Member Info for WorldWidePleb

Anyone have an estimation?

Hi,

Is there a place to find the estimated value of the resource?

The rising price of gold will go straight to the bottom line.

A lot of updates to look forward too over the next few quarters also.

Wow, that was a great interview.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gMCfT1wQYbQ

Great find again Rob,

Another company issued finance for an Ethiopian mine just weeks after the change in capital laws.

Verification again of the radical changes that have just taken place.

That’s now two companies bringing in money, one big, one small and two countries approaching the government publicly for mining investment.

Sea changes have happened. The market is yet to become aware of this. imo, it's a fantastic opportunity at present, given the still depressed market cap at present.

I have no doubt we’ll be hearing from Kefi about sign off sometime in the near future.

Found this article while researching a bit more. From Sep:

https://investingstrategy.co.uk/mining/gold/kefi-shares-investor-overview-for-q4-2023/

“independent technical expert Behre Dolbear International has conducted an assessment and confirmed TKGM’s readiness for the development launch.”

From the latest RNS a few weeks ago.

“The next open-forum investor webinar will be held in early December 2023 to coincide with the planned Ethiopian Government's MineExpo and will focus on Tulu Kapi Project Syndicate activities and announcements. Details of these two events will be announced in due course.”

Possibly next week?

Brilliant little company.

I’m not too sure how that concern translates into continually insulting an investor(s)- who has shared some very pertinent and useful articles .

Or, continuously and negatively commenting on small share price movements. Even when they’re positive? That isn’t behaviour that shows a long-term view.

In the meantime, to help alleviated your concern it may be best to do some research on the companies recent RNSs and of recent changes to capital legislation, government stance and recent investments in the Ethiopian mining sector.

There’s a deluge of good news and changes.

Sixnoughts,

It would be best if you didn’t concern yourself with small day-to-day price movements and such short-term targets.

You should be taking a long-term view of value creation And what the derisking milestones are.

What’s the current value of certified resources net to Kefi? How much is it worth if Kefi sold it now or after project funding approval? What’s it worth after it’s fully developed What have others just paid?

The primary derisking for the project is the financing approval, which the bank guided Kefi for mid-December.

Once given, the project will move forward at pace. There’s the money, plans and many interested parties involved, including the Ethiopian government.

That major derisking event will lead to a re-rating of Kefis risked value.

The realised market cap for Kefi, once completed and fully derisked, is magnitudes of the current despair-driven one.

The meeting you allude to is the syndicate members meeting, I believe.

We’ve been advised in the latest RNS of a Webinar due sometime soon also.

As said above, the bank gave mid-Dec guidance. There may or may not be another delay. At which point, one would expect early Q1. The capitol control law change is a significant event.

Look at the news articles below.

A few weeks after the changes, Ethiopia had Allied come into the country with a lot of cash and have now been approached by two other countries over mining investment.

I advise you to read the articles. This wasn’t happening before September the 8th.

There seems to have popped up a sudden ‘gang’ of people mal informed people, who have done little DD and have even less knowledge of business and financing.

I would genuinely recommend to those not aware of the basics to not invest in this market.

You’ll do a lot better in an index fund.

The warrants will also provide suplus cash to the company.

Why would someone pay for warrants at 1.6p when you that can buy stock at 0.7p?

Warrants are at 1.6p

From the operational update a few weeks ago…

“Group Working Capital

KEFI has working capital in place to underpin its planned runway to the intended launch of the Tulu Kapi Project finance in the coming months.”

Great RNS again, and we have someone building a stake.

Huge potential now.

Condor,

Correct. As stated in the presentation the valuation used by KEFI was at the IPO. 2022. So I use the balance sheet loan debt for that time. $220m.

AMAK begins the year 2022 with $220m of long-term debt

They've since used the FCF to pay it down, and still carry the loan on the book.

AMAK long-term loan debt

Dec- 2021: $220m

Jun- 2022: $151m

Dec- 2022: $105m

Jun -2023: $49m

In that time of paying down the loan, AMAK has also paid some large dividends to share holders.

We’ve been advised that KEFI’s development is cheaper per Moz net to KEFI to develop.

So, this only strengthens the case for KEFI. Increase the MCAP or decrease the EV.

The point is, per Moz of resources, AMAKs development has costs more. So, it adds to the KEFI valuation.

