kill the golden goose like that. I suspect as you say that's becoming less of a force now.

The placing was great for me and ultimately it will be great for all long term holders.

I suspect Harry saw risk in the trump stupidity with Iran and wanted additional security from the placing. It was a knee jerk for sure. I don't think he was wrong but the strike price was well under and could have easily gone through at 1.4 or 1.5p. Hardly surprising it was over subscribed.

Dilution is a fact unfortunately and I am of the view that it becomes irrelevant if the project projections are adequately robust and conservative.

The project at $3000 oz looks very strong, however $4500 to $5500 is more likely in my opinion. At this level the dilution becomes irrelevant.

The important thing is the mine is built, on budget and on time. If they have contingency and flexibility they can offset that risk.

We may well see further dilution especially if the want to ramp up exploration but I think that it helps to have your eyes fixed on the goal and not on the journey.

It takes me 2 years to double my stake trading. If I can beat that I am happy.

An entry at this point around 1.3p is the minimum risk profile so far in the evolution of the Tula Kapi project curve. Given the project is fully funded and well into the construction timeline.

The entry point is reduced substantially by the recent placing and middle east conflict. The placing safeguards the project financials but has the added benefit of destroying share price momentum allowing for a substantial investment entry. Momentum will be re-established but over time.

The project is fully funded and fully supported. Currently the population previously domicile are being relocated to the new village under construction and some are in rented accommodation to allow land clearance.

The timeline appears realistic for Africa especially when compared to other projects in the last 10 years completed by the same contractors. TK also has no artisanal relocation which is often a big hurdle in relocation and compensation.

The risks are funding, permits and permission, local objections and filings, access, weather and conflict. These appear to be met or mitigated with strong local and government support. Weather is moderate and elevation is not extreme. Conflict is something to watch but currently the location is secure by African standards.

Technical risks. The technical risks are ore performance, mill performance, recovery, stripping and mining and human performance. These are mitigated with the technical studies and contractor experience which appears robust. The similarities to WA and simple geology makes the technical risk controlled and partially mitigated.

Investor risk. The share price is a concern because it's fundamentally ridiculous given the value of TK and the near term rewards. 10 or 20 years ago this would not have happened but currently the LSE in particular is chronically short of investors and overrun with traders and gamblers. This creates substantial opportunity to manipulate the share price. It creates non sensical daily reversals like we had on Friday. Given the low volume the share price can be diverted and abused with just a few £10k trades. This is the primary risk to investor confidence. The share needs to attract substantial long term holders to establish and continue share price appreciation. It's classic for investors to sell down as the share price increases and these shares need to be rehomed to continue appreciating. That's definitely a challenge.

Whilst the Lassonde curve is a well used model it's largely inaccurate now given the lack of strategic investors in the retail environment. 2 years is well beyond the threshold of most. The valley of death is actually now extending well into construction through to batch sampling and trial production. That's potentially 18+ months. In the time the share price could easily double of triple but it could also drift in response to a declining gold price or geopolitical events. This is possible and likely given the stupidity of the US administration and President.

I

You'll be waiting a long time to find out you are wrong.

Atalaya is my second largest long term holding now. I am out of my trading position there for now but will be back.

Every board has someone like you. It's good to know who you are.

I'll post again when I feel like it

I think that they'll find it very difficult not to pay a maiden dividend on first full year of production. Even a token payment to establish a course of conduct. If they want to be in the main market it'll be expected.

Yes of course they will look to invest in peripheral targets to TK and will want to add value to other opportunities but if the gold price is anywhere near the current level those investments will be irrelevant.

5 years isy investment window, I don't need the money and here in Spain I can earn around 1% only after tax on savings so the bar is very low.

13:43:20 1.32 903,899 Buy* 11.93k O

13:43:01 1.319 829,133 Unknown* 10.94k O

My buys today. I will buy more next week. Building a holding for a long term hold into production ramp up.

Hoping for a good return on €200k.

Longfell surely that depends on the then share price and try he then profit. Clearly the profit numbers are like telephone numbers and I would be a bit upset to receive 1 or 2% of that

You are truly living up to your name. That's a ridiculous post.

"Whats kefis current dividend policy?" wtf are you talking about.

Obviously they are loss making.

I said it's wholly realistic for them to pay .0.9p a share dividend. It's the norm to return profits to shareholders.

In a business that makes massive profit paying 6 or 8% (60% of the current share price) a year is wholly reasonable and realistic. Of course they don't have a dividend policy now, they have no profit.

Why would they even discuss it now.

I am thinking that your posts are strange and probably best ignored

Any thoughts of massive dividends to shareholders could only be dependent on Kefi sitting on this project only. Of course as always there will be other opportunities to be had and empires to build. Shareholders will be rewarded for sure and I think it's wholly realistic that we could get 60% of the current share price a year as a dividend so 0.9p a share. I can't see the share price below 10p a share at that point and likely it'll be 12 to 15p with a strong gold performance.

Just my thoughts

I was in auction at 1.36 but it didn't quite make it. The auction UT are matched trades so will be a general split.

I live in Spain and up to last year I could only trade in auctions but now the EU has direct market access.

Most auction participants will not have direct access, maybe US or outside the EU, UK and Ireland.

I participate in auctions most days. This share has an auction only at the end of the day, the opening auction is rarely held. Often a trader can exit in auction and re-enter cheaper the next morning

However there's a point to having an independent valuation.

KEFI is currently taking independent advice on the 'fair market value' of its 13% holding and is also in consultation with its Auditors as to the appropriate carrying value on the Company's balance sheet.

This was also my buy. Shown in red again. This took a while to fill and is part of a £15 purchase

12:59:40 1.342 865,600 Sell* 11.62k

Yes that's 6 months ramp up then. It takes around that time if all goes to plan. Once construction is complete they'll start limited production running the equipment for a limited time in each sample. It'll produce some gold. It'll take 6 months for commercial quantities to result.

It's just the way it is