Re Lse-analyst24 Jun 2010 17:29
The outcome you describe is certainly possible (shares are risky.) but at 10% of the ipo price and trading below recoverable cash it is already priced for this risk. The cash drain scenario you paint is certainly not the one envisaged by management, who have recently claimed that beyond any of the optimists expectations the company can achieve cash flow neutrality running off current commercial assets. Burning the cash isn't the plan.
With regard to the field development the idea is to farm it out. Clearly this wasn't likely while the largest shareholder is looking to liquidate. Nor would it be likely that the licenses would retain any integrity without a large shareholder base and the backing of the ebrd.
Of course we can assume the worst, we can assume management are misleading us. But so far this new team have acted in our interests and have their reputations on the line. Management have been v clear in recent statements about their intentions, please read last prelims.