Member Info for WG818

Ok. So we will ignore your history then as it’s a little embarrassing as I’m sure you agree…..perhaps you can delete it again like you did as Push2when it tripsed you up?

I think the doomed term was one you used last week actually wasn’t it?

Anyway. I simply have a different expectation for the drop off from youselfs. If You deem to take this as some sort of Insult that’s your problem not mine. Again check your history to see who threw the first insult this morning.

JD .

I am of course the latter. As has been proven on many occasions and by BP himself actually, taking the advice of professionals on these BB can cost mug punters dearly……see my last post pointing out the””experienced expert “ change of hart in less than a week!

Bp

I was simply pointing out your opinion seems to change like the wind.

In the space of a week you have gone from

It’s imperative

““In my opinion the rate of pressure decline, or should I say resulting increasing liquids over time make it imperative for them to act on their 2024 field plans for booster compressor and velocity tubing in at least well A4.”

To don’t worry it’s just a bolt on!

“As for the requirement for the "booster" compressor, well if I were Angus I would be looking at production and string design, before I went down the "booster" compressor route, as the "booster" compressor is simply a bolt on option if they do little to nothing with current production well design.

Are you sure you’re not back in?

JD

Really? I would remind both of you that BP’S history is available for all to see. Like this one from last week.

“In my opinion the rate of pressure decline, or should I say resulting increasing liquids over time make it imperative for them to act on their 2024 field plans for booster compressor and velocity tubing in at least well A4.

It should be noted, that the "booster" compressor does NOT do anything for the wells, pressure decline, flow etc, all a "booster" compressor does is it sits first in line before the main compressors, and basically takes the lowering pressure produced gas from all 3 wells and boosts it up to a pressure that is above the main compressor thresholds.

Currently ONLY the velocity tubing is planned as a counter to the effects of liquids production and the related effects on surface pressure.

Some other posts again warning about the pressure drop and the consequences.

BP seems to swing with the position he holds. Yes we both have theories nothing more.

My theory is backed by the CPR and NSTA data.

BP’s theory is backed by a hunch. When you look back that hunch it falls down as the drop of started before the new connection was in place. Secondly it would seem odd for them to postpone it for so long if they thought the scenario BP thinks was likely.

They are both only speculation, but as I pointed out lead to the same ultimate conclusion of the drop off.

BP . You can take the data from the Wingas FDP as a basis of opinion regarding the field however.

The CPR is pretty clear on this.

Page 11,12 (Remaining uncertainty about reservoir quality and dynamic performance)

Point 2 seems confirmed by the NSTA figures. See then note 3. Then see note 6. Again confirmation by the NSTA figures. Note 7 confirmed. Note 8 interesting (we are just guessing really) Note 9 OMG we need the new compressor ASAP not October next year! Now they had said a couple of months ago that the new compressor was scheduled for the beginning of next year! Why has it been pushed back until October?

Page 49,50 and 85 give you an easy guide to follow on the pressure drop off.

Lastly if you read the Wingas FDP it gives figures for shut in periods they required until well end of life expectancy. SF4 didn’t have long to live according to those.

Bubble. You seem to be agreeing with me again! Your analysis of what I’m saying leads you to them choking back! Wouldn’t the drop in production figures result from this?

It was deemed viable on a cost of £2.5 million by Angus! What is it £50 million now?

The Russian federation (Wingas storage) decided it was unviable and looking at the actual cost to date proved correct in their sums!

Ooffy

The debentures were taken out to cover both parties positions I assume. Obviously Mercuria are the majority partner. I was just wondering if Kemexon would de included in this as they were presumably party in the loan when the debentures were placed on Angus?

An awful lot of other scenarios available also.

Apologies for the lack of Capitals. Must be a setting I missed.

Drop off dates worst case 2023, best 2024.

paddy

bubble has ****ged my thoughts off for about a year now. only pretty much on every occasion to arrive at the same conclusions in the end.

we still disagree (but hopefully in a more civilised way going forward) about a couple of things.

the recent production falls for example.

bubble thicks this is down to crap in the flow from sf7 and choke back.

i disagree slightly as the drop off started before they connected up properly to the plant.

my theory is that they are at or very near the critical 17.5 barg point. i did some graphs over the weekend and came up with a wost case scenario that this occurred around mid-october and a best case of mid feb. the two middle cases came in at early october and mid late december.

the third possibility i have seen is they are restricted now by the ea due to liquid tankers leaving site ( water and condensate)

i also disagree about the field being a fantastic success. the figures the company gave to re-connect were and are laughable. if gas was at the prices they did their sums on the project would have never been completed, and even now if gas falls back to more traditional levels is probably still going to be uneconomical……and no guarantee that those 2 new wells the are planning will be successful.

so no. not the same poster!….who was the good cop ?

