The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Just tried to buy around 28,000 shares in Echo,
Bounced back asking me to try again.
What's happening?
WT
250SWB
The RNS was issued just after 14.00 hrs, UK time.
I postulated that given the time difference +3 hours that unlikely to be co-incidental.
WT
v2cola
I stand by US$5M, but no doubt others will confirm the correct figure.
Have a good weekend.
WT
BHX1
I think that you are correct. As I recall, we have enough cash to fund one TA well, but we have 4 scheduled. (3 deeper and one shallow exploration oil well)
I do not see any big capital expenditure on the EMS well. Sclumberger who I think are in attendance will cost a bit, all the research and planning took place in the Summer and Autumn and the cost of the test would be in the budget. The cost of getting it on production will be low (if successful) as any production will be trucked to facilities, if I remember correctly.
And "my assumptions" are there to stimulate debate and a wider appreciation of what might be the credible options.
WT
stix40
Sky box recording as I type!! lol!
I am certain others will appreciate the heads up.
For those who missed the start there is Discovery +1.
WT
bobbyrash
Individual assets may be sold.
The team that has been assembled has a strength and expertise in the area of M & A.
We should not overlook that.
As far as Frac C is concerned, with a success on EMS, I think that another 2 or 3 wells would be appropriate to prove up a concept, if it indeed exists.
As far as selling Echo, I think of a 3 - 5 year timeframe.
No doubt others would disagree, but it will all depend on drill bit success in exploration and proving up the asset for a prospective suitor. And CPR's!!
WT
v2cola
I think that TA wells cost around US$5M each.
WT
Just a thought for weekend discussion.
We require cash for Tapi Aike Drills.
Our current income will not cover that.
It could be covered by disposing of our Bolivian assets, or maybe some cash and a reduced interest.
But if EMS-1001 delivers at around 3000 bbls/day, that may give Echo $25M net p.a.
Less, pro rata.
But if EMS comes in, then we might have the conundrum of more wells on the block, cost yes but with the opportunity of much more income.
So might I speculate that a good EMS result will take Echo into quite another realm!!
We may be able to accelerate drilling activity wherever we please.
I may seem bullish, but it is Saturday and we are still probably weeks away from an EMS RNS.
What do you think?
There are no wrong answers, all opinions welcome.
WT
250SWB
Well done. Same page!!!
The reason I asked for the surface area of the EMS-1001 well at the recent "Time with the Team" session was to gain some clues as to quite why Julian was so excited. He said 8 Square Kilometres.
When I made my own estimates as to what volume of oil might be in place, it was very good indeed BUT not sufficient to explain his huge enthusiasm.
And then the penny dropped that the EMS might be an indicative structure and that they may be many more that have similar characteristics.
There has been mention of 3D done in the region, I am not sure if this is an aspiration or has been completed. If it has been done, Echo will probably have made estimates of how many similar structures exist updip.
The good news might be that we have found one and we will see what it produces.
The bad news is that we will have to drill a couple more to confirm that they also hold hydrocarbons.
So from my point of view, and I may well be barking up the wrong tree BUT I would hope that the EMS RNS will have the normal flowrate information etc but also some comment about other structures.
So I agree with your post.
And as ever we must wait for the RNS.
But unlike most, I will be looking as much for "other structures info" as for EMS-1001 well information.
WT
somm
Take a look at Bigideas post of last Tuesday and come to your own conclusion.
You might wish to email Martin Hull.
You might want to telephone the Echo office and speak directly to him.
I have reported Bigideas post which is available for all to see.
And as far as the questions that you pose for me, I cannot comment!!
WT
Bigideas posted last Tuesday
"I spoke to MH last week who said that fracking will probably take 4 weeks. He also indicated that quick news will probably be bad news. So lets hope for news in 6 weeks!"
I presume that MH is Martin Hull, our MD and CFO.
So if he cannot make an informed estimate, then no one can.
So 4 weeks on, would take us to around 7th February (ish).
But for those of you who have worked on Oilfield Operations, nothing goes smoothly and it takes as long as it takes.
And would you really want the work crew to cut corners and someone gets hurt in an accident (or worse), then the operation is shut down for an investigation or an error is made and they have to redo an operation??
Well operations is an inherantly dangerous business, I have seen people badly hurt.
And all the estimates made on this thread will not bring news closer by a nanosecond.
If the Operational Plan is followed, no accidents occur, all equipment works properly and there are no breakdowns or failures, then we will hear soon enough.
