Member Info for WorldWidePleb

Condor,

1. “240k oz v 140k oz = with both having same cost per oz. Allied is a 15 year mine,

Allied gold’s planned production can be found here on the website:https://alliedgold.com/locations/kurmuk-ethiopia/

= 200k oz (The article explains they plan to expand this beyond the nameplate)

Tulu Kapi (70%) Kefi, has a planned output of

= 200k oz

@70% Kefi that's 140k oz or 144k oz quoted by the company.

But we're not doing a valuation on production - it's resource in the ground to buy valuation. And the quality of that resource.

2. “You are confusing lower grades as somehow being more costly? But forgetting they own all of their major mining equipment. The $500m is over 15years producing 240k oz per year“

The projected mine life of Allied is longer as it has (from the projection calc) the same production rate as Kefi and a more extensive resource.

But KEFi has yet to fully explore it's resource more, which management expect to be expanded.

But this is irrelivent to the valuation read across. It doesn't make what Allied paid per unit of resource any different.

More resources = Higher price, but ‘unit cost’ (Moz) is the same.You can also do the same for a production calc and it also comes in line.

I highlight the g/t as it is a direct modifier for gold company valuations. It goes to the economics of the project and the bottom line. Hence a higher g/t fetches a permium such as higher grade oil does.

*Kefi - Auto correct

I think we're crossing wires Condor.

Allied own the asset and have $500m of development costs to pay. Cash or debt.

Kevin own the asset and have $390m of development costs. From debt.

But the Allied project is 28% more expensive to develop than Kefi.

The funding required for the Allied Gold project is $500m Vs $390m for KEFI.

The considered buy-in price per Moz for Allied excludes the development costs - These are still to be paid on top of the buying price.

Good article here: https://m.miningweekly.com/article/newly-listed-allied-gold-board-approves-500m-ethiopia-project-2023-09-12

How they choose to fund from their side is likely cash or debt. If Allied prefer cash over debt, then minus the interest cost, their project is around 28% more expensive to fund for the same output, so swings and roundabouts.

KEFI have a far superior grade to Allied.

To show their confidence in the Ethiopian project, the management stumped up $40m of the total $267m financing cover package.

Typo: the Allied Grade is 1.53g/t

It is well worth researching the Allied Gold project and cross-referencing.

Fundamentally, the Allied Gold project is exceptionally similar to Kefis Tula Kapi; gross production is the same etc. Allied larger resources (Kefi is yet to expand exploration) but with a much lower quality g/t, and more significant development costs.

&

Importantly:

Allied Gold has just set a price on what a funding-secured but undeveloped resource is worth per Moz of gold. Akin to KEFIs. Which highlights factually KEFIS valuation discrepancy.

Allied set the piece at:

£88m per Moz for 1.35g/t grading.

That grade is low.

Kefi grade at 2.65g/t is nearly 100% better.

It should carry an excellent premium to what Allied paid per Moz

So when Kefi secures funding, the Allied pricing ‘should’- This is Aim- set a lower valuation bound of £106m for Kefis 70%

Which equates to over 2p.

That's for the financing secured, and project development underway stage. Ala Allied Gold.

Then, as further de-risking occurs over the two years to completion, we should see it get near actual value, which is far north of that as per the company valuations.

We have around $5B of gold resources net to Kefi. The current valuation, in light of recent news, is wild.

And that's just 1/3 of the projects proceeding to get underway next year.

All IMO & DYOR

The figures are from the Allied Gold development just for clarity.

Status: Development

Target Production: 200koz per year

Mineral Reserves: 2.6 Moz (2022)

Acquisition Date: 2017

Grade: 1.53 g/t

Life of Mine: 12+ years

Development Capex: ~US$500million

Great find Rob.

Allied’s project is similar in many ways to Tula Kapi.

It’s due to be completed in 2026 and is in development like KEFI.

Status: Development

Target Production: 200koz per year

Mineral Reserves: 2.6 Moz (2022)

Acquisition Date: 2017

Grade: 1.53 g/t

Life of Mine: 12+ years

Development Capex: ~US$500million

Noteworthy are the grades of Tual Kapi, which is one of the predominate valuation factors. We’re at 2.65g/t - Significantly higher.

