Member Info for Wolfman79

Https://igamingbusiness.com/strategy/ma/soo-kim-uk-gamble-what-does-ballys-want/

If they were a shareholder then this could move north quickly. Level 2 data holding this back with a big sell order of 498875 shares at 41.55 (207k)

I think Newbie, someone said keep your powder dry for the time being. Bally's and maybe others number crunchers at the top will be working hard to structure a deal. The elephant in the room is obviously the debt but what business can you buy these day (even debt ridden) that is bringing this income in. This is a monster cash cow and those guys have got to work out how to be in a position to pay it down. Look at Rolls Royce a few years back. Gambling stocks aren't liked by politicians and others but have you ever seen a poor bookie. People love to bet as it is ego of being cleverer than someone and beating the system. If i was in control of a company like Bally's, flutter, entain i would seriously thinking we can get this income on the cheap. Don't they always say buy when there is blood on the streets, Evoke certainly is this and the fact it was 70p shows how quickly this can move. £225 million plus debt is cheap as would a £1 share £450 million if you can sort and paydown the debt. To me this is like 100% mortgage which is a risk at the start. If you buy for 1 million and have a million mortgage as long as you can afford the repayments it doesn't relly matter the value. Its only if you cant afford the payments and then at that time the property is only worth 800k and gets repossesed then there is a problem. If you make all the repayments and can always afford to pay them the mortgage goes down and the risk is gone

GLA for tomorrow

Thanks Jimmy. Seems to be a daily pattern of touching 43p then dropping back to 40-41p by close, maybe mm's are helping shorts close slowly? GLA

Cant read without a subscription can you copy and paste on here Frankie?

Interested to hear people thoughts on Ballys and the final price. Maybe its me but i simply cannot see there just being one bidder in this process. Why would a Private Equity that is awash with cash not look to pursue. Lets say you put the price closer to £1 per share. Thats £450 million and the debt, if you clear say half the debt £900 million and you refinance the £900 million on favourable terms (because you can) you suddenly have a monster cash cow on your hands. The UK market will change but it will be the big boys who survive. This sort of deal would mean you can sell off the unprofitable areas (maybe retail) turn the business round and instantly have a business worth 3 billion IMHO. Playtech offered £1.56 when they had cash, and even Alexander and his cronies tried to buy into at a lot higher price. We all know the debt is the issue here but there are players out there who actively look to these deals so surely there must be another party keeping their powder dry waiting to act. For me its a no brainer for Bally's at this discount when you look what they bought Gamesys for. I have a decent holding here and to me 50p is not real value so i would also expect the Shaked family be looking at options to take it private because £45million seems a lot less than the £135million a few years back.

2 bidders at 90p?

Is something happening today? Are final bids being prepared?

My gut feel is this is a message to Selan. 7% interest rate for an unsecured loan to be seems really reasonable, and i dont think they will need to even execute it. As Kievsky said this is backing from the largest shareholder and this likely shows intent to get the whole of Cambay back and push the Indian Regulator over the non completion of the agreed WP. Dont get me wrong and i still hold RW accountable but how messed up is it that if the WP had been completed properly both Selan and SYN would be reaping the benefit of huge oil and gas prices. If i can see this as a shareholder how can the Indian Government not see the f**k up Selan have done through pure greed to get the whole of Cambay rather than complete a WP they benefits the Indian people and economy!

My guess is a big buyer at 34p or a short closing as you can get rid of a lot

I think there is more going on than we know. The Iran war could have heightened the Indian government to look at current licences and the RNS from 9 Feb. The RNS likely brought unnecessary attention to Selan specifically naming Oak Tree Capital for the breakdown of the sale and purchase agreement. Now to me if i was in office this would get me looking at the work programme previously agreed which again Selan have not completed as agreed. The CEO of Selan must be feeling the pressure as private equity will not have liked being called out and also with the latest update everybody must see this work programme should be far more advanced than it is with all parties benefiting. People forget that the Indian Government will want the royalties from this WP as it will be a significant number. Maybe SYN have been in touch with the O&G minister and maybe working on something in the background to force Selan's hand. As a shareholder we really need financials because if this latest news means no further funding then surely we just sit tight and take the revenue from the WP. With SYN however history tells me nothing is plain sailing and the next issue is only around the corner!

