RE: Hang on a mo...17 Feb 2022 11:45
Steve I’ve had this conversation many times, and in the trade, as well as on good terms with some oil brokers who are seriously in-depth on global markets and demand.
If anything with climate change will remove well over half the planets oil infrastructure with sea level rises of only 0.5 - 1m… that alone is a very real near term threat to production levels.
It is easy also to forget our privileges as 1st world countries. We are a minority. And 3rd world demand will increase dramatically.
The transition to full green, and leaving petrochemicals for domestic products only, required for more everyday items than you could imagine, will be, very likely decades to reach all going well.
There are other factors on the board such as human depopulation due to war and disease including a very real threat of water a war which is already starting but many know nothing about, there are multiple doomsday threats far more concerning than a near term withdrawal from O&G but you just can’t include in any acceptable forecasting.
May be wrong but we could actually be looking at perhaps the last great oil boom over the next 10 years. As we start to loose key zones of production, see an ever hungry market grabbing what they can to fund a transition to greener energy.
There is a desire for greener investment and rightly so, but the honest truth imo is that it will be a good few years minimum before that sort of thing needs to be worried about.