Member Info for WiganWarriors

Tinlid. I have neither long nor short positions in PFG, just an interest in situations like this. I take it that you are long, underwater, and are desperately trying to seek comfort from other posters who will reinforce your own viewpoint. Lets wait and see how this plays out, however there is more pain to come. My opinion is worth no more, nor less than anyone else.

Generally speaking II do not try an manipulate the market, as suggested by squeezing "Shorters", that is left to the Hedgies. In fact, the original owners of shares which get shorted actually are out on loan from the larger II, for a fee. When "surprises" occur some II will dump their stock as soon as convenient and move on, others are either not able to or decide to make the most of a bad situation. For example average down and hope for recovery, or hope for a cash call and acquire a larger % pending recovery. PFG is a classic example of this behaviour. As this process unfolds you end up with fewer II who hold a greater % of outstanding stock, and have decided, for whatever reason that they are stuck and look to make the best of a bad situation. I believe that is where we are now. The remaining II are expecting a cash call, and will only support it if the terms are attractive. The Hedgies will probably be making hay and selling down to help force this issue, and buying up outstanding debt (along with II) in order to force managements hand. It is hard to see how this will have any other ending than a cash call, and a large dilution. Don't forget the II can wait years before they get a return, something retail investors are not able to do. Or course IMHO.

For what its worth I agree with "Break1". There are still too many unknowns, and probably unknown unknowns which have yet to unravel. Also, I would urge caution with respect to upcoming communication, as there is a good chance that a cash call will be made in order to try and stabalise the business ahead of likely significant fines and client reimbursement for miss selling. Normal Bank debt or Bond issuance is not available to them as it stands, so without this the company could face collapse if more bad news surfaces.

Don't disagree. However, the "Builders" will always be a Political football in the UK. At the moment it is as good as its gets, with low interest rates, "help to buy", low SDLT at the cheaper end and benign land prices. Yet they are not likely to outperform, or even perform in line with the Market as a whole. IMHO I can't see any of the fancy SP predicted on this Board being achieved anytime soon, and if we manage to peak (albeit temporary) to 210(ish) at some point in the next 12 months I guess that will be as good as it gets.Builders have been trading on sentiment for the last couple of years, rather than fundamentals and personally I can't see that changing much in the short term. So, need to use it as a trading opportunity, and just trade the swings.

Yeah, this has been well telegraphed over the last few months, as Sterling has been steadily rising. Also the Bond Market has finally started to sell off anticipating higher interest rates, with the BoE has now formally confirmed what the Market has been telling us.

On a price weighted method (DOW) then there are an equal number of shares for each company. I'm not sure what that number is for the DOW, without research. However, in your example each of the companies would have the same number of shares as part of the DOW basket. So it will be say 100 shares X $4 for one company and 100 X $1 for another, and so on. Whereas, in the FTSE weighting method is based on capitalisation so the bigger companies (BP, HSBC, Shell etc) each have a greater percentage of the FTSE index, than for example TW does, because their larger capitalisation gives them a bigger slice of the FTSE pie.

Well, if I understand your musing ... As an example you will note that Thursday's are the ex-div date for the FTSE 100. So, all FTSE shares go ex-div on Thursday morning, which means that the ex-div companies share price is lower on Thursday morning. Therefore the FTSE which is an amalgamation of all the constituent shares will open lower (all things being equal) on Thursday mornings. Various market reports will forecast that the FTSE will open 5, 10, 15 (or whatever) points lower as a result of the ex-divs. Now, the weighting of each company in an index reflects either the capitalisation value or share price price of each constituent of the index. These days most indexes use capitalisation as the weighting method (such as the FTSE 100), whereas the Dow still uses the share price as the weighting method.

The DOW is a very narrow Market in terms of reflecting the wider economy. These days the damage gets done with the tracker funds trying to reduce their exposure, rather than individual stock selling. Of course that happens, but has nowhere near the impact that ETF / C's have on indices when they head for the exit. ETF / C's by their nature are all Algorithmic trades so little human intervention creates accelerating momentum leading to more volatility. I would consider this just a blow off and it will settle down once we have 10 - 15% reduction in indices.

