Member Info for Xhita

It's hard to understand this share price strength.

Mass cancellations are looming and the share price is up. I just don't get it.

Industry guidance today to hotel operators. easyJet are saying this publicly.

CEO Kenton Jarvis has also warned of an impending fuel crisis, suggesting that the situation in Europe could rapidly change in just a matter of weeks. Jarvis said,

"I’m confident for a week or two that we’re all good. I’m probably confident that we’re good for three weeks. Am I confident over four weeks? Nobody’s telling me don’t worry about it halfway into May."

Just to be clear this is a dynamic situation.

The airlines need to know 15 days before that there will be fuel at home and abroad. There will be maybe 20 to 25% of the normal volume available in 4 weeks time. The April deficit is at least 700000mt . That's all the likely European stored capacity.

Out of caution flights week one of may will be cancelled at week 3 in April.

The transit time is 6 weeks from the gulf and it's likely that there's damage to repair at some of the facilities.

If the boats started moving today it's too late to avoid cancellations.

The EU is acquiring jetA1 for South Korea, India and west Africa but volumes will be small.

We'll know more soon but the guidance I have is to reach domestic markets which we are now doing.

After Easter it'll be headline news

Europe won't run out of aviation fuel because they produce 200000 my a month. However they require 6 times that. 75 to 80% of flights will be cancelled week 2 of May. The airlines will start cancelling after Easter.

That's guaranteed even if the strait opens tomorrow.

At $5.49 they make €450000 a day 7 days a week profit based on €42m for Q1 which they likely exceeded.

€38.4m Q4 25 based on $5.10. much of Q1 was closer to $6 average.

It's insane this dropped more today than airlines that will in 3 weeks be grounding their aircraft. It's absolutely mental.

Why does the conflict have to end for it to rerate. It's much better placed during the conflict than most of the other shares. If America invades Iran it will take several years for America to realise they can't win.

The copper price is robust and geographically the business is very well sheltered.

The company is making substantial profit every day with very little impact from the war in the middle east.

The share price looks very cheap with copper at $5.50. I took more posted in red as a sell.

Q1 comes to an end. The weather this year has been much better than last year. They lost maybe 2 days only to flooding following the January ice storm. It's going to be a great earner with consistently high realised prices.

I am wondering if we'll see any safe haven interest here.

Risks are limited in my opinion

Diesel fuel availability is a concern, global recession threatening the copper price is another but I don't think any business will escape the pending global disaster.

Jet fuel will ground flights, high costs for shipping, high costs for road haulage.

This seems a place where we could see a 15+% increase in quick time.

1863 the price isn't the issue. The availability is the issue.

The EU imports 950 000 mt of jet fuel a month. The last tanker is en route to Malta from the middle east and is currently off of the Liberia coast on its 6 week journey.

It's going to arrive on 9th April. It's around 128 000 mt. After that there's no more.

The EU produces around 200 000 mt a month. The requirement is around 1 200 000 mt each month.

The airlines cancel more than 2 weeks ahead so we'll get the first cancellations in week 3 of April for week 1 of May.

The UK situation is equally as dire. Obviously they need to know 100% 2 weeks in advance that fuel is available at both ends if the journey.

Looking at the US. The US is an exporter of jet fuel from the east and an importer from South Korea on the west coast.

We can expect exports to be banned as China and Thailand has already. This creates a massive issue as the EU imports 66 000 mt a month from South Korea and 64 000 Mt from India who are considering export bans currently.

I would describe the situation as critical

Mr Pullar indeed true. The airlines will be cancelling flights in a few weeks as fuel supply becomes critical.

That's a guaranteed scenario given the look lead time for delivery. Even if the war ends today by the end of April they'll be rationing and selecting the most profitable routes to fly.

The jet fuel squeeze is very specific and Europe is very poorly placed to seek alternatives.

We had extreme weather in January. I am about 150 Kms from the mine site but go there quite often as I have family nearby. My car was destroyed in the granizada in January and my house was damaged. I suspect they had some issues at the mine from flooding . The rest of the quarter was unusually modest.

The wholesale electric price here is very low but very volatile. It jumps up and down by 30% almost daily. However Atalaya has a deal with Endesa including the over capacity on the panels installed.

Copper is showing unexpected resilience in my opinion and it doesn't look at all shaky around $5.40-5.55. These are extremely positive levels for this business. I am surprised to see the share price still mired around £7. I don't think it would look at all racy starting with an 8 rather than a 7.

Diesel fuel is up but not hugely here in Spain. Currently I am paying €1.65 which is up for €1.31 before the current trump hit prices.

Apart from that it's business as usual.

We'll see the Touro permits in the next few weeks in my opinion as site preparation is underway. That itself requires a permit

Well it's in black and white in the update

· Q1 FY26: travelled volumes +14%

· Q2 FY26: travelled / departure volumes +34%.

Obviously we don't know the margins or if any cancelled before travelling but also more may have booked to go almost immediately

The year got off to s flying start. Much of the excess will be city breaks I am sure but still excellent.

The 10% is bookings so not included travelled. Obviously they do 75% in H2.

H1 will produce an adjusted profit around £9m if the parameters are as last year.

Indeed it's ridiculous. Jet2 and easyJet has much higher risk attached with jet fuel and cancellations quite possible in the near term.

However it was OTB that dropped heavily on update day. The timing was poor and unfortunate for OTB

Now we have a large short position that I suspect will be unwinding in a hurry at some point looking for several million shares.

I started to move back in on down days and we'll see how it is. I suspect that OTB will exceed last years profit.

We find out how H1 did in May but we know it's around 24% ahead on bookings over last year.

Highest short position ever. It's going to be tough to buy back like 5 million shares.

I am starting to buy back now as a point will be reached where the majority of people decide life goes on despite the war in the middle east and they book as normal.

There's substantial evidence that's happening already.

I will be back Dave. Ultimately this will get to a point where it's so bullied that it can't fall further as nobody is selling I don't think we are far away and the share price is ridiculous given the commercial reality. The shorts have to buy in order to realise a profit. It's getting on for 4 million shares now.

I am gathering information about the current booking situation in the areas mentioned in the update.

In the short term it can go much lower in my opinion. Trumps great global recession is on the way and that's going to hit the value of all metals. The only way to handle this at the moment is as a trader. Plenty of opportunities to make money and have a free or reduced risk holding. I suspect copper is going below $5 in the near future

I sold down around £180k of these yesterday afternoon and this morning on opening.

Good luck everyone.

Trump is humiliating himself and America on a global platform.... again.

5 days carries him to the weekend and closed markets.

He is a ridiculous fool.