Basically, Allied paid £88m per Moz for undeveloped low grade.

Tula Kapi’s grade is worth markedly more than that, but on those metrics.

KEFI on a funding secured and undeveloped basis should be around ~ £106m market cap.

That equates to over 2p a share.

Big changes have just taken place in Ethiopian legislation with the capital control laws. I think still I noticed by many.

Brilliant set of results.

Looking forward to seeing what the exploration brings in now.

Highlights

§ Commissioning of the Pilot Plant completed successfully with the production of 10 tonnes on-specification saleable lithium concentrate.

§ Production ramp up to 250 tonnes per month planned during first quarter of the 2024 calendar year ("Q1 CY2024" and "CY2024").

§ Discussion with glass-ceramics off-taker for supply of high-purity petalite is progressing well.

§ On-going metallurgical testwork for production of battery grade lithium hydroxide.

§ Metallurgical testwork progressing to optimise production from Uis and preliminary investigations on Spodumene Hill and Lithium Ridge.

§ Lithium exploration drilling campaigns for CY2024 have been planned for all mining licence areas.

§ Discussions with Strategic Process participants are progressing. Further updates to be provided in due course.

Anthony Viljoen (CEO) commented

"We believe that our efforts throughout the year have the potential to place Andrada at the forefront of lithium development in Africa. The discovery of additional lithium-within the Company owned Lithium Ridge and Spodumene Hill also underscores the possibility that Namibia's Erongo region could be a key participant in the global lithium landscape, with the potential to host a cluster of significant mines.

The early results from the recently commissioned lithium processing pilot facility have instilled unwavering optimism. We are also pleased by the ongoing negotiations with lithium off-takers that target Andrada's involvement in all downstream lithium markets, and we look forward to providing further details as these negotiations progress. Overall, we consider the pilot plant serves as a crucial de-risking element in the Company's lithium portfolio, further bolstering our confidence in Andrada's lithium strategy.“

Fantastic update.

Having the plant working is a massive derisk.

Look at the trouble prem are having…

Is the government owned paper.

The fact that the government have chosen to put Harry Adam’s on the front page with the president as the main piece is a strong message.

He’s even above the Japanese Ambassador news etc etc.

I think the most significant sea change went by almost unnoticed.

The change of capital controls law.

That’s what got me invested. It’s a huge ‘go’ sign for international business.

Then Allied gold arriving in country off the back of that with $250m for a gold mine development - This validates the investment thesis for the banks. A significant derisk in itself. Albeit an un-voiced one.

Allied will have fired the starting gun for others to come in country.

Sweeping changes are happening in Ethiopia, and mining is central to the changes. Tulu Kapi is front and centre.

Hence, I would say the president is spending so much time at an Expo… there’s a lot of other things to do.

Still not holding my breath on timelines. But given the picking up of PR, the multiple interviews giving a specific window and pressing the fact home that the credit committee is working on the sign off,

It feels sooner rather than later. Kefi is being quite loud about the sign off as opposed to silence in other years.

“Mining sector is one of the five priorities of the government in its Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda”

From the RNS we should be getting a webinar soon then… which “will focus on Tulu Kapi Project Syndicate activities and announcements.”

Reading through the website of the expo Kefi is sponsoring this year: https://www.mintex.et/

Larger event than I thought.

This stood out on the main page

“On the sidelines of the Expo, a half-day conference with the topic ‘Investing in Ethiopia in Mining’ will be held.”

Seems a very particular topic for the event we’re the sponsors of and the company again reiterated the December timeline in the interview yesterday.

Been vocal recently. Time will tell.

Operational update - Christmas party 2023

- Santa hats have been sourced by the new additions to the LBE team.

- Secret Santa planning is well underway.

- Nominated advisors are currently working on sourcing eateries.

I see where the confusion is now. This quote is at the end of the most recent RNS. The title of the paragraph is Investor Webinar.

The event is singular not an ‘or’ “The EG or MineExpo's”

An honest miss-quote - “Ethiopian Government's mining MineExpo” - is actually written as “Ethiopian Government's MineExpo””

It's the Ethiopian government's mining exhibition. Singular. Which is usually held in Addis Ababa.

That's the one Kefi is sponsoring this year I guess?

When does Maru list in London?

….