Member Info for WilyCoyote

1. What is a concern to me is : why haven’t the shorts exited yet?

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Is it because they are good at what they do?

Without knowing the various prices when all the shorters took out their various shorts -it's impossible to know if they are currently sitting on paper losses or profits.

Their average short positions might still be higher than the current WG price - in which case they can afford to wait a bit longer before reducing/closing their short positions

If you breach the 3% reporting level - or any other level above that - while concealing that fact with 3rd party buyers - then yes - Really.

The stock exchange has forced companies to reduce their stake - in one case I think they were told to sell all their interest - but that's going back 10 years or more

'hiding the wonership'

Investors are not permitted to hide ownership - asking 3rd parties to buy on your behalf will invoke some strong sanctions from the authorities

Buy volume almost 2 times the sell volume (2,335,641 vs 1,250,600) - but the price drops nearly 2.5%.

That suggests unwanted stock sitting on the books of the MMs

WG. Need a market cap of £868m+ too stay in the FTSE250 by Friday December 20th or they are out!

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Not Sure about those figures :)

From that link - as of Fri, 1 November 2024 - WG is at position 260 in the FTSE 350

That seems to be calculated with a share price of 125p giving a market capitalisation of 873 million.

From the same list - the company at the automatic exit point of the FTSE 350 has a market cap of 388 million.

All WG has to do - is finish ABOVE that market cap, in order to prevent an auto exit.

WG CURRENT market cap is 374 million - so not too much of a price rise is needed.

That's assuming all other market caps stay as is

The Market Size for WG is 15,000 - so yes - there would be a negotiation somewhere - unless a MM looks at a large trade - and makes a decision that they WANT that high volume on THEIR account - OR - they want that high volume OFF their account

Another factor - as if we needed more - is the fact that WG is now dangerously close to being automatically dropped from the FTSE 250 index - there might be some who would be happy to see that happening.

Then it would be a case of seeing how far the price drops after that possible exit - perhaps any potential bidder is waiting for that drop to materialise

Because if someone approached with a bid - they get a look at the books - long before the official report is due.

Also - if there IS a big problem that management know about - I think they would obligated to make that known to any bidder

I suspect the drop today and yesterday might be down to them exiting.

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Are the volumes and trade sizes over those 2 days large enough to take in a potential exit?

If you take this at face value, it sounds like they did a thorough job in quantifying their exposure, resulting in a $140M exceptional charge. Can they really have missed something material, which would require a further major write off? You would have thought that was unlikely.

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The 2 years of extricating themselves from some project commitments - has coincided with global inflation.

It may be that rising costs of materials and infrastructure needed for these projects was not fully accounted for in that process

LOL - you got a response - the share price dropped.

Many in here have probably bought in at 50-60p - 'expecting a response'

Some - like me - bought in yesterday at COB 53.8p - 'expecting a response'

Some will still be waiting - hoping to get a lower price - before they too will be 'expecting a response'

Picking the bottom of a price drop has no science to it - just maybe a bit of precedent to guide you - but this is uncharted waters for this company

I haven't over-invested - and am happy to hold for now and let this play out - but I'm sure some of the comments on here give an indication of who bought too high - who are still waiting to buy - and who got caught sleeping with shares having a price tag north of 150p

Some basic data regarding ownership breakdown...

General Public - 5.86%

Institutions - 93.5%

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93.5% held by institutions? Can I ask where you got those numbers?

The FT shows 45% - even FTSE100 struggle to reach THAT level

Directors sell for many reasons - the main financial one being the need to manage capital gains

Buying a holiday home - getting a divorce are probably the more common personal reasons

' more buys (esp. with that %) should translate into higher prices?'

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Not always - depends on what the MMs have lying on their books

But regarding WG - buy and sell volumes or almost the same at close of business

You do wonder the agendas and motivations for some people

On my mind it's quite simple....you either believe WG is mis priced and out risks more than priced in = buy/hold

You don't = sell

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The motivation is to make money

And whether or not the share has been mis-sold - a significant number of PIs will be making money from WG right now - buying and selling somewhere in the 55-65 window

But the ACTUAL price paid - or received is irrelevant - everyone involved in a transaction KNOWS if it is a buy or a sell.

Using the price to guess the status of a trade - when the price of a company's share spread is moving fast is a very misleading practice - and maybe that's the way the brokers and MMs like it.

But I suspect that the big players know the B/S status of every trade

Yes - it would be a very embarrassing mea culpa - one where heads would have to roll on the board.

The large sale that triggered this is still got mystery attached to it - Given the dates - I'm beginning to think it may have been a reaction to Trump - and perhaps the final nail in the coffin of ESG

Have Franklin given any info on the large sale that triggered this price crash?

I wonder if it will trigger an investigation?

' How can it be estimated differently'

My point is - why does it need to be estimated?

When I trade - I know if I'm buying or selling - my broker knows - the MM the broker uses knows - why does the B/S status suddenly become an estimate?

If a company experiences large swings in price - either down OR up - the company involved is quick to make a statement that they aren't aware of any reason that would shift the price by so much - have WG made such a statement?

Or more likely they KNOW the reason - and it's in their RNS - and they knew the impact that RNS would have

I have never understood - why the B/S status of each trade can't be clearly captured - AND shown - the data must be there in the trade.

Instead there is this arcane process of trying to figure out the status by looking at where the trade price fits in the current buy-sell margin