Member Info for WolfofWarks

Of course they are.

It’s not exactly rocket science.

The problem is if we are going into recession and inflation keeps going up there’s more downside from here. It’s too early to call any kind of bottom. The market could completely crash yet.

It’s telling that BOO is still in the top three or four shorted stocks on the UK market. Completely exposed to the consumer and if there is a big recession and job losses BOOs demographic is usually disproportionately affected.

Which ones? I remember Archagos last year but that was more of a family office. There's been some margin calls perhaps, and most will be underwater this year like most other investors.

They are not selling at inflated prices though. They are selling now. It's completely the wrong psychology.

Most of the platforms encourage dollar cost averaging - shame the miners didn't adopt the same principle. The HODL has basically been paid for by SHs. So pockets have been double dipped in my book.

Hedge funds are far more targeted and ruthless.

Shorters are usually institutions and are far more sophisticated and carry out far more detailed and wide ranging research from your average long, especially if you factor in PIs.

Now it's not nice being invested in a share that is being heavily shorted but it's usually for a good reason. With a bit of basic knowledge on ratios and a bit of economics it's not that hard to pick out the grossly overvalued companies in any given economic situation. It's digging into the detail that reveals the skeletons in the closet.

I've ignored short interest and lost out on a few shares so it's something I take a closer look at now when picking new investments.

I'm definitely of the opinion now that all miners should have been selling ebc production all along. The HODL policy has been paid for by diluting shareholders and taking on high risk secured credit, which again once defaults start will be at the detriment of SH value,

Shareholders have never been at the heart of the miner business model. To me know the whole think looks like a deck of cards ready to collapse. Those that stand the test will be very well on the next bull run but they need to selling and operating like proper businesses.

In the words of Warren Buffet 'Inflation swindles almost everybody'.

Yes and Ted's got the unfortunately mix of being reliant on consumer and profits all in the future. A lethal combination under the current macro conditions.

I'm looking for a re-entry point but I think this has some way to drop yet.

The main concern being two parties sale offers have now been arranged but not managed to complete so what is under the hood that we are not seeing?

I see on the latest sale RNS it is not being linked to the DD so perhaps just not the right time or appetite for this type of acquisition.

They’ll never be able to control the stock to run click and collect efficiently. The stores are like landfill sites.

He was never going to pay for Twitter with his own cash, what investor would?

"I focus on the Marco and take a contrarian approach. The substitution of oil for clean energy is not feasible at scale in the timeframes suggested, despite its environmental impact the world still needs mined products, people will continue to smoke fags even though it kills them, insurance is unavoidable, higher interest rates will work well for banks and insurers and people will still need homes despite fluctuations in UK house prices, especially since demand is greater than supply."

Hi Baffled - That's a brilliant post. Just about sums my thoughts at the moment as well. I'm looking at this in great detail at the moment and see a great entry point to start building a position here. I think it can go lower but during these uncertain time I'm taking a £ cost averaging approach to adding/starting positions.

I've bought a house from Persimmons and they are very aggressive in their sales techniques, which would give me comfort as an investor. Plus if interest rates are set to rise, folks are still going to buy houses as you mention and Persimmons should be well placed at the cheaper, lower quality end of the market.

The UK Gov had RA in their sites long before the war so this idea that sanctions will be dropped seems a little naive to me. Plus with the accelerating of Ukraine to the EU will only escalate the war rather than bring it to its natural conclusion.

Definitely could have been a lot worse. Still a lot of the problems are operational and can be rectified in time. the next twelve months are going to be tough, although being at the lower price point BH may gain new customers spending down to hedge against customers lost.

Still not convinced to buy back in yet until there are clear signs of a bottom but remains on my watchlist and I look on with interest.

Bang on David

Honestly I don’t know how anyone could claim this is the bottom unless we are talking it terms of day trade.

There are no economic indicators signalling a dampening of inflation, if anything it’s getting worse. Fuel still going up which has an impact on everything. The recession is inevitable, it just needs confirming which will be H2 at the earliest.

This is a high risk low reward situation for SH. The company is that tightly controlled at the top by such a small number of SHs that your participation would literally make naff all difference, yet you would be putting your head on the chopping block by taking part in the governance of a company sanctioned by our government.

It may well be okay but is it worth the risk? If the company themselves are telling you to seek legal advice I would steer clear myself.

“I posted about this a few weeks back, but this summer is going to be awful. There is no support until 11k on BTC from what i can see. There are going to be a slew of bad outcomes from this - exchange issues, miners having to pull the plugs, institutional investors having to take a haircut. Not the halcyon days most had predicted this time last year.”

Even if all this come good the macro conditions are not there for crypto to thrive. I’m now deep underwater on my crypto, around 60% down but luckily don’t need to sell. I think all this has shown though that you are far better investing in the crypto itself then the companies that mine it which are starting to look unsustainable in the current economic environment.

I’ve said a few times in here that ARB should have been selling btc and operating like a proper business and sadly I look to have been bang on.

You don’t hold onto a volatile asset, especially when so many if the critical success factors are out of your hands. Commodity miners trade the fruits if the their labour and ARB should have been doing the same. Then to leverage against that volatile asset with no hedge in place looking back now was a recipe for disaster.

Data lakes come with their own problems and plenty of companies don't use them.

I work for a large trade wholesaler and even if you strip out inflation we are still carrying 25% more stock than we did pre covid.

The increased stock holdings started toward the Brexit deadline, stocks were run down during COVID for obvious reasons and since then it's been a case of buy as much as possible as little as possible when relying on China.