Member Info for Wiggly

Sale is about maximising value for shareholders. Unless it's 120+, I'm sure most LTH would prefer to take some short term pain (RI or asset sale) and ride this for another 3 years.

The 1b includes leases. It's 690m excluding leases.

The key point is the optionality.

I cannot see how Sidara could steal this.

Calculations are correct, FH, but £1b for consulting seems high. But if that's the number FT refers to....then perhaps it's valid.

WG optionality (e.g. break up of business) plus Sidara desire to acquire as a whole should enable a decent sale value. ..

Hopefully not long to find out. Has to be a multiple (s) of 40p IMO

Suspect the BOD meeting will be at 430pm UK time.

The offer will be disclosed and likely notified to market after hours or tomorrow am

The fear was down to a very poor CEO presentation. The clown needs to go

Why was it so poor?...

BOD and directors meeting to vote?

About to test 40s

Thanks Isle for the insight. What time is the meeting and is it in Aberdeen?

News breaking from UAE...?

Sham

Sidara know the books inside out. They could have sat on the sidelines and awaited WG's downfall, if that is what you personally expected to happen. Sidara obviously does not think that will be the case; hence, they have moved immediately after the six-month cooling-off period.

Possible Offer Scenarios:

Let's base estimates on reasonable EV/EBITDA multiples:

Conservative (5.0x): Reflecting market uncertainty and short-term cash flow issues.

Balanced (5.5x): Acknowledging growth potential while pricing in risk.

Aggressive (6.0x): Matching the previous offer's multiple.

2025 Estimated EBITDA: ~$500 million

Net Debt: ~$1.26 billion

Shares Outstanding: ~691 million

Expected Offer:

Considering all these factors:

Sidara's strategic interest in Wood is clear—they have invested time and resources in due diligence.

Wood's growth potential from 2025 supports a higher valuation despite current cash flow issues.

Sidara's leverage and the market's current pessimism likely push them toward a lower bid.

My best estimate: 160p to 180p per share—a meaningful premium over the current share price (~40p) but below the withdrawn 230p offer.

Sidara offered 230p six months ago. Expect they can secure 50% discount which is not warranted with both ebita and order book growing

Would like to see 100p prior to reveal.

Why would the offer from Sidara be at least 100p? Circa 60% below last offer. Big drop over 6 months

Price indication could land anytime

Monty

The Board was notified by Sidara this morning that it does not intend to make an offer for Wood in light of rising geopolitical risks and financial market uncertainty. As a result, Sidara is bound by the restrictions set out in Rule 2.8 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Code").

Monty

Maybe they were more concerned with the US election and the Middle East war—both looking much better now for WG. If it was the books, they could have just said that 230p offered overvalued the business based on due diligence.

Sidara's previous offer implied an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 6.0 times Wood Group's 2024 adjusted EBITDA.

If Sidara offered the same EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6.0x based on Wood Group’s 2025 projected EBITDA, we can estimate the new offer.

1. 2025 Projected EBITDA:

Wood Group expects double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA for 2025. Assuming 10% growth over 2024’s $455 million:

2025 \text{ EBITDA} = 455M \times 1.10 = 500M

2. Enterprise Value (EV):

Applying the 6.0x multiple:

EV = 500M \times 6.0 = 3.0B

3. Net Debt:

As of mid-2024, Wood Group’s net debt was ~$1.26 billion. Assuming it stays around this level:

Equity \text{ Value} = EV - \text{Net Debt}

Equity \text{ Value} = 3.0B - 1.26B = 1.74B

4. Shares Outstanding:

Wood Group has ~691 million shares.

5. Implied Share Price:

\text{Share Price} = \frac{1.74B}{691M} = 2.52 \text{ USD}

At 1.30 USD/GBP, that translates to:

2.52 \text{ USD} \div 1.30 = 1.94 \text{ GBP}

Final Estimate:

If Sidara offered the same 6.0x EBITDA multiple, the offer would be approximately £1.94 per share (194p).

Sidara will want to ensure no counter offer.

Based on last bid, they also clearly see value significantly higher than current equity value.

I'm feeling confident the offer will surprise to the upside