Member Info for WG818

This did make me smile

“Highlander1970 - you do realise Angus have extracted over £20 million pounds worth of gas(so far) and have stated in previous RNS that the field could last 10 years!”

The trouble with this perfectly correct statement is that it actually cost circa twice that amount to actually achieve, and that’s without the 2 Billion odd extra Shares that have been issued…….and the other inconvenient fact that uk natural gas prices were more thandouble what they are now for a large portion of that.

They have to find £9 million this year just to Stand still with the essential work that needs carrying out, and without that £2.5 million compressor actually stop producing.

Gas prices fell from the open this morning to 69p per therm as I type.

Let’s not forget that they haven’t actually said how much of MR Forrest's (Forrum Energy ) £5.2 million owed money will be in that £20 million should the deal actually get over the line.

Didn’t they pay a couple of million less than the market cap for his 51%?……..

HIT,s

For gods sake will you stop replying to the unbalanced one!

Nothing a troll hates more (and make no mistake that’s exactly what he is) than being ignored.

Your responses to him just throw up the same old lies time and time again. Anyone reading his comments and reading his history will realise what a fool he is.

Again please just ignore the berk!

Mr Singhie

The gas price at present is still at least a third above its historical average (pre Covid, the Russian invasion, Gaza, and the Red Sea situation) It’s sitting at exactly what the company itself has said is break even. 0.66p per therm, and that is for peak winter prices. Its will fall as it historically does come the summer months ( it hit the mid 0.5 range last year and will likely be below that level when the Red Sea situation is resolved.

Let’s not also forget that the Angus accounts from earlier this year list Saltfleetby as being classified as a liability at uk Natural gas prices below circa 0.80p.

Then have a look at the figures that the CPR were based on. They are roughly double what they are today

2024…..128.3 p per therm

2025119.0p per therm.

Don’t for one minute think that Trafigura won’t be looking again at the deal with all the facts listed above.

So, the £6 million… now more like £7 million bridge matures tomorrow.

Will they extend for another three months?

Will the global finance be in place (doubtful)?

Will Aleph decide to convert all or some? (It’s game over if they convert enough to take them over 30% being affiliated to Kemexion)

Will the lenders of the new £20 million still be interested as gas is at roughly the level that is described as break even in the Q&A at peak winter prices! A long way from the £1 that they said makes it investable.

I guess we should get an RNS one way or the other?

Link to NSTA figures. Zoom in to Saltfleetby on the map and the figures become available.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=984eeea3b1664049b12c02a28478bdaa%0A%20

Tony. Probably best to have read the previous quarters RNS before posting that. The plant and specifically one of the compressor packages was actually out of action for far longer in Q3 than in Q4.

Worth having a look on the NSTA website for the actual figures produced.Octobers figures have just been published 7.99 mmscf/ d and where better than September 6.97 mmscf/and August 7.88 mmscf/d , July was the peak production at 8.62 mmscf/d.

Don’t forget they have told us that they have a net pressure regime in place following the permanent pipeline connection. November and December figures will be much lower as we know from the national grid published figures.

Also worth noting that they again failed to provide the well head pressure. 17.5 barg being critical!

It’s also worth considering that if Aleph or associates decided to convert a portion of that 6million bridge loan on the 19th of this month the Bridge facility can be converted @ @ 25% discount to the 30 day VWAP subject to a floor of 0.4 pay the lenders option.

So they could convert a small percentage and drop the 300 million warrants to about 0.4 p if they don’t get the deal done by the 19th (see the 29th July RNS)

Ahh…..you got me onetomany!

Yes my post was a little misleading. The new guys 25 milllion at 0.67 p ( apologies ) are options, and the 300 million warrants available to Aleph and affiliates can be converted @ 0.66 not 0.65, unless they do another raise below that figure! They would then drop to whatever price that would be!

Yes I was slightly out in my 10% on Natural Gas also. It opened on Tuesday at 76p per therm and is now 86p per therm…..

Apart from those slightly incorrect figures ( now corrected) the rest are just facts!

Pish, is telling everyone that there was zero risk (22ndJuly) when the share price was roughly double what it is now, or your final nail in the coffin comment with 50% downside (30th June)

Having your history available is a pain isn’t it!

Doesn’t take much research to figure out your a very poor swing trader.

With 325 Million warrants available now @ .65p with the new arrivals 25 million, it’s just nonsense actually… they actually have around 20% more to add to the 4.15 billion shares in issue with the warrants and options available!!

And is the “fear” alleviated? Why have they now said February (possibly) for negotiations to be concluded?……and what will Mercuria be getting from this deal? They are making £600k a month minimum from the hedge!

And far from production and gas prices being irrelevant, they are fundamental!!!!

The CPR gave an average 7mmscf production figure for this year, and gas prices fell into the mid 0.5 range last summer, its only.86p a therm now despite rising over 10% this week.

“All upside”……..pull the other one!