Panicking Tony?

Far from it. I’m well up to speed on what’s happening. As for your company comment. Well anyone who takes anything told as gospel, likely correct, Or even probable, has been let down on every occasion I can think of.

The lenders have absolutely zero reason to forward them the money or even talk about until January! By that time according to the CPR the pressure drop off will be likely known if it hasn’t already hit the 17.5 critical barg by then. Actually looking at the reduced flows, they have possibly followed the advice given in the COR and choked them back already to extend the lifespan.

Actually thinking about it. If they are covered under the existing debentures Aleph hold over the company. They could withheld to January £6 million payment forcing a de-fault. Bang goes Mr Forrest’s £5.2 million and the £18 million due to Mercuria in that 8% royalty payment.

They literally hold all the cards here and will do whatever makes them the most money.

This couldn’t be any less of a level playing field for us mug punters!

Keep up Tony!

In theory if Aleph grant them Access to the 300 million warrants @ .66 p they are above or extremely close to the 30% threshold. If they convert the £6 million loan they go way above 50%.

Best guess they force a placing dropping the price the warrants can be converted and extend the bridge loayto fate until late August at which point they pick the rest of shares up for around 0.5p!

Ludwig has been a busy boy!!

Now why would Kemexon apply for a gas shipper license for transport by means of a pipeline license?

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-07/Kemexon%20UK%20Limited-%20Notice%20of%20application%20for%20a%20Gas%20Shipper%20Licence.

The plot thickens!!

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/search?keyword=kemexon

Courtesy of Kansas.

Mr Forrest is an interesting player in the Angus game.

He did the deal of the Century selling when he did.

After all he would have half the £9 million Bridge liabilities hanging over his head and half the £7.5 million still owing on the senior credit and half the £9 million essential costs for 2024. All to be paid for from a field that’s depleting so fast the will hit the highly significant 17.5 barg point at any time. The solution to this problem is only due for installation in October next year…..o and for good measure palmed off the £8 million d-comm cost on the 8 mile pipeline onto Angus.

Instead he is owed £5.2 million payable by early 2025 I believe. Not as good a deal as Mercuria got (but literally that turned out to be the worst in uk onshore history) but pretty spectacular!

If he, Knowe or Aleph decide to sell it’s going to drop to Ukog prices. I’m guessing he is more concerned about the £5.2 million he is owed at present. Dropping the price by selling probably isn’t in his interests.

Funny how 1 single compression package listed in the CPR actually now costs more than the whole than the original cost of the Saltfleetby upgrade like we were told £2.6 million. It’s not like mr Forrest wouldn’t have known that cost was laughable. More going on here than any mere PI has information on.

Multiple scenarios possible here.

Are the big holders friendly and trustworthy to each other! Are Kemexion covered under the debentures Aleph and partners hold over the company? Why do Knowe still hold those debentures for that unsecured CLN? Would kemexon actually want to take the substantial de-comm costs on? …….how about a farm in scenario instead?

Would it be better to refuse to extend the loan and shaft mr Forrest of his £5.2 million? All interesting possibilities that the big boys will be weighing up.

Non will benefit small pi,s however!

Dan

"Like I said, it's becoming apparent that there is a lid on this at 0.70, for whatever reason I don't know”

Possibly the 300 million warrants available to Aleph and Affiliate’s ( affiliates aka Kemexon) available @ 0.66p at present?

If they have to do another raise that price will fall to 25% below the 30 day moving average. The RNS gives details on this the floor was 0.4 p. That makes them convertible at 0.3 p and when added to those they already hold would just about take them above the 30%!!……if it doesn’t they have another 150 million warrants in their own name @1.50 to top up just in case!

I have said previously that the £6 million bridge RNS with the floor @ 0.4p could be a self fulfilling prophecy. It looks to be happening to me.

So you decided to start a new day with an equally pointless one then??

Why don’t you join in and tell us when you think the flow rate will hit the critical 17.5 Barg then?

I’m sure you would have done some of your own research bridgedog?

Patrick

You just used the Very tired tactic of belittling a poster for being wrong and don’t bother listening as they as they can’t get facts correct. It’s something I have become accustomed to on here.

If you’re not man enough to apologise for your foolish mistake we will leave it there.