The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
If the pay zone is as large as has been reported, and this well is on a regional high, then to me it makes perfect sense to take baby steps at the moment.
Echo need to know how much hydrocarbons will flow from 30m, then they can plan to perforate more Tobifera to increase the output of the well. If it flows well, they will need a short pipeline, separator, pumps, storage tank(s), chemical injection facilities, metering etc in order to monetise.
Then they will be able to estimate volumes in place, they have the seismic for the extended area.
This well may have been about the Springhill, now it is not.
We know that a 4m pay zone, 18 km away flows 300 bbls/d.
I think that it is better to get a feel for what is there and the flow rate.
Only then can the well and a field development go forward.
But that's jumping the gun.
30m of Tobifera is a sensible 1st step.
I am doing a top up today
WT
abzzba
I have taken the view that the SP only becomes important to me, if I wish to sell my shares.
Other than that, the SP can be whatever the market manipulators wish it to be.
I have seen an SP fall by over 50%, and recover.
I didn't lose a penny and made quite a few buying around it's lowest point and on the way back up.
In the short term, the Echo SP will only be of interest to me post the publication of the RNS EMS-1001.
To my mind, day to day SP fluctuations are only important if you wish to trade or even sell up.
I do not wish to do either!
And as far as estimates as to when say testing might occur, then it is normal to get slippage.
Maybe equipment/people are not available.
Maybe their last job overran and knocks on to the next project
Lab results were delayed or needed to be retested.
Experts could not be assembled when they said that they would be.
A thousand and one reasons for delays to happen.
Would you want Echo to give no estimates?
The one overriding thought that I have is that given the importance of this well test, do you honestly think that Echo would have wasted a single nanosecond getting to this point? It is important to them as professionals, it is important for the company that they run and they know that it is important to us and MUCH bigger investors to whom they have to answer to on a regular basis.
Several times I was delayed offshore by 4 days by a massive fog banks, you just cannot legislate for weather delays.
I like many have sat in airports various waiting for a 25P faulty component to be changed out, and observed normal people totally lose it over a few hours. But in my spotty youth, I was like the rest, wanting action and NOW!!!
Truly, "it" never came any quicker.
No one intentionally delays, they (Echo) want what we want.
And given where we were at the beginning of the year, it is my honest opinion that they have done remarkably well in their achievements to date. I did read somewhere that there were 7 staff employed by Echo!!
Ok, a small red herring. lol!!
Maybe you don't agree and I respect that you may choose to differ.
There will be many things that Echo are constrained from telling us, that is the Oil Business and like it or not. I accept it.
WT
250SWB
I entirely agree.
All we can do is wait.
I trust Echo implicitly, all the signs are that there may well be something really good there.
Remember Julian's almost child like enthusiasm.
Several heavy hitters recruited.
No investor "Team Talks."
The virtual news blackout, except for what they had to say.
Just be patient.
Echo have been very conservative only perforating a total of 30m of Tobifera, ignoring the Springhill.
This is a one step at a time process.
They identified the drilling location, they have had experts interpret the log signatures, Schlumberger have been involved, they have done a successful inflow test.
I say that we let them get on with it.
WT
I see that Echo suffered several sharp falls in the SP this morning.
I have never used a stop loss device, as I think that it can be abused by those who might want my shares on the cheap.
Besides that, in this crucial run up to the testing of EMS-1001, why would I want to sell my shares when there may be a considerable upside within a month or so??
I suppose that these pre-determined mechanisms may have a use in extreme circumstances such as a market crash, I do not use them rather keeping control of assets that I own. But each to his/her own!!
I will concede that I can be a cynical soul, seeing potential problems in a worst case scenario environment.
Echo may be on the cusp of a discovery of epic proportions, there again they may not.
My read of the current situation at Echo is that even if EMS/ELM yeild derisory volumes of hydrocarbons, in spite of indications, we have production yeilding income, we are well funded, and Tapi Aike is less than a year away. There is nothing not to like, and I think that others see this as an oportunity to deprive shareholders of their property by means of legalised theft! Do not play into their hands, I most certainly will not.
WT
abzzba
I think that it would be tempting fate to embark in that direction.
But if you think that it is such a good wheeze, then be my guest! LoL!!
WT
abazza
I would expect echo to be very conservative with what they release in the EMS-1001 RNS.
As Edison said in their August Argentina Update, eyes very much are on this test as it might have ramifications for the area/block or even Basin.
WT
abazza
In my opinion johnybbad estimate was the best one,
He took 28142 to infinity, which was smart!! lol!!
And that is the one that we all WANT to WIN!, presumably.
WT
OK, last two as I'm not typing that lot out again
tomtea 1725 b/d
Cervelo 2200 b/d
That's it. list absolutely closed.