Bubbles.

Why would I reply regarding an out of date section on the website?

Far more up to date information regarding the planed GAS-storage has been RNS’d (see the 17th October one)

“along with potential for gas storage or CO2 injection “

C02 would be liquified so I’m sorry hits, not a gas as it says injected. Helium isn’t even on the radar yet so GAS it is!!

Fair point HITS

I would point out that the industry expert has less than a stellar record when telling us what’s happening in his opinion.

I will still take the Q&A and the CPR answers over an anonymous bulletin board expert. Especially with the history of the said poster!

Like all posts take with a pinch of salt.

Blimey Bubbles, they have said it’s gas storage “fact” ….Grow a pair and admit your mistaken.

Erm….i have the glasses on that quite clearly say it’s GAS storage!

Question 3 from the top.

“Thanks. In October we published a Competent Persons Report which gave the Saltfleetby field a valuation, including senior debt and hedging terms ,of £57m after all punitive UK taxes and at recent relatively weak gas prices. This valuation did not include the £6m of junior debt, but it equally excluded any value to be had from Brockham, Balcombe or Lidsey or any other projects such as the gas storage project. It is hard to understand how the doomsayers get down from £57m to zero of value in the share – even allowing for the junior debt.”

“Such as the GAS STORAGE PROJECT”

Bubbles.

I had a re-read of the Q&A from yesterday.

It appears that they don’t agree with your

“ Not posting to incite an argument, but it is very clear that Angus are NOT going to utilize SLBY for GAS storage,”…….. comment.

They confirmed that it’s a gas storage project in the 3rd from the top answer..

“ but it equally excluded any value to be had from o Brockha, Balcombe or Lidsey or any other projects such as the gas storage project.”

So as I said a £200 million price tag 15 years ago.

Amusing they assign value to the legacy assets. Millions need spending on each with highly doubtful outcomes. Brockham and Lidsey cost £100k for both when Angus took over! They are probably nothing more than De-comm liabilities, remember when they did that placing for just that reason?

Balcombe is a £1 million last throw at the Debunked Kimmeridge dream, all at Angus expense…to be fair they have to do it though.

Bubbles.

The figure I gave is from the document from the Secretary of State at the time. Yes it was for natural gas Storage. It would still cover a large portion of whatever storage they are looking into however.

If they are able to use the existing pipeline, yes that would save them around £8 Million in de-comm costs, but with the costs involved they will likely very much be the junior partner without raising substantial further funds.

If you have a NSTA website, there is some information regarding licensing for Carbon storage both on and offshore . I can’t recall seeing anything for Hydrogen, but I guess we are a decade off being at that point. Just a reminder that the license to extract petrochemicals expires in April 2027.

Erm….. So whoever answered those questions (as it doesn’t appear to be the CEO) should probably have taken time to actually read the CPR.

The £57 million is of course based on the forward price of gas on the published date.

Uk NBP Natural gas futures are .77.840 pence a therm as I type for February ( traditionaly the most expensive month of the year being peak winter)

The CPR was based on figures of

2024 ……..128.3p per therm

2025………119.0 p per therm

2026………..98.1p per therm

In fact today’s figures are below all years quoted.

It should also bee noted that the annual accounts say that at today’s prices for Even February, Saltfleetby is considered a liability.

Just to add that the price tag for gas storage at Saltfleetby was £200 million plus 15 years ago.

You obviously haven’t done your research properly again JD!

The warrants can be converted @0.66 which is obviously going to hold any gain back. More importantly it’s who holds those warrants and the combined holding of the associated companies. What Aleph and Kemexon are upto in all this should be at the front of investors minds!

Have Kemexon thrown the towel in???? Expect a big sell of if so?…..are they still in the game and sitting just sitting and waiting?…..who knows.

Kemexon and Aleph must combined must surely qualify as acting in concert though!

Just to be clear also ,JD.

Your first paragraph is just plain made up.

Your second is also total cobblers…. And they haven’t got across the line yet.

The third is just ridiculous waffle.

The fourth is so full of inaccurate statements it’s embarrassing. Try reading the CPR. It gives you the figures. The water disposal costs are more than your figures this morning. You also failed to take into account that the price of gas has fallen dramatically, and that the CPR gives a flow rate for the whole of next year around what it was yesterday. That’s without whatever price for the gas the lender decides to dictate.

The last paragraph you just sound daft.

The 5 year timeframe is realistic. The lenders will do very well. The holders of the current 4.15 billion shares less so. They may make a few million a year to share between all of us, but make no mistake the BOD have already told us they are underpaid by industry standards. Expect half of any profit to disappear in that direction.

So now the pump and dump is finishing up.

Where exactly are Kemexion in the scheme of things? That’s an awful lot of shares,and apparently no seat at the party?

Ditto Alephs 300 Million warrants. They can be converted way below todays price, and what do you think Mr Forrest will do with his 10% should the deal actually be signed?