Member Info for WorldWidePleb

“Ghaleb Muhammad, a former member of the House of Representatives, explained the reasons behind the obstacles to restart exports from the Kurdistan region. ”

https://mycurrencyalerts.com/iraqi-news-understanding-the-reasons-behind-the-delay-in-resumption-of-kurdistan-oil-exports/

Agree Solarfire. I’d say that's why it’s worth holding out for our present contract and hence the stand off, now we’re break even we have a better negotiating position.

The Iraq contracts don't give enough margin or leeway for field development, hence the majors leaving over the years, the infrastructure falling apart and Iraqs output declining.

I still think sometime yet. Although we're covering costs now so that's a good derisk.

It seems Kurdistan has yielded to Iraq (will accept payments for government) and Kurdistan oil goes to SOMO.

Turkey has given a green light so whats the problem?

The noise from the Iraq government now is “the production sharing contracts are illegal under Iraq law/Constitution”

In reply we saw more IOCs join together and in the recent GKP and Genel presentations they make a point of reiterating they have production sharing contracts and won't pump until they are recognised.

Another stale mate.

The larger IOCs in Iraq have the profit sharing contracts which are far less equitable.

It looks to me if we get a contract like those issued in the 5th bid round we’d lose around 60% of our NPV (The Iraq government would gain that) but i’d like further clarity on the Kurdistan contracts to make sure.

“Muppets thinking a deal can be reached within 3 days? That is, misreading an old statement?”

PUTUP what are you even talking about?

I’d hazard a guess and say we won’t see anything meaningful until after the 5+ bid round terms are known in Jan.

The Iraq government now has legal control over all payments to the KRG IOCs, so have the leverage in negotiations.

OK, so looking into the 5th bid round terms and the ‘profit sharing’ agreements. The IOC takes around 2-5% of the gross revenues in remuneration after tax. Leaving the government with 95-98%.

All in, a company can expect on a sliding scale : 0.73c to $4.55 per bbl profit, against the oil revenue per bbl.

i.e.

0.73c = Oil market price of $21.5 bbl

$2.11 = Oil market price of $ 50 bbl

$4.55 = Oil market price of $100 bbl

Comparison:

The KRG contract provides an IRR of 17.7%

The 5th bid round contract an IRR of 15.1%

This doesn’t sound much, but the effect on NPV is massive.

It would drop the NPV of GKP by around 64%. Basically, GKP would be worth 1/3 of what it was under the KRG contract.

All imo and dyor.

Great, thanks for the reply theoryman. I’ll look into the potential new profit sharing ones.

"The first step is to collaborate with the region and companies to modify their existing contracts to align with Iraq's constitution. Within three days, we could have a deal."

Surely that means, as they have pressed before, TSCs?

Why would Iraq go through all this effort, and offer to back pay the IOC’s etc if they weren’t going to make money?

I just can’t find what the margin on the TSC’s is?

Total Energy is the only company I can find with a PSA but they had a strong negotiation position.

*coking

Auto correct

I also unfortunately found this yeasterday.

‘If’ it is our potential offtaker then the share price decline tallies with the sell off and starts to make sense.

They import around 70% of Zimbabwes coming coal and are significantly reducing ops.

I hope not. Lets wait and see.

You know what they say- 8th time lucky

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-28/arcelormittal-to-cut-3-500-jobs-in-south-africa-as-growth-slows

No more TransOre? Groundhog Day again.

Now no mention of the potential buyout, even in passing…

Very well-timed director sells in hindsight —I did note at the time a month or so ago something must be amiss.

Do as I do, not as I say, is the PB way.

Does anyone know what other IOCs in Iraq receive for their TSC?

What would the estimates profit be for GKP?

Error in that. I think our CEO still runs his weed company: https://www.carlesprey.com/about-carl-esprey/

It's not failed. Gives a glimmer of hope I suppose.

Contango need to do a Q&A with investors and get this sorted.

30 August 2023

As a consequence, the Company is also pleased to report that it has now made its inaugural sale to TransOre International FZE ("TransOre"), pursuant to its existing offtake arrangement. TransOre has already collected initial coking coal product from the Muchesu mine site and additional trucks will shortly be mobilised to Muchesu by TransOre

TransOre Update- 26 Oct 2023 - Takeover offer (Out with the old, in with the…)

In Q3 2023 TransOre entered into an agreement to acquire up to 20,000 tonnes ("Offtake Agreement") of washed coal per month. Following an initial sale, Contango has been waiting for TransOre to purchase additional coal under the Offtake Agreement. The Company has been advised by TransOre that it is finalising the appropriate agreements and logistics and hopes to be able to recommence the purchase of Muchesu coal in the near term.

26 Oct 2023 - No mention of TransOre,

31 October 2022: Massive placing £7.5m ( Look at production commencing in March RNS…)

Company targeting additional offtakes for coking coal, thermal coal and coke product

The Company recently announced a potential thermal coal strategy given the favourable thermal coal pricing and demand dynamics, which has seen thermal coal prices rise more than threefold to all-time highs of circa US$450 per tonne this year,.

The Company has received a number of requests for the regular delivery of thermal coal from a variety of international markets and is currently looking to finalise logistics to enable an export solution.

The Company has in recent months received a number of unsolicited approaches from buyers of thermal coal (ranging from trading houses to industrial consumers) from Africa, Europe and Asia.

