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...before news.
According to H-L this morning.
Only 161,000 shares traded, less than 10 trades.
Might it be true that there was no demand for Echo shares?
If there was the buying price might increase I order to attract sellers?
With this level of non-activity, and no leaks; unlikely an RNS today.
But one never knows!!
So next week or the week after?
So my attention turns to Paris and the hope for a good start to the 6N campaign, after a good Autumn.
Dublin, my rear end firmly affixed to the larchlap, I do think that it may be a "violent" affair.
And the Azzuri in "Auld Reekie", I think that has the potential to be a fun game!
Given "Spygate" & "Deflategate," I truly hope Tom Brady is presented with his rear end, rationally I expect the Patriots to prevail. I have a good bottle of 2010 Gigondas for Sunday night, it may have to be throated rapidly!!
Have a great weekend,
WT
I have seen on a number of share chat pages, investors who post that "DYOR" but then continually push the share to the point that it almost cannot fail with a specific drill result.
When failure occurs, they disappear into the far blue yonder, sometimes to pastures new, other times for a long holiday.
If Echo really was a 50 bagger, why isn't the SP higher due to the fact that it virtually cannot fail.
I have posted here for a while and tried to throw the odd bucket of icy cold water onto the improbable expectations being posted.
Yes, EMS might be huge success but don't you think if it was nailed on then every professional geologist across the globe would have piled in by now. Today we turned over 1.5M shares, very recently far lower than that. Is it not possible that the entire staff at Gaffney Cline would have topped up their pension pots with Echo if we were that much of a sure thing??
Echo is a good share, it has potential but that's all.
You risk your money if EMS is not quite what we hope.
The same in Bolivia if Shell are unsuccessful.
And Tapi Aike, why did CGC offload risk to Echo??
CGC we are continually told are experts in this area.
Were they totally incompetent in selling off 50% for a few bob??
Feet on the ground, heads out of the clouds.
We really could go south, and I have a shedful of Echo.
We are not nailed on!!
When I see a 3 page screed like below, I shake my head.
It might come true in a perfect world, but this is E&P and we are playing hydrocarbon roulette.
All my own opinion and not posted with the intention of upsetting anybody.
Recently, I observed 2 Chariot wells fail and many people lost a lot of cash.
I could attribute part of that to one spectacularly confident poster.
If Echo is a 50 bagger, then I will make a very, VERY large amount of money.
I just do not believe it, maybe nor should you.
Good to imagine, just like Euromillion's tomorrow night.
Those 3 pages below were a bridge too far and I applaud Rushfan2112 for their post.
It needed saying!!
WT
No point in predicting the EMS-1001 RNS tomorrow at 07.00 or 14.00.
We had a flurry of atypical share movement and SP price but it foretold absolutely nothing.
My opinion is that when Echo/CGC have finished the fracking operation, done flow tests etc and colated the results, they will then sit down and discus what they wish to tell us.
No one knows when they will finish, probably least of all Echo/CGC.
They will release the relevent RNS when they have all of the facts.
Not a nanosecond sooner.
They are running an incredibly well thought out operational schedule, it may be going to plan, there again it may not.
And no one is going to tell us, until it is all over. MH was good enough to give us some wonderfully vague guidance, I do not think that we could have expected more.
And for those who have a feeling in their water, spied an indicative star or comet in the heavens, consulted a pack of Tarot cards or even claim that Mystic Meg is their long lost relative; then might I speculate that my GF's guess is as likely to be on the money as yours.
BTW, she knows SFA about geology, hydrocarbons or even what a drill bit actually looks like!!
The best thing that I can say is that as yet, we have had no bad news.
Will it be good?
I have no clue, I certainly hope so.
And that is all that I have got, just hope.
I am fairly certain that the well will flow, post stimulation.
The $64K question is, will it be at the upper end of Echo/CGC expectations?
Or the lower end!!
