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Probably a recent record, but during the warrants debacle when the SP was plummeting then I seem to recall complete pandemonium and perhaps double the volume of posts!!

I see what you mean about the you tube clip. More prospects in UK and Norwegian basements....

So the Lincoln drill took less than 2 months back in late 2016, probably cost around £20m (ish), and from memory was never flowed or tested. But as a result we have a farm in worth up to $387m, backed by CENTRICA (MCap £8bn), plus a forecast of FOIL and associated cash flow from a second producing field in a little over 2 years time. And it simultaneously de-risks the business (assuming no link to Lancaster FOIL that has not been disclosed!) and allows us to progress Lancaster at a faster rate by linking to infrastructure.

Provided your specs aren't rose-tinted, then that looks like a good deal to me that properly underpins a MCap of £1bn+ for a company yet to generate any income. We can all wish it were more, but this looks like a deal where everyone wins.

Interesting they timed the announcement for the start of term! And the news flow with the FPSO and SURF will follow soon.

And they've made a point of highlighting the proximity of Solan/Strathmore on the top view map. More news to follow?

ADUK

Some background info at this link.

https://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/noga95/prov9/text/prov9.pdf

The full report is a good summary of PPC plus other Argentinian plays. hTtps://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=19&ID=21819&dir=sectorreports&field=19&utm_campaign=1276826_Exploration%20watch%20-%20Argetina%2021082018&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Edison%20Investment%20Research%20Limited&dm_i=2PWO,RD7E,4M3PCK,2SXHY,1

Exploration watch - Argentina - upside potential across range of plays Argentina has experienced major changes in its oil and gas industry over the last five years. The country holds world-class shale potential in the Vaca Muerta and is the second-largest shale region undergoing development in the world after the US. Discovered in 2010, the Vaca Muerta has attracted major companies to invest in the region including Chevron, Dow, ExxonMobil, Shell and Total. Production has historically been dominated by the state majority-owned company Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF), but this is shifting as it partners with the majors to develop the Vaca Muerta and as the country moves to more market-friendly policies under President Mauricio Macri, elected in 2015. Unconventional development is not the preserve of the majors, however, and independent Phoenix Global Resources’ 2018 programme is designed to accelerate unconventional growth in the Vaca Muerta. Meanwhile, the shift of focus of the majors to unconventionals has created an opportunity for independents operating in the conventional space, where production has been declining. Both President Energy and Echo Energy are focused on growing conventional production in Argentina and have active programmes in 2018.

By hard and fast sales, do you mean like the 50kt RNS'd on 11 Jun? That one order puts the company in to profit for the year given the margin achieved.

I think it was $322m in lump sum and $107m reimbursables. Transferring the risk was part of the company philosophy which usually means a higher fixed fee with less need for contingency. The reinburables cover everything from SURF to Hur project management.

I'm uncertain how much contingency will be released by early foil.

No. It's ovoid with a bulging equator and flattened poles. ;-)

The company are very clear on their website on EPS objectives.

1 To provide long-term production data to enhance understanding of reservoir characteristics and associated full field development scenarios
2 Commence development of the resources in a phased manner with regard to managing uncertainties over reservoir characteristics and associated development risks
3 Deliver an acceptable return on investment

I would paraphrase as 'test the model', 'disprove the water breakthrough risk' and 'make money'.

JimV. What's the reference for that aside from asides that are not clear in interview. And how are you defining 'field', Lancaster, LanFax or all the assets. My point is about what HUR and Kerogen want for best value - not the counterparties.

My thoughts for what it's worth.

Lincoln should be the first of the 3 drills assuming a design can be found to make it a producer and tie it back to the AM. The 6km 'limit' should not be a hard cut-off.

The staged appraisal of so much oil makes me think that the way to achieve best value is to sell off the fields as individual assets rather than a full takeover. The more positive evidence we have for each field the better the deal we are likely to receive. This wouldn't be straightforward - selling LanFax without proving it as a single reservoir is difficult, therefore DSPPs staged approach with options would make sense.

Retention of a % holding is likely. This keeps RT and his expertise on the inside which I would suggest the co-owners would want. I'd be surprised if we kept as much as 20%.

Money received will obviously depend on the terms of the deal, there may not be that much cash if we keep a large %. A large part of it will be carry for FFD. However, I think a bigger cash sum and a smaller % of production better fits the HUR model. The company will not be allowed to sit on excess cash it has no plans for. Therefore a special dividend or share buy-back (which often has better tax implications) is definitely an option.

Timing is difficult, but I would hope by late Q2 and Q3 next year that the bid speculation is in full flow. And provided the world economy has not dropped off a trade war cliff, then hopefully it will be extremely rewarding.

The SP is not what you should be looking at. Look up definitions for market capitalisation or enterprise value if you want to understand heft.. Try Investopedia.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp

I agree with what you say regarding VHF. And i don't ship watch so haven't seen the corruption you are describing, but the messages on here have described a slow drift. I would have thought VHF interference would effectively jam the signal - rather than spoof it in to a slow drift. And wouldn't the VHF transmitter be mast mounted and nowhere near the cable?

It's unlikely that the power cable is the source. AIS takes position from a GPS signal. GPS drift is a pretty common phenomenon, the usual cause us simple multi-pathing of the signals into the GPS receiver (I would surmise the aerial is mast mounted although I'm no ship watcher and not close to the power cables.)

I agree re: BHP - but the similarity is the large volumes. What I don't have is figures for comparable large asset sales for 2C. I did see a small FPM purchase in the North Sea last year at $3 per barrel 2P.

As to the question of what closes the gap between current / future value, then FOIL. Will be part of it. But the main part is likely to be bid speculation in perhaps Q2 or 3 2019. IMHO.

Unfortunately I have no idea re: BHP value. However, I do see HURs future value being driven by the valuation attached to the circa 2.5bn of 2C resources. Using the HUR base estimate of NPV of £525m suggests to me that the current 2C value is in the range of 27-42c per barrel. I've made a number of assumptions in this around oil price, discounting Whirlwind, discounting the NPV pre-EPS, currency etc. Some assumptions will be wrong, but the gist is our 2C has limited value.

Assuming a successful EPS, then it is very obvious to me that the future value ascribed to 2C will be the key driver of the SP. If the 2C remains down around the 50c per barrel then the SP will see some growth, but pretty limited. A 2C value of $1 would take us up toward £1 and success at Warwick takes us further still. Again, I've been conservative and made assumptions regarding the conversion of the CBs.

So my question is, what examples of 2C valuation do others see, either BHP or elsewhere?

Outstanding interview. Great optimism on future prospects. Korea, China, LatAm, a 'few' Google Play routes.

Amazing - you were emailing before the RNS. Very prescient. And get real, a strategic partnership at board level takes more than a few days to filter down to the sales force with all of the necessary technical and pricing info let alone training.

A good clear explanation of the incentives offered for attracting google play business.