Member Info for x54v

Yes, CF strongly aware of the need for deals judging by his recent presentation and will be working very hard to ensure they are delivered.

33:32 - "I'm staking my reputation between now and the summer time...we will have 3 to 4 major contract wins in Hvivo publicly announced."

51:30 "I have most of my friends, colleagues, relations invested in the company so nobody has more exposure than I if we don't deliver."

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/02/12/video-open-orphans-cathal-friel-details-ambitions-2020-plans-following-5-3m-raise-in-exclusive-presentation-orph/

The upside potential according to CF is a doubler within a month or two and a triple by the year end. Happy with either of those scenarios.

CF also confident enough to invest £2.5 million of his own money here, and he's only going to do that if he thinks the upside above is realistic.

27:53 - "People coming in today should look at getting 2 to 3 times their money by Christmas when we exit."

49:42 "I think short term over the coming days and weeks, I'm not going to get obsessed if the share price is up or down 10%. I'm looking for the double when we get rerated in a month or two and a triple by the year end."

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/02/12/video-open-orphans-cathal-friel-details-ambitions-2020-plans-following-5-3m-raise-in-exclusive-presentation-orph/

"Unearthing a potential 100 bagger - the micro-cap investor's Holy Grail.

I've done it once before, with #BMN. I wasn't brave enough to enjoy all of the upside.

I won't make the same mistake with #AVCT @avacta.

How it COULD achieve multi-£bn status ??

https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta"

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1235132588441907200

AVCT currently has a market cap of just £43m.

Myles McNulty's note from yesterday highlights the massive upside potential here from the current market cap to a £1billion+ company.

A few snippets below:

"Given that antibodies currently dominate drugs markets worth over $125bn – and forecast to exceed $200bn by 2023 – there is evidently a colossal commercial opportunity for Avacta, if the Company can successfully prove the efficacy and safety profile of Affirmer-based therapies in first-time-in-human trials"

"The implications of this are staggering: the notoriously dire side effects associated with chemotherapy treatment could be largely eradicated via relatively straightforward reformulations of generic chemotherapy drugs"

"We believe that Avacta is chronically undervalued at the current price and offers substantial upside to investors in the near-term."

"We feel that it is entirely plausible that Avacta could, in as little as 3 years’ time, command a market capitalisation of over £1bn"

"we believe that there is a genuine possibility of Avacta becoming a billion-pound company within three years, if not sooner"

"Avacta’s Affirmer platform alone could potentially be worth several hundred million dollars by the end of next year"

"our investment thesis for Avacta is founded on our view that at its current market capitalisation of £40m, the risk / reward ratio is quite simply wrong. Very wrong. We believe that the wider market has not perceived the inherent value already within the Company, and its relatively near-term blue-sky potential."

Potential £7.5 million contract in the discussion stage by the sounds of that presentation:

17:41 - "Customer A came to us recently. They wanted to talk about a challenge study. Now we're combined we can actually talk to them about providing all of these capabilities to them, and suddenly a potential contract that we were looking at that might have been £3 million is now worth £7.5 million going forward. Not signed yet, but it's in that discussion stage."

"our view that at its current market capitalisation of £40m, the risk / reward ratio is quite simply wrong. Very wrong. We believe that the wider market has not perceived the inherent value already within the Company, and its relatively near-term blue-sky potential."

"At its current share price of 22.75p, Avacta has a market capitalisation of £40.0m. It has net cash of circa £8m, which is sufficient to fund operations through to end 2020. We believe that Avacta is chronically undervalued at the current price and offers substantial upside to investors in the near-term. However, the purpose of this note is to examine the long-term investment thesis. We feel that it is entirely plausible that Avacta could, in as little as 3 years’ time, command a market capitalisation of over £1bn – and crucially for the investment case, with very limited, or indeed quite possibly no, dilution to the existing equity base along the way."

---

Over £1bn vs £40m market cap. That is some serious upside potential.

Excellent comprehensive note just issued by Myles McNulty:

https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis.pdf

The recent company presentation is also a useful starting point for those starting to research the excellent prospects here:

https://www.openorphan.com/sites/openorphan/files/Open_Orphan_Investor_Deck_0120_2.pdf

bunsenburner123 - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu4nK4Pxe3Q from 9:25 onwards

All competitors are rated at 2 or 3x revenues, ORPH is currently only rated at 1x revenues.

So currently significantly undervalued compared to peers.

CF reckons the share price should re-rate to 2 or 3 times revenues in line with competitors.

IG interview from last month worth watching. Great opportunity here with the current coronavirus situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cu4nK4Pxe3Q

Any contracts related to Coronavirus in the near future and the ORPH share price could really take off. An ideal place for the company to be focussing its efforts given the current situation.

Extensive coverage in Shares magazine this week:

"This latest 3 page article from @SHARESmag may be of interest.

“supports product development for customers developing antivirals, vaccines and respiratory therapeutics, all particularly relevant and topical in the environment of heightened awareness of the #Coronavirus in 2020”

https://twitter.com/OpenOrphan/status/1232972375366520833

Shares very much in demand today so far. Plenty of buying going on at these levels.

And still much cheaper than the 6.1p CF paid in the recent placing. A bargain here.

Chunky. Someone is keen.

https://twitter.com/tozzer121/status/1232725762664488965

Quite a flurry of buying all of a sudden.

Heavy volume on the daily.

"Serial dealmaker Cathal Friel has an audacious plan: build and sell a pharma services company in two years. It could fetch as much as £100 million. What exactly is his plan? And will it work?"

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/10331/built-to-sell-can-cathal-friel-build-a-80m-company-in-two-years-and-then-sell-it

--

"It could fetch as much as £100 million."

vs current market cap £32.2m.

https://twitter.com/VNS_Global/status/1231861461946896385

An excellent domain to be in given the escalation of the current situation. Plenty looking to invest in this area given the recent strong rises in coronavirus-related stocks.

"The Advisory Board will focus initially on guiding Open Orphan in the provision of solutions to the current Coronavirus outbreak.

The Advisory Board has been established to help the Company support product development for customers developing antivirals, vaccines and respiratory therapeutics, all particularly relevant and topical in the environment of heightened awareness of the Coronavirus in 2020."

https://investegate.co.uk/open-orphan-plc--orph-/rns/appointment-of-chair-of-advisory-board/202002200700085329D/

Check out the TSI chart and see what happened the last time Akers was buying.

He started increasing late June last year and in a couple of weeks the share price more than trebled (from 0.09 to 0.3).

https://investegate.co.uk/two-shields-inv--plc--tsi-/rns/notification-of-major-interest-in-shares/201906260700064145D

So when the coat tailers cotton on to the fact that he has been buying again, the share price could well start moving upwards rather quickly.

Quite possible too that his rate of TSI-related tweets will rise after tomorrow's GM, as did his rate of tweets related to DEV after he increased his holding there.

The increased coverage is bound to attract more investors and no doubt plenty will hang onto his coat tails as they have with DEV and ASLR. With both of them having done so well recently, investors may expect a similar significant rise to happen here.