Don't even ask!
WT
Here is the final list, and it is now closed.
Trellis35 666 b/d
stix40 850 b/d
reditin 1000 b/d
IAmNotAnAnalyst 1100 b/d
bobbyrash 1206 b/d
eggonaroll 1234 b/d
Jobbinscl 1400 b/d
stevegodfrey 1485 b/d
mushroomkid 1600 b/d
MrMarkyB 2000 b/d
Abazza 2300 b/d
WizardTaffy 2700b/d
johnybbad 2985 b/d
Roll on the EMS-1001 RNS.
If the number is big or even BIG, then no matter what our guess; then we will all be winners with a BIG shift in the SP!!
WT
Oops!
Should say "And then the ELM well?"
WT
MrMarkyB
Also my thoughts.
But I will take Echo at their word.
A poster on this B/B remarked that there was basically nothing that we didn't already know.
So the benefit of the doubt!
And maybe an RNS or two in the offing.
The start of the Tapi Aike 3D survey operations?
The start of the EMS-1001 stimulation?
And then the EMS well?
Perhaps, a good month ahead?
WT
Just got an email from Echo HQ concerning the Edinburgh video.
The technical quality of the material shot that night was not deemed good enough to be released.
So that's the end of that!!
WT
Just a word to say thanks to all Echo investors that have had a crack at this estimate.
And it may be "a while" before the RNS is published.
And to be clear, as if you needed telling that there is no prize for getting closest, except of course bragging rights.
I am slightly astonished that the estimates have been at the lower end, I might have expected a few wags having a go in the 3-4000 bbls/day region!??!
Obviously you don't think that "transformational" reaches those dizzy heights!! LOL!
And that EMS-1001 does not have a BIG oilfield around it and is not going to make you a shedful.
Maybe the plan is to bring the well onto production in stages, not being certain what each potential interval that can produce, will produce?
We shall see, it will be fun waiting and better still seeing what it delivers.
WT
Reading through the RNS's for the umpteenth time, 2 intervals of Tobifera have been perforated.
The Springhill whilst indicating a 20 m section of interest is under evaluation but there has been no mention of perfs!
It was these 2 zones in the Tobifera that were inflow tested successfully.
Videos available on YouTube, if you require further explanation.
WT
abzzba
I seem to remember seeing on this B/B.
I totally agree that Echo has been less than fulsome with information regarding EMS-1001, what has been perforated etc. This may be to limit speculation, or conclusions being drawn. Maybe there is a close hold regarding the well. For example, I have not seen a geological map around EMS-1001, so that one might be able to see the 4-way dip structure that they drilled and the size of it. Using that info it is possible to guesstimate volumes etc
In truth I was hoping that the Edinburgh video might have been posted last week giving some additional info by means of a Q&A..
One attendee did give a bit of info on here but I do not have the time to rake through a weeks worth of posts.
If it is helpful then I think that the posters name began with CE,,,,,,O, and ended with "O".
I have posted that I have contacted Echo HQ twice regarding the video and also Share Magazine who as of now have not deigned to reply. I note that 3 of the 5 presenters at Edinburgh have their video up.
That's it.
WT
The well flowrate as reported by Echo post the stimulation on the RNS for ELM-1001.
I have not seen a report of what has been perforated, so cannot assume anything.
However, it is your guess, so assume away.
The one thing we do know is that they will be stimulating 30m of Tobifera.
I will refrain from updating the list until tomorrow.
WT
And:
trellis35 666 b/d
stix40 850 b/d
reditin 1000 b/d
eggonaroll 1234 b/d
MrMarkyB 2000 b/d
abazza 2300 b/d
WizardTaffy 2700 b/d
And another?
WT
Oopps!
So far:
trellis35 666 b/d
stix40 850 b/d
eggonaroll 1234 b/d
MrMarkyB 2000 b/d
abazza 2300 b/d
WizardTaffy 2700 b/d
And still not too late.
WT
So far:
stix40 850 b/d
eggonaroll 1234 b/d
MrMarkyB 2000 b/d
abazza 2300 b/d
WizardTaffy 2700 b/d
Thanks to those who submitted an estimate.
And not too late to have a go!
WT
eggonaroll
Again not wishing to be unkind, why oh why would you want to put another well close to EMS-1001??
I would urge you to buy a few books from Amazon/and/or look up simple oilfield extraction or the story of oil to give you an insight into how you best extract oil from a reservoir?
If you have the shares that you claim, then you have little understanding of the business that you have bought into and that makes no sense to me.
Buy the books, read up and come back in a month wiser and then you will realise why posters have lost patience with you.
And I say these words with your interests at heart!!
You cannot say that you have not been told.
WT