Our problem is, no one has told us those numbers.
But there again, being realistic, one would hardly expect them to divulge those estimates.
So, to take my mind off what is or not happening around a drill pad located in the Austral Basin in Argentina, we have the excitement of the start of the Six Nations, Tomorrow night, my lot in Paris. Saturday, England in Dublin / Italy in Edinburgh and the Superbowl in Atlanta on Sunday. Thank the Lord for Jonny Bairstow!!
WT
Seemed a little odd that todays SP blip, took place around 1400 hrs.
Maybe, someone got a sniff of something or a bit of Aim manipulation or even a tree shake.
Who knows?
This is the sort of SP behaviour that might become the norm as we approach the window for the EMS-1001 RNS.
If the SP jumps by 5-10% per day, then none of us will be complaining.
I imagine though that if any traders have shorted Echo, what happened today may have been responsible for a twitching of a few sphincters!! lol!!
WT
mushroomkid
For a bit of relevant background reading, you might do well to look at the volcanics that Hurricane Energy are targeting offshore West of Shetland. For example there, they have drilled long horizontal wells.
WT
v2cola
The RNS for EMS-1001, the test results will appear out of the blue.
No pre-determined day., only when the testing is complete.
It should be within the next 14 days, maybe at 14.00 hrs to coincide with the opening of the Buenos Aries Stock exchange.
That said it might be tomorrow morning or in 3 weeks. No way to know, the tests may go exceptionally well or there may be delays.
No point in fretting, it will arrive as soon as!!
WT
abzzba
I totally agree.
No point in a new CPR if all the well rates and data are available.
GC are not going to give us a substantial rerate without this information.
If EMS/ELM give us good news or better, then the market may well partially factor into our SP what a CPR will later confirm.
Everything moves in geologic timeframes!! lol
As far as Ms MacAulay's thoughts on a new CPR, they were probably made when we all thought that the well testing would have been completed by late summer. That slippage in that testing has had an obvious knock on effect on timing of the CPR.
WT
bobbyrash
I have no problem which one of the alternatives it turns out to be, probably like 256 shades of grey, somewhere in-between!
So long as it is not a lesser scenario of a very low flowrate, which may be improbable but vaguely possible.
Ideally, something that comes on stream quickly and in volume so that it could finance other parts of the business.
Of course reserves are incredibly important, but that will take more appraisal wells and a CPR.
That will take money to drill and time, and that is the conundrum.
Like most E&P,it is a rationale of what is possible and the cash to make it happen.
Primarily, that is why I started this discussion, as I have seen some investors want to get out within a short time and those who maybe more prepared to wait.
My view is that with success, the SP should rise inline with reserves and those who wish to bale out t an early stage will have that opportunity, leaving others who are prepared to fully exploit what is on the books today.
That said, if M&A occurs then a new timeframe may occur!!
Have a good weekend.
WT
Jaggers
Thanks for getting the ball rolling on this one.
I totally agree, ELM has potential for income, as well as second round of well interventions in Fraccion D.
And a sale of Bolivian assets in due course should produce Tapi Aike drilling capital.
Lots of irons in the fire.
If EMS flows at 600 bbls/d, that would be 300 to Echo and very approximately $5M p.a, income.
A very healthy additional wedge, but not enough to truly kick start our fortunes?
Or have I missed something?
WT
Jay_85
I think that it is very easy to be an overoptimistic cheerleader for Echo and their various prospects.
But reality has shown me that it is virtually impossible for all endeavours that a company is involved in, to go smoothly.
That is why betting companies promote their "Acca's" (accumulator bets) so heavily. They are a huge source of income because they do not pay out very often.
I do however think that Echo have an excellent range of opportunities to produce great returns over the next couple of years. If we can secure some decent income from EMS/ELM in the short term that would be fantastic as it would help fund projects just down the road. For example, wouldn't it be great to have the 4 well Tapi Aike program fully funded, even cash for more wells there. Or if we needed to drill more wells in the larger vicinity of a successful EMS, to prove up the concept. then fantastic.
