Member Info for WiganWarriors

Whilst not wishing to offend, and I have no position in ITV or agenda to push apart from balance, I am intrigued by the guesswork and lack of knowledge of posters. Most posters bought on the gossip about a bid, likely a while ago at > �2, and have been "topping up" since. IMHO this is a physiological driven response because they have set the value at the price they paid, and find it difficult to accept they were just gambling and should have got out once the smart money headed for the exit. Either way, I have just had a quick look at the situation re GS. Posters who think GS have ~20% voting rights are wrong, they have ~ 0.3% voting rights, but have taken out long dated options and a few Swaps. Only if these options are executed will they have those voting rights, and in my opinion it is highly unlikely as that is not their game. However, it may be, or may not be a coincidence that the two biggest shareholders have a stake which is ~20%; Liberty and Capital. Those are the basic facts re GS, they do NOT have 20% voting rights, just some long dated options. Now, you may wonder what their game is, and I have a few ideas. However, for the less experienced on this Board I would not plan on a bid arriving soon, and as I have suggested previously given the general market nervousness the share price could well fall further. As usual, IMHO.

Most of the trades which are shown later than the close auction, are in fact just late registrations. They could have been transacted earlier in the day, or at another exchange and are being only just being recorded. Some trade types can also have an attribute set which allows late recording as well.

In the interest of balance. You say the share price has been falling the last few days ... the share price has been falling for over two YEARS now. There is next to zero chance of a bid, this is just gossip whilst the smart money has been getting out and the dumb money has been chasing dreams. ITV is "old tech" in terms of their business model, and not really worth much to the "new tech" media businesses. There are some parts of ITV that could attract buyers, for example the production side but take that out and there is not much left. Therefore, I would suggest that there is nothing to drive the share price forward, and if the market is nervous and adopts a "risk off" mentality then they will likely drift further south. Of course, IMHO.

Oliver Letwin's review (phase 1) has now been delayed until June, apart from a small subset focusing on rate of sales on larger sites, which was released yesterday. Apparently the review committee needs to nip over the Channel to see how Johnny Foreigner builds houses. IMHO this will only perpetuate the uncertainty and likely poor sentiment for the builders. Can't see any reason for their respective share prices to rise much given this continued uncertainty, heightened political tension and all within a backdrop of BREXIT. Seems to me that most larger investors will take a glass half empty view, and wait and see before committing more cash to the sector. I would also suggest that it will be especially difficult for the larger builders (Wimps, PSN and BDEV), as they have most of the largest sites. With Wimps exposed to central London and with the largest land bank I would guess they will hold the wooden spoon for a while. Probably best to take the next six months off on holiday, and return later in the year and see how things have panned out. On the flip side, when sector sentiment is poor and the resultant undervaluation of some companies it is usually a good time to fill your boots, assuming that you are prepared to wait it out.

We live in an interesting world at the moment, and after such a good run on the markets over the last few years the markets could succumb to profit taking if we hit a "risk off" period. More pertinent to ITV, if the Russian incident escalates the World Cup may suffer commercial embargoes, if not actual teams withdrawing. Either way that will deter advertising spend and it may end up being a subdued affair. All these factors taken together may mean that ITV could get worse before it gets better. Always best to consider situations from the current perspective, rather than worry about only ever selling at a price higher that paid.

The interim report will be released tomorrow, which should detail the findings. Then phase 2 (what to do about the findings) will get underway and be released in time for the 2018 Budget (Autumn 2018). Would be good if the findings exonerate the builders from land banking, especially as Wimps has one of the largest landbanks. Otherwise if the review finds that builders have been profiteering by holding land back, then likely will mean a suppressed share price until the Chancellor decides how to penalise the builders in the Budget.

All builders subdued recently. Likely waiting for outcome of Sir Oliver Letwins review of planning permissions granted, verses housing build out. Scheduled to be released tomorrow. So, could be a fillip for the builders, or just add more downward pressure.

I agree. I wasn't expect such a jump in revenue given the "profit warning" re Yemen. So at least they are increasing general sales at a fair lick. Also interesting re their comments about joint initiative with ICEE. See it that develops into anything meaningful. This may be enough to stop the drift downwards in share price.

That is correct, the GROSS profit was �1,033,000,000 on revenue of �3,965,000,000, with an OPERATING profit of �841,200,000. Its all in the accounts if anyone wishes to check.

A full breakdown of where the profit comes from is made available in the Accounts. For example, in round figures: Average Selling Price for last year was �264,000, land cost �45,500, build cost �144,000, selling and other miscellaneous �6,000 giving a profit of �69,300 per unit. This is based on average selling price, so includes private and affordable units. Further breakdown available if you look at the accounts. Compared with four years ago the average selling price was �191,300 with a unit contribution to profit of �38,800. Land price per unit has remained pretty flat, as has the selling costs and the build cost has risen ~ 40%.