We could do an EV calculation, but we don’t have KEFIs exact projected cost. We just know it’s cheaper. So we do a general read across, which plays KEFI down. As does the 25% instead of 30%.

As mentioned, it was a just a yardstick to give us a ballpark figure of market cap post development.

Condor,

Yes, AMAK still carry the debt on book.

This goes back to the previous discussion.

KEFI also note our projects should be cheaper to develop.

Thanks again for the link Rob,

From the presentation: KSA Valuation

* AMAK (Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company) is listed on Saudi Stock Exchange and has a market cap of $1.3 billion

*

* KEFI is listed on AIM with a market cap of only 1£27M ($35M)

*

* KEFI plans to own 25-30% of GMCO and also owns majority of the 1.7Moz Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia

*

* Hawiah has lower grades to Al Masane but a 3X larger resource

*

* Jibal Qutman resource has 3X more ounces of gold

Kefi has a share of two projects in KSA, Hawiah and JQ. Let's assume a final 25% share to be conservative.

Hawiah is 3X larger than the AMAK resource but has lower grades.

JQ has 3X the gold resources of AMAK.

In summary:

AMAK: Listed on the KSA exchange

Valued at $1.3B and has 242Koz Net gold resource to its account.

Production is 0.3Mtpa

$5371M per Moz gold of resource. Producing mine.

KEFI: Valuation on AMAK metrics

JQ valuation net to KEFI:

733K oz (25% net to Kefi) = 183.25K oz

X $5371M per Moz valuation on gold resource

= $984M

Hawiah:

Detailed figures aren't given, but net to KEFI, the gold looks around the same amount as JQ.

JQ is 28.4Mt @ 0.8g/t and Hawiah is 29MT @ 0.7g/t.

So, generally, it's in the same ballpark.

Planned production for both licences: 2.0 Mtpa

Then there's the copper value for Hawiah .

Not exact, but it does give a yard-stick for the general market cap KEFI would be looking at for its KSA projects in production on the KSA exchange. 2 year timeline on each to start next year.

All excluding Tulu Kapi.

Also important to note in the KSA is KEFI's partner.

A Fortune 100 family and one of the most influential families in the KSA.

It's been a long and arduous road getting these projects to this stage, but it looks like all systems go for value creation just as gold and copper are setting highs.

Great finds again Rob,

It looks like systems go from the democratic government regarding mining and investment.

We've been advised Tula Kapi will be Ethiopia's largest exporter. Maybe on par with Allied after their recent arrival. So an essential project for the goverment. Developed and in production, the resources for Tulu Kapi are valued in Billions of $'s.

I'm happy now the seachanges have taken place, and the market is yet to notice them; KEFI has been relegated to the backwaters as, understandably people lost hope of signing after years of waiting for regulations and laws to be changed. Now the changes are done the market is yet to wake up.

There's an important distinction in recent comms. The bank contacted KEFI to advise on the signing date. Kefi wasn't guessing a date on an ambiguous comms target.

The government is on a PR Drive and needs dollars. They're doing everything they can to help and assist. KEFI now have tailwinds and not headwinds.

And Allied have come in country which has been helpful setting a lower bound valuation on what Tula Kapi is worth and what KEFI's 70% is worth undeveloped and with funding sorted. That's above 2p as a read across currently.

KEFI has a far superior grade to Allied.

In my experience, one rarely sees such a significant, calculable valuation gap and catches the reason for it being clearly removed. KEFIs current situation.

The valuation' creaming curve' that happens from explorer to production is large, as i'm sure KEFI is going to show.

Look at any junior explorer that secures finance to build. Then, observe the growth in market cap over the next two years or so as milestones are hit and derisking is complete.

Keri have 3 projects and somewhere near 5 billion usd of just gold. JORC certified.

And the KSA projects look to be getting going next year.

Also huge. Does anyone know the value assigned to the KSA gold and copper project vs the one on the Saudi stock exchange?

Condor,

We're not comparing each company directly, nor their respective market caps.

We're using what Allied Gold paid as the market rate for its Ethiopian project per Moz of 1.53 g/t graded resource in the ground at the project stage of - pending development and funded to develop - Debt or cash. Same cost to a company, but with debt you pay the accrued interest also, as someone is willing to lend you the cash.