But so much of this wish list relies on EMS flowing well (lol!!), so to speak.
If it does we might think of bringing drilling programs forward, the ball really starts motoring downhill.
So the Sunday afternoon question might be, forgetting a very large flowrate from EMS.
What flowrate would enable Echo to kick ahead with an enhanced well program??
WT
MrMarkyB
A good report that is not the lightest of reading!! lol
Read it, once again.
Off for a liedown.
WT
Jay_85
I think that the Company under MH will be different to the one that Fiona ran.
Some people are verbal and outgoing, others restrained and even reticent.
The story may be the same but the delivery - utterly different.
The entire operation has been kept under wraps except for the bare minimum of information.
The wellsite operation is "tight!!," I would expect no less.
The stimulation of EMS-1001 from the August 2018 Argentina Edison Report "will be closely watched," their words not mine. Any leak might have financial consequences for not only Echo but also CGC.
So I would expect any word from Echo or an interviewer to be neutral in the extreme, this is not the time to hint or excite a market looking for news.
You might have been looking for some enthusiastic comment, what we got is wholely in line with what I would expect from a proffesional with considerable experience.
We are only a few weeks away from the RNS, so back to being patient.
And to conclude, you say that "It worries me a little", might I suggest that if you want something to worry about then there is the possibility that EMS might not flow as well as we hope. A BIG possibility, I don't think so but it does exist and there might be a cause for concern. So worry on that!!
Me, I'll sleep like a baby because I know that all the worry in the world will not affect the outcome, good or not so good.
Have a cracking weekend.
WT
abzzba
I was being flippant!!
Sorry for any misunderstanding.
I imagine that with the driving, the move itself and all the ancillary stuff, you will have little or no spare time.
I am a little envious of your move to the Iberian Peninsula.
I love the food and wine there.
I am a Francophile and also adore Italy.
Best wishes on your adventure.
WT
abzzba
As I see it, the 4-way dip enclosure that EMS was targeted at, is a single trap with a surface area of 8 sq. kms.
The exciting point may be is that if EMS-1001 proves successful, Echo will have identified other leads updip of a similar nature, that have the same potential. I imagine that the EMS-1001 was the best one but who knows as the primary target on EMS was I think the Springhill (as per GC CPR) rather than the Tobifera.
But best wait and see, a couple of weeks minimum should deliver an RNS if all goes swimmingly.
So sit on your hands, take up a new interest to pass the time.
Have a good weekend,
WT
The question that I asked in the "Time with the Team session
Below is the exact wording that I used.
Q.1. Whilst it is appreciated that you cannot make estimates of the potential volumes of hydrocarbons that may be within the 4-way dip structure that EMS-1001 penetrated, could you give an estimate of the surface acreage that structure extends across? Just the size of the structure may be good information for shareholders and is unlikely to be of use to competitors? Even if you cannot be very explicit, you could express the number in say the ranges of 10 sq. km, 100 sq. km or improbably 300 sq. km, but more detailed would be better and appreciated?
The reply given was:
A 8 sq. km
No radii or diameters, just Eight Square Kilometres.
To be honest, I found the notion of an area (circle for argument) with a radius of 1.6 km somewhat disappointing but as that was his answer, ran with it.
I suggest that you base your calculations on this number which Julian Bessa supplied in answer to my question.
Have a tidy weekend.
WT
stix40
Whilst I applaud your optimism, I do think that it is very important that we keep our feet on the ground.
There are many factors that that might make EMS-1001 less than we hope for.
For example:
Porosity and Permeability
Well Pressure
Water Ingress
Echo while being enthusiastic regarding EMS, have cautioned us.
You must do flow and shut-in tests to get a feel for what the volumetrics may be.
For it to be an Eldorado, many stars must align perfectly.
