Member Info for wolfi_at

IMO opinion buying pressure will increase each day close to the Chinese approval of the deal !!

Once the deal is inked valuation will correct very quick as the probability to become cash flow positive will be much higher now. Most investors will recognize very soon that in fact it simply doesn´t matter which price GANFENG have payed for the 29.9% stake!! Of course 25p / share is painful for existing shareholders but BCN will benefit from their knowledge, expertise, buying conditions and financial strength much more.

I also believe that Ganfeng tries to diversify their Li production to Hardrock, Brine (dependent on weather conditions and very long evaporation time) and now softrock to ensure the agrred Li quantity to their customers...
China will strongly support the investment as they want to establish oneself in all parts of the world ... especially in Europe in near the usa ... Trump won´t be president forever ...

some thoughts ...

Sonora earnings p.a (DFS): 229M US$ p.a.
Zinnwald earnings p.a. (FS): 58M EUR = 65M us$ * 50% = 32M us$ p.a.
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earnings p.a.: 261M us$ p.a.
MC: 46,99M us$ * 1,3 (+ Ganfeng) = 61M us$ = 23,3% of annual revenue !!
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if you calculate SP with a very conservative P/E of 5 we should get a MC of 1300M US$ / 174,2M Shares (incl .Ganfeng) = 7,46us$ = 587 GBp = + 2.130% gain !!!
even if this very simple calculation is 50% wrong we have a 10 bagger stock

Of course there are a many barriers to break down ...but we are still at the beginning ... but just compare SP with SP some years ago - at this time w/o cornerstone investor, w/o FS for Zinnwald .... the project is still the same but in an very advanced stage, the resource is even larger ...

Buy, sit down, drink a lot of tea and have patience ....

RNS data .. not really stunning but solid ... especially in context with current MC of BCN - yesterday appr. 46M US$

VW electric car ID.3: over 20,000 pre-orders !
Source: http://mechcrunch.com/2019/06/04/vw-electric-car-id-3-over-20000-pre-orders/

IMO Ganfeng will buy the remaining 50% of Zinnwald project - their investment in BCN is the "door opener" for this project ... they will get 65% (50% + 30%*50%) of Zinnwald for for 30M EUR - a project with completed FS and all permissions and their first Li project in Europe...

new coverage about Deutsche Lithium and Lithium Exploration in Zinnwald in prestigious newspaper "Frankfurter Allgemeine" ... in German, requires subscription - for 30 days free - terminable at call

Source: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/auto-verkehr/aus-dem-erzgebirge-soll-lithium-fuer-batterien-abgebaut-werden-16219562.html

don´t forget Zinnwald ....

approximately 1.7% of BCN -> 2.1M Shares ....
source: https://www.investegate.co.uk/cadence-minerals-plc--kdnc-/rns/results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2018/201905301030026059A/
It would be very stupid to sell these remaining shares now ....

i´m with you ... risk should be limited to 25p !!
It´s a nice multiply R - Trade ...

source: https://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2019-05/46791163-late-briefing-unternehmen-und-maerkte-2-015.htm
translated by Google ...

Bacanora wants to win German car industry for lithium project

In order to raise the necessary funds for the planned lithium mining in the Erzgebirge, the leading Canadian company Bacanora Lithium has also turned to the potential customers from the automotive industry. CEO Peter Secker said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires that Bacanora will probably divest more than half of the shares following a spin-off of the Saxon project company Deutsche Lithium.

I recommend these peoples to do some research about Ganfeng Lithium ... http://www.ganfenglithium.com/about_en.html
what they are paying for their 30% stake is one point but what they contribute in terms of connections, experience and knowledge is worth much more and will soon unlock the real value !

-> further optimization & commercialization of their chemical process
-> much better puchasing conditions
-> project experience which will hopefully avoid cost explosion and project delays (eg. NMX)
-> financial power, may even help with an additional loan if required ...

->

some more thought ...
Ganfeng wants to become world largest Li producer has a deal with vw ...
their investment in BCN (30%) opens them via Zinnwald the door to European Li resources too ... it´s a win-win situation ! BCN only owns 50% and has to pay 30M EUR for the remaining 50% till Q3 otherwise they may loose the project. IMO Ganfeng will take the other 50% and then owns 65% of this project (30% * 50% + 50%) ...
-> BCN will keep the project and it´s value
-> Ganfeng gets 65% for 30M EUR (keep in mind that FS will be finished then !!)
-> Ganfeng gets access to one of Europe larges Li resources in Germany, near VW

Also pls. keep in mind that with Ganfengs technical expertise and experience the Sonora project is de-risked not only in financial terms but also in technical implementation which will avoid a.) delays and b.) increased costs during construction phase. there are many examples ... Nearly all new projects had theses kind of problems e.g. NMX or ORE during ramp up ...

@Zarro ... Feb 19th + 3 Month (1Q) -> May 23rd

Maybe more information tomorrow ? - is the mentioned date still valid ?
-> Earnings Announcement for Period Ending Q2/2019:05/23/2019
source: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCN:LN

my own summary:
- probabilty that Sonora goes into production (3M earlier than planned) is very high now, getting attractive for investment funds again
- BCN will benefit much from Ganfengs knowledge and expertise as well as from much better sourcing connections which will reduce Sonora project costs
- financing is secured
- the float keeps the same after Ganfengs investment - price will move even faster
- now focus on Zinnwald FS and following spinoff / IPO
- IMO it´s only a matter of time till mc corrects to "appropriate and fair value"

Btw... Today was a strong day for AUS Li-Stocks (+5% on average) ... I expect gains in BCN too .. but nothing is for sure in stock market ...

FCC.V

some calculations about financing ...
GF: 30% * 420M us$ = 126M US$ project financing
GF: £14,400,091 for new shares = 18.35M US$ for BCN stake
RK:150M
HANWA: 25M US$
Cash: 20M US$
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TOTAL: 339,35M US$
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SGRF: 65M ??
Zinnwald: ?
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btw... there´s a new company presentation too incl. the Ganfeng Deal
Source: http://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/BCN-Presentation-May-2019-.pdf

What about Hanwa ? they have already an offtake agreemet ... they now have to act fast ...

another good article ...

"Merger and acquisition activity in the lithium supply chain has caught the attention of investors who have caused share prices to jump for new and upcoming projects, while traditional producers have struggled with low product sales prices and an oversupplied market"

source: https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3874178/Lithium-equity-price-trends-Not-all-equities-are-in-the-same-boat.html

... forget all these automated trading signal alerts BS when trading an exploration company ...

here is the "free" (german) version of the article ...
https://www.wirtschaft-in-sachsen.de/news/kretschmer-bei-den-erzsuchern-gid-3731?_region=landkreis-saechsische-schweiz-osterzgebirge