The current offtake agreement for the sale of 10,000 tonnes per month of washed coal, at the prevailing MMCZ market price of US$120 per tonne, is expected to provide an estimated margin of circa US$80 per tonne. The wash plant being installed this quarter at the Lubu Project has the capacity to wash 20,000 tonnes per month of coal (double the existing contracted coal production under offtake of 10,000 tonnes per month). Therefore, in the current quarter, the Company expects to enter additional offtake arrangements for washed coking coal to utilise this spare capacity.

5 Dec 2022

Contango Holdings Plc is pleased to announce it has entered into a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") with a leading Multi-National Company

24 Feb 2023-

We expect Contango to transition into cash flow towards the end of the current quarter with first sales of coking coal

22 June 2023- Response re Speculation

Contango's subsidiary, Monaf Investments, entered into an offtake arrangement with AtoZ in June 2022 for the sale of 10,000 tonnes per month of washed coking coal at mine gate, for not lower than the MMCZ price in Zimbabwe, which has remained constant at $120 per tonne throughout this period. For the avoidance of doubt this contract remains in effect.

 

However, the offtake with AtoZ is not exclusive and Contango has the right to deliver coal to an alternate buyer should it decide to. Since entering into the agreement with AtoZ the Company has received a number of approaches from other parties interested in offtakes for not only coking coal, but also coke and subsequent by-products.

10 July 2023 - Out with the old in with the new! TransOre

The Board expects to report first sales under its offtake arrangement with TransOre in August 2023.

The TransOre Contract has been calculated with reference to the existing washing capacity at Muchesu, however, in the event Contango is able to increase washing capacity further, TransOre has indicated its willingness to expand the size of the contract.

The TransOre Contract is expected to replace the non-exclusive contract with AtoZ Investments (Pty) Ltd previously reported by

Brief overview of the progression from my notes: Note the months and years between them and the (lack of) progression.

14 August 2020: LOI - Over 3 years ago…

Contango Holdings Plc, the London listed natural resource development company, is pleased to announce that it has signed a Letter of Intent ('LOI') with South Mining (Pvt) Limited ('South Mining') relating to an offtake agreement for coal products produced at the Company's Lubu Coalfield Project in Zimbabwe ('Lubu').

24 August 2020: LOI -

CoalZim has in principle agreed to purchase an anticipated 2,000 metric tonnes of 28CV metallurgical coal per month from Monaf

1 Sep 2020 -

· Formal negotiations regarding the previously announced LOIs for 32,000 tonnes per month coal off-take agreements from Lubu are progressing well and are expected to be concluded in the current quarter

31 March 2021

Separate to the aforementioned potential sizeable offtake, the Company entered into two Letters of Intention ('LOI') during the period. Upon conversion of these LOIs for 32,000 tonnes per month of coking coal into formal offtake contracts, the Board believe that this could be translated to earnings of circa $1m per month

+ A key development in this process was announced post period end in March 2021, with the confirmation that Contango is in discussions with the Zimbabwean subsidiary of a major Chinese industrial company

14 May 2021

Contango will now focus on extracting bulk samples of the high value coking and metallurgical coals found in the 1A Lower and MSU seams. Although close to surface, this will be treated as an underground operation, like those previously mined around Hwange Colliery, enabling the Company to focus specifically on the high value product of particular interest to the Potential Offtake Partner for its newly built coke batteries, expected to be commissioned later this month.

Given the work already undertaken by Contango and the Potential Offtake Partner, the Company believes there will be a good level of confidence in the positive results of this testwork, which will enable the two parties to finalise the long-term formal offtake agreement.

24 Mar 2022

· Discussions underway with several interested parties to negotiate coking coal offtake contracts for mid-2022 and coke offtake contracts from Q4 2022.

· Enquiries from both regional and European customers about the coke product, whilst significant uplift in coke price has also led to increased viability for export to Asia.

30th Mar 2022

Production commences! Deals incoming!

14 June 2022

Coking Coal Offtake Contract

 

Following a detailed recent review of the composition and quality of the coking coal at Lubu, AtoZ has entered into an agreement to purchase 10,000 tonnes per month of washed coking coal produced at Lubu

6 Sep 2022

Test Results for Coking Coal and Coke

16 September 2022: Now everyone wants the thermal coal…

Thermal Coal Strategy

 

Strange the last RNS doesn't mention the TransOre offtake agreement even in passing.

Gone with the wind like the other agreements?

Add to that Consolidated Growth Holdings

I’m not going to do people's homework for them. But for direction:

Who’s shaking the president's hand here? It’s not Carl… a bit odd considering Contango own 70%, and apparently Carl runs the show? Who’s the Random?

https://x.com/contangoplc/status/1685957453106610176?s=46&t=x7jSf4uKpkEb1QjiK7BngA

Lookup:

Sable mining & liberation mining Ltd

Keep digging. Did the owner of Sable just give the asset to Contango? Would you?

Why was it handed to the company Contango in the first place? What happened? How much of Contango does he own now? How much of Montaf? How much of Liberation? Through how many entities?

How did he acquire such a significant asset for so little in the first place? Whose friend was he?

Who loans such a dubious company £1m, In unsecured cash!? Would you of you had that cash on hand? What would you need to know?

Something is in the works.

All IMO and Dyor