Patience is required but sometimes it is in short supply, especially by those who have never been close to a drill bit or walked across a drilling floor.
WT
MrMarkyB
Thanks for the Cove info.
Given what we have in our Exploration pipeline, I would personally be very unhappy at a takeover of Echo at this time.
Lets see what EMS/ELM bring us?
Then Tapi Aike?
And for the cherry on the cake, if Shell are successful in Bolivia, our asset may well be very desirable to Shell and/or Repsol?
All to play for, we've hardly started.
Lot's of excitement to come (and to be realistic, disappointments too), E&P is a rollercoaster!!
WT
nyforever
From what Bigideas reported in his recent post, the RNS on EMS-1001 during the latter half of February might be better received.
I just hope that it is in line or even more productive than we have had indicated to us by Echo.
I have seen many drills fail on various E&P share pages. The disappointment palpable, the financial hit to investors depressing and to bastardise Jean-Luc; "hoping does not make it so."
But it would be good, to be a part of a great success story that was not predictable.
Time will tell, if in a month or so and we have no news, we may well have cause for cautious optimism.
So I for one, have no wish for at least the next 3/4 weeks to see an RNS titled EMS-1001 in my Inbox.
WT
MrMarkyB
Thank you for the clarification.
So in everyday, understandable language - Sell off!!
I personally despair as to why terms like "bin men" are today metamorphosed into "disposal operatives!?!"
Maybe, it's just me and my inadequate education!! lol
WT
nyforever
What have I missed?
What the heck does "LE" mean?
Thank you in anticipation.
WT
MrMarkyB
Well, that mega presentation has messed up my day.
But in a good way.
Learnt a lot, Julian Bessa's explanation of the local stratigraphy was invaluable in understanding the region, the risks and some of the history. He would have no problem doing a bit of lecturing in his dotage.
I do think that Echo might use him again as he is very easy to understand and his enthusiasm is infectious!!
I have watched other Echo presentations but for my money, Exeter was terrific and I would recommend it.
Thanks for pointing us towards it!!
WT
I think that the recent upswing in the SP is terrific.
I would caution our enthusiasm, as it would not surprise me if the MM's crashed us down once again.
That is the way that these scallywags make their money.
They are not interested in news on EMS.
They probably could not find Bolivia on a map of South America,
They are not interested in the fundamental value that a particular share represents, only how much they can extract from SP swings irrespective of how misleading it can be. But it should not be me to criticise, we all have different approaches as to how we make money, so each to his own.
And as far as the eagerly awaited EMS RNS, it would neither surprise me if it appeared within 3 or 6 weeks, it will take as long as it takes. This test is hugely important to Echo, CGC and the Argentinean Authorities. Whatever it says, the language employed will be crucial, like reading a coded message.
So no premature visits to your local Merc or BMW dealers showrooms, but you could log onto their websites and in a flight of fancy, design your ideal vehicle whilst waiting.
This is like when I was a 10 year old, a fortnight before Christmas wondering whether Santa would deliver the bike that I so coveted or would I have to wait another year!! LOL!
I really enjoy this share buying lark!
Have a good day.
WT
bitas004
My recollection is that flow rates from the "worked over wells" had not stabilised. (oiled in)
So an update on that is due.
Also no decision had been taken as to a prospective Phase 2 in well workovers.
I imagine that if and when a Phase 2 workover plan is announced, then up to date flowrate data may be released.
It is worth noting that each additional bbl/day of crude produced is worth an approximate gross income of $11000 p.a.to Echo.
WT
250SWB
I just had a thought.
(And I would happily concede any errors in my calculation or reasoning)
IF a Bolivian well would cost US$150,000,000 to drill.
And ECHO have 477,000,000 shares in circulation.
Then by my maths, shareholders would have to put approximately £0.25 per share at risk to fund just one well.
So if you own 10,000 shares, £2,500!
100,000, £25,000!!
1,000,000, £250,000!!!
I'm an E&P man, and I say not a chance.
Any takers??
I would be happy to sell the asset on, even a free carry with a retained percentage risks losing X3 our current SP.
But just fanciful speculation on a Sunday afternoon.
So back to the Chargers @ the Patriots, a gently roasted Welsh Lamb Shank and a bottle of 2010 Perrin Ermitage!
WT
We are excited about the news from Bolivia - with good reason!!
I wonder tomorrow, what the market will make of it?
And might our SP get a nudge up?
WT