Member Info for Wigwammer

But also quite easy to see why there might be quite a lot of buying of PGD stock over the next 12 months. They have just had a significant resource upgrade, have purchased the optionality on this new field, and quite possibly will generate enough cash to pay off all the debt and fund significant investment over the next 12-18 months from internal resources. I’m sure it has all been said before - but perhaps not at this lowly valuation. Post dilution market cap circa £25m.

I guess they don’t care what price they buy at, in the sense they aren’t being diluted - yes, their existing holding is worth less but they get to increase their holding at a lower price. Shareholders also get an open offer to buy on a 1 for 4 basis - some dilution because it should be 1 for 2, but at least they thought about us! The 50%+ miguens holding is a bother - shareholders need to vote to dispense with mandatory offer rules. But I’m still holding out hope that the guy genuinely wants to build a successful business, that the assets have a value, that they are getting closer to generating cash and have multiple interesting avenues in which to reinvest. Perhaps he likes the listing because it gives access to capital and an easier exit route if all goes well. Fingers crossed this marks the turning point.

unlikely

I don’t know. But the funding gap here is not very large, £3-4m pa - helped by the point they do make high margin sales. That might be an onerous amount for a micro cap, but not for a mid/large cap looking to grow in the area but doesn’t want the 5-10 year development bill. Anyway - all theoretical - I doubt Parris will let this go unless a 200%+ premium is paid. Possible but I likely.

I’m sure it is a small holding now. But why did he buy it? Unclear from the blog. Best hope here I think is a take out. I think Parris knows he has something valuable, but at the corporate level is not exploiting it well. I recall the buybacks at multiples of the current price, and he has built in sizeable fixed costs with the enlarged sales team. Perhaps the regulatory push expected over 2018 will provide the impetus, but these things have a habit of taking longer than expected. High risk - but rewards on other side with sizeable and growing market and 90%+ gross margin also apparent - perhaps a predator will come in.

Ps “we own the stock”

True.. but the higher the volume the more shares have moved from people that don't want them to people that do. I'm not sure if we have a largish sub 3% holder still trying to get out (who started with circa 45m shares months ago) or if the mm's are pricing for a 1p issue to fund the silver acquisition. I hope and expect it to be the former rather than the latter. I remember a few years ago a large overhang in AAZ as a long term holder dumped around the lows, it then 5 bagged in short order. Here's to hoping. Good w/e all...

If it is van ecks 38m they would be under no obligation to report their change in holding as it is under 3%. While the selling has gone on for a long time, it may only amount to circa 38m in total. This is a thinly traded share so it doesn't take much to slam it - even a sub 3% holding can do it. I guess that depleting 38m holding at the bottom of a van eck fund sheet is little more than an eyesore they want rid of - but a great opportunity for a pi for whom the amount may be meaningful.

Another 1m sell appears after hours. The seller has the deftness of a brick.

The stock has fallen persistently for a long period now. No word of explanation from management, no holdings rns to inform of a seller, little trade information to explain the fall. Reflects badly on all involved.

Presumably the wait is because they want to pay for the silver option out of cash generated. No further dilution = great news (if confirmed).

"Annual volumes from currently identified opportunities against these agreements are expected by eServGlobal to be in the region of US$3-5 billion in the medium term." Conservatively assuming 0.5% transaction fee on this volume, at near 100% incremental margin, equates to $20m profit at the mid point. With a 35% stake, eserv will be getting $7m pa, or circa £5.1m. Put this on 20x, given anticipated growth, and you are already getting to £100m+ valuation for eserv's stake in Homesend, or 15p+ per share. ESG appears well undervalued.

Hmmm. Think I'd rather lose money on my PGD shares.

Have to agree, stew. Yesterday's RNS was good news - as positive as they can be about the outlook (without confirming cash in the bank!) the uncertainty for me near term is the silver option and if/how they fund it - but given the anticipated cash inflows they may be able to raise incremental debt rather than come to market. Surprised the reaction by the market is not more positive, but I think it will come.

Madmkts - From May. I think 186k is the number.. "The Company also continues to evaluate the previously announced pit expansion at Cap-Oeste which has the potential to increase overall production to 186,800 oz AuEq and to increase the mine life from two to three years, subject to a further investment of approximately US$2.5 million in machinery together with an increase in staff and related infrastructure"

Apols. At $500 gm per oz equates to $30m gross profit. Still very sizeable. Perhaps all is not quite lost.

"The production guidance for the year is still being estimated but it is expected that it will be below the previous estimate of 60,000 ounces for the calendar year." 60000oz at $800 cost oz equates to $48m gross profit. Even if the production is half of this, gross profit will equate to roughly the current market cap for this calendar yr alone. Encouraged that the problems are short term - should be resolved early September. They sound busy elsewhere too. My concern is - the shares have been weaker for far longer than since 21st aug where the weather took hold - is the weather the problem of is there some other bwollox going on.

Please read last rns. We are due an update any day now.

My thought from the last rns was mid August for news, so either this week or next. I wonder whether the movement down to 1.5p relates to their option on the silver assets - they anticipate placing at 1.5p like last time. Bear in mind they only have the option for 6 months - the clock is ticking if they are keen to get involved.

I agree madmkspan. News imminent and 68500oz expected this year. "Set-up and installation are then expected to take a further three weeks from the date of arrival and commissioning is now expected in early July, with the first ore to be treated immediately thereafter."