Genuinely think its undervalued and should be 7-8 x current price so 0.10

Sajad, i agree with your numbers which obviously make good reading however there will also around 30% off that for royalties. Look i think if we get 3-6 months of these figures which then takes away the perceived need for finance then i think we will see a rerate of this SP. Based on these numbers my MCAP would be £20 million plus for us, not the £2 million we currently have. Thus said with the history of this share can i see this being valued back at this number, i am not sure as i think there is little trust left in the company. I feel the only way to get back some of this trust is constant updates on flow rates and financials and to prove we are a non borrowing company becoming cash rich and paying a dividend. Working in £'s i work out our share at £137500 per month income. If our costs are £75000 per month and we are making £62500 with the thought of it increasing. If some distribution of these profits starts happening then the SP will have to move significantly North. If £500000 was paid out year 1 with the current valuation of £2 million then this would be 25% of the company value being distributed. This is why i dont think a £20 million valuation is that far out as this would be a dividend of 2.5%. Other peoples thoughts are welcome on my numbers

I was just writing the same! Someone is confident! Good day today long may it continue

This has surely been put to the market to give Selan a kick up the backside. If your numbers are right Gordon this keeps the light on but for how much longer. Does anyone know when the next financials are due? These figures likely put us in the shop window for another Indian company to potentially buy us out of our share at maybe a bigger price. SYN / Selan's relationship is done so no real going back with the dirty tricks they have played. Not RW's biggest fan but he has thick skin in the game and although decimating the SP he has stopped us losing everything. If he turns this around and we continue in India I will be shocked as it will take legal action to say Selan are in breach of the WP and this could take years. Hopefully a few more buys today as we know it doesnt take much to move the dial. My guess is as usual this is the good RNS and next we get the bad one. GLA

Look i am not RW biggest fan, however i am sure he has been working on some kind of backup plan. I know us LTH PI's have been royally screwed however think of Republic. They must know what has been going on and must have some trust in RW as they haven't pulled the plug on SYN yet. Republic are a serious player so this is the only thing that gives me some comfort. If i see these selling out then i know its going down. Selan have been at it from Day 1 and this maybe the catalyst for SYN to play selan at there own game. They have lost 500k and their exclusivity, what if there are others interested and a new bigger player buys the 50%. Unfortunately we cant afford a legal battle but we still own 50% of an asset which everybody on here believes is worth more than $14 million. What if another company with more money now offers the same or more and have the funds to hold Selan to account with the GOI. The $14 million might be a cheap entry and because of Selan's not completing the WP they may be thinking thay can hold Selan and get 100% of the asset on the cheap. Remember there are always predators circling

Gordon, this share has driven me crazy over the years, and i read re read all the RNS's again and again - 1st December 2025 the risk part for me is as follows:

"The transaction is subject to approval from the Government of India and subject to Selan establishing a bank guarantee for the deferred payment in a format suitable for the Company."

GOI, Tax rate, Shareholder approval may have taken place however until the RNS lands saying initial payment made and Bank Guarantee in place, i am wondering why it has taken so long.

I know this is India, however we have been here before with delays, what if Selan dont sort this out? Thats why the period i asked about exclusivity as they have hung us out to dry once before on the work programme, what is to say they wont do it again. As a LTH like most i start to worry with no news and on Sunday we have been 2 months. I may be way off the mark and i hope i am but this is the risk with AIM

Whilst i don't disagree with this tbcx, what if Selan dont execute the deal? Has their exclusivity run out yet - i think it must be soon, Gordon might know? We could be back to square 1 (we have been here before remember) with Selan. They know we are not cash rich and they could try anything on. I get worried every morning we dont get that RNS saying its signed and money on the way!

I simply cannot understand the decline of this SP from 70p to 20p back up to 30 now sitting at 25p. EBITDA of 355 million to me is the business heading in the right way. You cannot not address the elephant in the room of the 1.8 billion debt but looking at the numbers but 8% of this is 144 million lets say they managed to pay some down with the cost cutting that has been going on. Lets say 50 -100 million this would be the clearest shift and positive sign that the business is serious to address the issue. Dont get me wrong this share is a risk but i just dont foresee the collapse like lots are predicting. It is servicing the debt as a minimum. The strategic review is positive and i believe one of the american giants will try to swallow this up. It wasnt that long ago playtech offered £1.56 now i dont think we will reach anywhere near that but at current MCAP of 115 million this is cheap. I can see someone paying 500 million for the lot and taking on the debt. This will be a cheap entry to all the markets and brands in the regulatory areas and if the new company is not under such financial pressure it can then sell off the bits it doesnt want not under distress. Remember CEO's of Gambling companies love a d1c measuring contest to make there company the biggest in the world and under the EVOKE brand there is some top brands. My guess is the whole lot gets sold for 500 million to create a monster of a company. GLA