Member Info for Wiggly

Evan

Wood accepted Sidara offer at 230p and allowed full access for DD.

SIDARA pulled out due to geopolitical risks in middle East (Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran...) and US election uncertainty

Enterprise Value (EV) Calculation

2025 projected EBITDA: £394 million

Applying a 4.5x EBITDA multiple (from Sidara’s last bid):

EV = £394 million × 4.5 = £1.77 billion

Net Debt Adjustment

Net Debt (excluding leases): £690 million

Equity Value = EV – Net Debt:

£1.77 billion – £690 million = £1.08 billion

Per Share Valuation:

£1.08 billion / 650 million shares = ~166p per share

Valuation at Lower Multiples

3.5x EBITDA → EV = £1.38 billion → Equity Value = £690 million → 106p/share

4.0x EBITDA → EV = £1.58 billion → Equity Value = £890 million → 137p/share

With £690 million net debt, Wood's equity value is significantly higher than prior estimates.

Even at a conservative 3.5x multiple, a 106p bid is justified, while 4.5x supports 166p or more.

120p remains a conservative yet reasonable offer, with room for a higher premium if Sidara values strategic synergies.

Sidara's previous 230p bid valued Wood at approximately £1.5 billion.

Wood's 2023 adjusted EBITDA: $423 million (approximately £333 million).

This equates to a 4.5x EBITDA multiple (£1.5 billion / £333 million).

2025 projected EBITDA: $500 million (approximately £394 million).

Applying a 4.5x multiple: £1.77 billion valuation (approximately 273p per share).

Given Wood's debt (approximately £1.2billion) and refinancing needs, a lower multiple (3.5x–4.0x) is reasonable.

3.5x → £1.38 billion (approximately 212p/share)

4.0x → £1.58 billion (approximately 243p/share)

A bid below 120p undervalues Wood, even considering debt concerns.

120p remains a baseline, with potential for 150–200p if Sidara identifies strategic synergies.

While a 230p bid is less likely, Wood's growth outlook and EBITDA trajectory justify a significant premium over the current share price.

No chance of anything close to 200p in my view.

120p works for both Sidara and likely to be supported by IIs

Considering the available data and typical acquisition timelines, I assess the probability of Sidara submitting a binding bid next week to be approximately 70-80%. Assuming Sidara has completed its due diligence, as previously discussed, they are likely poised to proceed. Their substantial cash reserves enable an unencumbered bid, expediting the process. Prior expressions of interest further indicate their commitment. Furthermore, Sidara's strategic assessment of acquiring Wood should incentivize a swift conclusion. Therefore, given the current momentum and financial capacity, the likelihood of a binding offer next week remains high, estimated at 70-80%.

The 40p price is not indicative of Wood’s true value but rather reflects a temporary market mispricing driven by investor sentiment, market uncertainty, and short-term volatility. 120p is still realistic and achievable because it is based on Wood’s long-term earnings potential, projected EBITDA growth, and strategic value that Sidara sees in the company.

While the current price may seem disconnected from a 120p bid, the premium is grounded in Wood's long-term value and future prospects

A further extension is unlikely, as key hurdles have been cleared:

1. Due diligence is done – Sidara already reviewed Wood's financials in prior talks, so no further time is needed.

2. Financing is secured – With cash in place, there's no funding delay. A firm bid should follow.

3. Market and shareholder pressure – Investors expect clarity. Prolonging talks risks negative sentiment.

120p should be the minimum acceptable price.

1. Sidara's strong interest – Repeated bids show it values Wood highly; a final price of at least 120p is reasonable.

2. Wood's improving performance – Rising order books and stabilizing earnings justify a stronger valuation.

3. Investor expectations – Major shareholders are unlikely to accept less, given sector trends and comparable deals.

With due diligence done and financing secured, discussions will likely focus on regulatory clarity, board assurances, and final pricing adjustments. A binding offer of at least 120p should arrive soon—without the need for an extension.

Breaking out

Something up it seems

$2T of planned investment and WG primed for a significant market share.

Sidara know what's coming and hence they are back so soon.

They will pay fair value

Agree 100%. Talks would have concluded by now if deal was not possible.

Those shorts will also very likely have a long position.

News incoming imo

Ceo is in his 3rd year and all issues are legacy issues. Core business is strengthening

I don’t believe the major shareholders would accept that at this point.

Cash flow negative due to exceptional (non-repeat) costs. EBITDA expanding by double-digit % and a clear pathway to cash flow positive during 2026.

Why would they accept a low ball offer ?

The CEO has a major holding, so he will support what is best for shareholders. If that means rejecting a lowball offer, then so be it. That would mean he and the board of directors have confidence in the ability to turn things around.

Offer accepted = quick payday (e.g., 1–2 months)

Offer rejected = large payday but in 1–2 years

In confidential M&A discussions like those between Wood Group and Sidara, the number of executives involved is typically kept small — often 5 to 10 key people. This usually includes the CEO, CFO, general counsel, and senior strategy or corporate development leaders. External advisors like investment bankers and legal teams also play a role, but direct access to sensitive discussions is limited to minimize leaks and maintain confidentiality.

The fact that discussions between Wood Group and Sidara have been ongoing for two weeks can be seen as a positive sign. It suggests both sides are seriously engaged, likely working through due diligence, valuations, and deal terms. Lengthier talks often indicate progress toward a potential agreement.

Perhaps a tax advantage could be realized from the massive CGT loss (Barclays Bank) with the asset acquired via Barclays Capital using financial instruments with favorable tax treatment. Just guessing from my side.

They've moved from 0 to +5%.

Leak....