There are two processes at play here. One is the ex-div process were all platforms that trade TW (or for that matter any share), open on ex-div day minus the published dividend. The second is the payment process, were the respective companies registrar organises the payment (or Scrip / Drip) and requires a list of shareholders eligible for payment. This is the record date and it is taken after close on the previous trading day before ex-div.

Nothing new really, politicians repeating populist mantra's. https://www.thetim...to-build-xg9jshchd. Decent bet if Wimps fall below 190, place trade as SB and collect tax free dividends, as long as you believe you will get your original price paid back some time this year.

Just brought it forward, given issue with Yemen shipment. It will count as a "profit warning". Likely won't hear anything else until results posted. IMHO, don't think that this is a serious setback for the business as a whole, however I do think that the Market is reconsidering NICL status as a "growth" stock.

Well, IMHO, I think that the SP is unlikely to push on as much as other pundits are suggesting, given the recent trading statements which indicate that price growth will likely only cover inflationary input, and not much more. Also, article in FT today also commented that Builders are ready for profits plateau, the good times over ... However, I would suggest that we are now looking at maintaining sight improvement from a metric perspective; EPS, ROCE, OPS Return etc., meaning still healthy cash flow enabling dividends to be paid, and maybe continue special shareholder distributions. The next significant calendar event (not withstanding finals) will be the Strategy announcement first half 2018, which will lay out the next three year plan and target distributions. Until then I think we will need to live with an SP around �2, give or take depending on market sentiment.

Yeah, also include CFD trades as well. Personally, I don't think that this fall has been the result of CFD / SB hedging but more likely Hedge Funds planning to sell if update flat. Revenue was below consensus, and even below the lowest estimate. Cost inflation offset price rises, so whilst company in good shape from a profit and cash generation perspective, growth is unlikely as housing market flattens out.. Wimps normally takes around two weeks to stop falling on market related news, so see where we are in a couple of weeks, maybe worth buying more then for long term holders.

Well, the counter party to your "bet" will hedge your position in the market if you are classified as a tier one trader (you win more than you lose), otherwise they will carry the risk themselves (either if you tend to lose your bets or they can offset against other opposite trades on their books). So, if lots of SB taken can have an effect as hedges are put in place.

Yeah, can't count special dividends, as they are just that; special. Subject to share holder approval we will get one in July, however we won't know if they will announce one to be paid next year until the half year results issued. So, what price Wimps later this year if no special dividend announced for payment next year, and a difficult macro environment (Brexit, World events, falling Pound, General Election called ...). 170 / 180 maybe before special ex div day ... Of course I would prefer north of 200, but there are no guarantee's.

Didn't think that the "profit warning" was that bad. UK and Africa growing strongly, just Yemen and possibly Saudi slowing. Looking at what goes to Middle East, and potential slow down set against growth elsewhere i am a little surprise they have guided to low single digit next year. Unless something else afoot. Maybe planned increase in Marketing expenses, or acquisition ? Either way, they reassured on continued progressive dividend policy so more shares at this price if your are in the DRIP, or higher % return if not.

Looks like Chartist2's libelous post re Liburnum has just been removed. Liburnum are not shorting PFG, its not what they do. They provide, amongst other services, advisory services to investors who may short. Seems more desperate retoric from him to try and justify his seemingly unending attempts to talk up PFG. IMHO PFG are not investable at the moment until all the rocks have been lifted, and trying to trade requires some luck to exploit news flow related swings.

Don't wish to be rude, however you are giving credence to the old adage that "chartists" make horoscope readers look respectable :-) Never seen so much meaningless drivel consistently pumped out. Price discovery in stocks like PFG is nigh impossible under these circumstances, until a clearer picture of accounts and liabilities are made public. Until then professional traders (and I would not include Woodford) will pull the shares around to generate profits. Amateur retail investors like the majority on this Board are just cannon fodder and likely to lose money if they listen to the majority of what is posted here. Of course IMHO.

As a matter of interest has anyone else got any RSE

SL historical P/E ratio is 28, but earnings are expected to double this year, so all things being equal forward P/E should be around 12. With a likely dividend of around 6%.