Unusually, Wimps made the AGM presentation material available on their website before the scheduled call and the Market opening. If you were starting from with a glass half empty perspective, then your eyes would be drawn to the slides which show a slowing in second half 2017, and I suspect that this spooked the Market somewhat. However, when everything else out in context, things settled down a little when presentation and Q&A digested. Wimps really is the share that keeps on giving ...

Hi Sophiebella, the short answer is yes. When you crystallise a gain it is subject to CGT. So, when your shares are sold in order to move to an ISA if they show a gain above your annual CGT allowance, you are due tax 😱.

Tinlid. I was just providing an illustration using a 1 new share for current 2 held example. You are correct if its a 1:1 at �5 that's �500M. However, this is what the Bankers and II's will be discussing, issue at a large discount to current price and you need to issue a lot more shares to get your �500M, resulting in greater dilution and all things being equal a lower share price. Or risk issuing less shares at a higher price might mean they get left with the Bankers (underwriters), and they will dump them as soon as they are released from their underwriting obligation which would likely suppress the share price for a while. IMHO best to wait and see how it pans out, as there will be plenty of time to buy at a price which will make money over the medium term. Can't see any quick recovery though, I would plan on a two year period. Anyway, I'll sign out for now and get back to my own trades :-)

Myfairlady. The price of the new issue is not connected to the the number of new shares issued. At the moment ~150,000,000 shares issued, so if a new share is issued for every two in existence, then that is 75,000,000 new shares, making 225,000,000. If I understand your comment correctly.

Should have re read before I uploaded. Correction, you will see a loss of �2 on original purchase.

By way of example, lets assume that they issue new shares at �3, on a 1 new share for every 2 currently held. Lets assume that you paid an average of �6 for your current 100 shares. Therefore, �600 current investment plus (50 new shares at �3 = �150), making a total investment of �750 for 150 shares = �5 per share. All things being equal (however its likely that Arbs will be trading the Rights against the underlying shares, so it won't be equal), dilution will occur as there are 50% more shares in circulation. Originally there were ~ 150,000,000 now there are ~225,000,000 so the opening price for the shares on the day the rights are listed will fall accordingly; to �4. You will be showing a loss of �1 on your original price paid of �6, and an equal gain of �1 on your rights which you paid �3 for. So, you have trading options to wait and buy up rights if they drift below �4, or take up the rights and sell in the market making a pound, or more if they rise. However, the professionals will be doing the same on a large scale so hard for small retail investors to make money. Maybe best to load up at this new price and assume company will now recover in a couple of years now they are properly funded. Assuming they get some decent management in place. As I pointed out earlier, if you believe that there will be a cash call, no point buying before as you will take the dilution hit.

Aimtitan. Other sources of funding are not open to them, a cash call is the only route they have left. Look at the last set of accounts (year ending 2016, and it will have deteriorated since then), and you will see they have �1.8B total debt. The current market cap is ~�800M, and shareholder equity is ~�790M. This plus their declining free cash flow means the business will not be able to borrow from normal Bank or Bond financing routes. Issuing paper is the only option.

It is not a case of Barclays ripping anyone off, its basic risk management. Any cash call needs to be underwritten in situations like this, so the Bankers will look to the lower end just in case they get stuck with the rights. The Bankers primary interest are the underwriting fees, not ending up with a stake in PFG. The II's are likely feeling misled by current management and will want the best price for throwing more money at the problem. The current Exec management won't have a great deal of input, apart from ensuring that any cash call is underwritten, so they can put this behind them, load up on LTIP options at this low price and look towards a prosperous retirement ...

Well, there is no doubt that current Exec management are sidelined whilst the Bankers are working with the II's to see what terms they will accept for a cash call. IMHO it is likely to be at least 1:2 or even 1:1 in order to gain their support, otherwise they will go the way of Carillion. Other ways of raising finance are not really an option, given the current uncertainty re future fines, cash flow etc. No point buying in now, might as well wait until the terms are agreed. Don't even think that there is an outside chance of private equity, as the II's hold all the cards given their % holding. The II's will drive a hard bargain for their cash ...

For what its worth, I believe that there will be a cash call and that it will be much more heavily discounted than 15 - 20%. You only get one go, and you had better make sure it is enough to restructure the balance sheet and ensure cover for operational burn, exceptionals, potential fines and mis-selling claims. However, in order to make a cash call they will need to disclose the current financial and operational situation of the business to a level of detail which will enable investors to decide to stump up, or walk away. Day trading apart, at this point it will be a good opportunity to assess the future potential of the business and buy into a medium / long term recovery with the hope of making a significant amount, especially if you structure your trades via SB's. Usually, in these situations it is best to let the dust settle after the call, and there will be plenty of opportunities to buy in near the bottom.