Member Info for WG818

Well.

The only person to be really happy with that, will be Mr Forrest!

To little detail as HIT,s points out.

If Mercuria are still getting their 8% override that’s equivalent to 21% interest at present…….on £20 million……and amortisation every quarter??

The only thing the “Lady of aim” has a history off is posting on twitter/x followed by being promoted by NeoGeo, followed by a ramping session! 71 posts today so far as if to prove my point.

Onetomany.

The fact you don’t know what I’m talking , is also the fact that you shouldn’t be posting if you have done so little research.

Onetomany

There are 300 million warrants available to convert at 25% below the 30 day average. That’s between 0.375 and 0.4 at present more than half your resistance rate!

Aleph, not Aleppo.

JD

“The simple fact is that Angus have to refinance their loans by early next year. If they don't do this then the company is in dire trouble, but if they do then all looks rosy for the future.”

That’s not entirely accurate. The 28th September RNS gives details on the remaining £6/7 million bridge loan

“ this facility can be further extended by three month periods but on future occasions only with the consent of Aleph Finance Limited “

So Aleppo have 300 million warrants exercisable @25% under the 30 day average and another £7 million odd they could possibly convert in late January.

Looks odds on to me that they will simply roll the agreement on by another 3 months with all the latest data available.

Gas prices considerably below the £1 per therm investment case supplied in the Q&A and only 7mmscf (20% lower) than when that RNS was delivered) following the new pressure regime recently introduced.

Also worth considering the reasons that they voted for all those new shares to possibly be issued in the recent EGM, and why kemexion have applied for that gas pipeline licence!

In reply to Zoolanders question earlier.

Natural gas has just dropped to 82 pence a therm and that is at peak time of year. That puts Saltfleetby into the liability category according to the Annual accounts!

Ditto the figures for yesterday are showing a steady 7mmsfc.

I should have a read of both the bridge loan RNS’s and figure out what is best for the interested parties who supplied them.

Hobsons choice as I said yesterday.

Bubbles. “At least have the decency “ mmm. Well I haven’t said they have hit critical pressure have I !

What I said is (in my opinion) and very much that in the CPR that they will get to that point long before October next year. They have instigated a new pressure regime (recommended in the CPR) as confirmed by the Q&A and the now fairly consistent daily flows are around 7mmscf, when the compressor packages aren’t playing up.

I haven’t presented anything as fact as you suggest!

My confidence that it will fall to the critical level is backed up by both graphs and expert opinion within the CPR and the fact that the new essential compressor package has been delayed from early next year until October, presumably because detailed information wasn’t available to order it as the critical bit of kit that could have given them the relevant information is /was broken!

I have criticised them for not having the compressor package all ready to go but after some research it requires detailed information to be built to the required specification.

Sorry not 12%the CPR (that’s actually a lot higher) This months answer in the Q&A.

Thanks for your comedy list Tony.

Why on earth would they go ahead with re-financing with the figures available??

Gas prices At peak winter prices are 12% lower than they list as being investable in the CPR! Flows down 20% to 7mmscf after the new pressure regime introduced. The pressure dropping to the critical 17.5 barg well before the new compressor package in October next year! 9 million in critical expenses next year!……Yea…..its nailed on isn’t it?!?!?

This has become self fulfilling as I warned

@0.5 p hose 300 million warrants could be converted @ 0.375 with the 25% discount on the 30 day Price.

The £6 million could then be converted at the same price more than taking them to well over 50% of the company…….that’s if they have any choice anyway! It looks to be Hobsons choice for them at present.

25 million needed at present by early 2025.

With gas prices just a few percent (at peak winder prices) above what the annual accounts list as making Saltfleetby as a liability, and the plant only producing 7mmscf a day a 20% drop since they started the new pressure regime, who would want the risk? Especially as they need to drill again into this tricky geological area.

So what is your explanation for

“we have seen some changes in the pressure regime in the plant”

I take your point that it’s largely not what they say that needs proper attention. But there is little doubt what this means surely?

I’ll take the advice from the certified expert in the CPR thanks Bubbles, again I point you to point 9 page 2 of the CPR.

Ditto 4 or 5 of the preceding points, and the drop of charts on pages 49,50,52 and 83.

If they carried on as they were without shutting in as the Wingas FDP suggested they would have hit that critical point already or some point in the next couple of months.

Yes apologies Bubbles, I meant SF7 obviously.

And they are quite obviously playing with that barg you mention to deal with it as the CPR makes clear.

So it seems I was correct in my thinking that they are following the advice in the CPR Bubbles? No mention of crud in the flow from SF4 as the problem! What they have said is…

“we have seen some changes in the pressure regime in the plant “

Basically we are getting close to that critical 17.5 barge and have turned the choke down as can be seen by the average daily production being 15/20 lower last month.

Both Generator packages playing up again (worrisome) Finally The September (published today)NSTA figures show a massive drop of in gas to pipeline figures just 6.97 MMscf/d . (7.8 in August and 8.62 in July)

The water figure % was down as a percentage of condensate however.

OMGG!!! A profit??? The had 300k in the bank after placing after and had to take that emergency £3 million bridge loan….remember that one before taking the £6 million bridge loan!!

Bubbles.

Fair point regarding the gas consumption by the compressors. Unfortunately as both the CPR and mr Herbert have made clear, the whole plant can’t handle more than it’s designed for! That’s 10Mmscf.

Actually I have never said anything of the sort! You have accused me of saying such things…..putting words in my mouth. It’s another standard tactic to try and discredit. What I just literally just said is they could be mitigating this by choking back!

Bubbles. Not really. I mean if they were able to produce at 10Mmscf without the temperature issue, don’t you think they would be now?

And just to add you were telling us all they could produce at 14mmscfat one point!

JD

Literally the only people who are claiming that this is “unrecoverable” and some kind of domesday are you and Bubbles. You sound remarkably similar by the way!

I have simply pointed out what the CPR figures and graphs tell us.

It would appear that they could very well be taking the advice in the CPR and choking all or some of the well’s back to increase to field lifetime. If they continue on the same tack, they will hit the 17.5 barg critical point anytime from late October 2023 up until March 2024 at the very latest.

The compressor engines are inside a steel container to comply with the noise regulations. They must pretty well cook inside there on a summer day. The power generator (the third engine)is right in the open, not shielded by the containers.

Not splitting hairs at all. The drop of rate should be calculated from the peak. If they could have promote during the summer months they obviously would have but we’re restricted.

The condy and water figures I have consistently pointed out have been wrong. If you add the condensate and waste water figures together you come close to the 160 barrels they claim. I have pointed out on several occasions the caveat the figure by including the word (liquids) in the figure.

Actually you also need to take into account that the plant would have been constrained in July and August, Due to the fact that the cooling of the compressors imposed a limit off 9mmscfd at air temperatures above 23 Deg c.