It is far easier for hydrocarbons to do that in a sandstone resevoir than in a volcanic one.
Make no mistake, no one wishes EMS-1001 to be a resounding success more than me.
If I remember, in the flowrate sweepstake, I think that I forecasted a rate of 3000bbls/d.
But I do think that we should not get too excited before we see what the well has actually produced.
And as far as not being "too complex" they may have to frac several times!!
I hope not, but they may have to.
And if this is the message that you didn't want to see, then I make no apologies.
There still is a risk of failure.
The SP may fall to 5p.
But please do not shoot the messenger, I keep on saying:
Patience
Not a Slam Dunk
This is E&P
Like me, we should fervently hope for the best but at the back of our minds prepare for failure.
Like todays cricket in Barbados, West Indies 289, England 77 all out and WI now 58-1.
After wining 3-0 in Sri Lanka, many thought that this 3 match series would be a walk in the park.
Sport like E&P can throw up surprising and unexpected results.
And just to add to the uncertainty, I think that even if the EMS well flowrate is good, there may well be caveats warning that extended tests etc will be required to confirm etc.
WT
According to H-L, only 16 trades today with a total volume of 476k.
Biggest trade 76k, no point speculating whether they were buys or sells.
When I did a top up on Monday morning, I had to wait for 10 minutes before my buy eventually went through.
Is stock still hard to come by?
Are the MM's playing silly b#ggers?
Is there just no demand?
Are investors not selling?
Are traders keeping well clear, not shorting for example?
For someone taking a position on a rerate, for a good EMS result, with Ferric spherical items: this may be a golden opportunity for a punt!!
Please note, that I am NOT advocating such a course of action. E&P is gamble enough rather than risking money that one does not have!!
It is quiet, GF away for a few weeks, bought my wine, lots of paperwork done and one's mind wanders!?!
Can anyone explain the lack of interest or even action?
WT
Given the report that MH indicated 4 weeks seems reasonable.
But operations can go very well, and we might hear next week.
There again, an equipment failure and it is the middle of February or beyond.
Nothing is predictable, only indicative from previous fracturing jobs.
And each is unique, (I hate how that word is misused and misunderstood) and you can guarantee that these operations will be "tight!!"
I imagine that heads will roll in the figurative sense if there is a news leak.
And on site, the bare minimum of staff will know the numbers.
I do agree that as we get closer to the end of four weeks, pressure might inexorably build up on the SP.
And if we get to 5 weeks or more, the fun will really start.
Some investors may make predictions without facts, there will be ramping and the reverse.
There may even be some sad folk saying that they have a shedful of shares when they actually have none.
My advice is to look how long is their posting history?? That speaks volumes.
Lord help the traders who take a BIG punt and gets it wrong, although I think that the odds are in favour of a good or even great result.
I've been in E&P for far too long, not to know that there is no such thing as a Slam DUNK!!!
And whatever the outcome, it is unlikely to be binary.
We may have 150 bbls/d or 3000 bbls/d or less or more..The former will be worth around £1M / p.a to Echo, its not hard to work out the number for the latter and the far reaching implications..
These "waiting" days are the best ones, you hope but you do not know.
The hard stuff has already been achieved.
Now, all to play for, and for Echo to bring EMS home!!
WT
KhunG17
One can but hope!
I am exercising massive patience, as we are only about 2 weeks into the fracking program.
News in the form of an RNS at this stage might not be what we want to hear, given the MH guidance that was posted. There again, maybe the operation has gone very well indeed!! Who knows??
I will be looking for something at 14.00 Hrs today and for the forseeable future.
These are exciting days, and none of us "knows" which way it will go.
And if anybody says that they do, they are just spinning a roulette wheel.
This is truly what E&P is all about!
WT
Got there, Phew!!
28800 Echo @ 8.75P
That's me until the EMS-1001 RNS.
Happy, happy Monday morning!?!
WT