Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Panda - Nolupus identified around 150m in options/warrants/other potential dilutions. Probably about right. That’s a dilution of around 47% of the currently listed shares. So yes, by any appropriate use of the term -it is “shed loads”. But even assuming fully diluted 475m shares in issue, it still means market cap is £28.5m. Pretty cheap for a company with a fully funded ph3 in a big indication (just not as cheap as some of the ramp crew suggest)… ATB
Well cuvio, you stated in your previous post that full dilution should be shown in an investor presentation, now you are stating that you do not concede that options/warrants - a key part of a FD calculation - is a matter for an investor presentation. Perhaps another typo, like the 325M fully diluted figure you stated. ATB
Cuvio - thank you for conceding that the dilution should be in the presentation. I suspect you don’t see it often in company presentations, because circa 50% dilution is pretty unusual. All the more reason to show it. I couldn’t raise it at the AGM because the investor presentation was after the AGM. But in any case, one would hope the smallest nod to appropriate governance and IR would encourage management to include it. Regarding incanthera, the reason I am bringing it up now is because according to management the cash runs dry this quarter. This is a chat board for investors, and I suspect this is relevant information for them. ATB
Cuvio - any investor with two brain cells to rub together will be interested in full dilution amounting to nearly 50% of the current shares. It should be in an investor presentation. Immupharma shareholders should also note that incanthera is running out of cash this quarter, and management have a history of chucking Imm company cash at it… ATB
Look it up, pal. I don’t care. Imm chucked £2m at incanthera, an amount that could have helped them avoid material dilution at these lower levels. Along with the circa 150m fully diluted shares not mentioned in the investor presentation, it’s not a pretty picture, is it? ATB
Fingers crossed Incanthera don’t come knocking for more cash… the money IMM gave them last time now running out with nothing concrete to show for it… has anyone been held accountable for this shambles? Nope…now in Q3 2022. “ -- Cash balance at 30 September 2021 increased to GBP627k (2020: GBP433k), providing cash runway to Q3 2022.”
My guess is they have to consider what they will be willing to hold and potentially lose over the longer term. They can’t play the game of selling up prior to the phase 3 if/when the shares recover because - as management - that will never look good. Different story for PI’s however, who aren’t constrained in the same way.
“You mentioned the figure of 107 million warrants in total , but my figures are much higher circa 154 million “… wouldn’t surprise me at all. A 47% potential dilution not mentioned in the investor presentation. Ho hum..
Dallo. The option and warrant holders don’t have to invest a penny until the price rises, at which point they exercise and dilute your upside. What I am stating is not a controversial point. IMM has large potential dilution, and IR should be upfront about it. ATB
Dallo - the dilution takes place in the future in the event we see positive news. We take the risk, someone else skims the reward.
Cuvio - most companies don’t have the level of dilution here. If they did it would be entirely appropriate to make it clear during an investment presentation.
With due respect dallo, that is not right. The shares potentially face highly material dilution from options and warrants, limiting the upside, a fact that I had erroneously believed was reflected in the deferred share count. Our friend cuvio is right there, but he is wrong to state that the fully diluted number of shares is 325m. He can delight himself in his own time by looking up the definition of “full dilution” and realising his error. On the subject of whether full dilution calculations should be shown in an investor presentation - of course they should, if the aim is to give a true and accurate reflection of the investment proposition. This is particularly the case with imm, where it has a highly material impact on valuation. Yet IR chose to omit them… Exactly what is the impact of full dilution at the minute? No one seems to know… it was circa 25% back in November 2020, but I suspect post multiple raisings, the number will have jumped again. ATB
Cuvio - your statement that the fully diluted number of shares is 325m is completely wrong. In the November 2020 RNS, the company reported 311m shares on a fully diluted basis, and since then we have had multiple rounds of further dilution. So I ask again, what is the fully diluted number? If the deferred shares figure does not reflect it, then what does? The point that you have sat through the AGM and the investor presentation, and still believe the figure is 325m, is testament to the point that IR has failed to make the basic figures clear to you (or anyone). ATB
The fully diluted number of shares right now is far higher than the 325m you state, and any investment decision based on a valuation using that number will be a poorly informed one. The reason you and many others here are poorly informed, is because investor relations have thus far failed to give any clear guidance as to what the diluted number is, or will be post the latest dilution. The last time they gave clear guidance was November 2020 in a total share capital RNS, and it was around 300m then - there has been multiple dilutions since… Of course, knowing the diluted number of shares in issue is key to making an appropriate investment decision - unless you are somebody who is ok buying things without checking the price first. ATB