The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Suck it up Susan - the SP is the only thing that matters in trading...it's a new low this year and a breach from the low 5s into the high 4s so worthy of note. I have no interest in kicking dogs dead or not - my only interest is making profit.
This fkir was up until recently a recovery play on the Irish economy. It is now a recovery play on the UK and sterling which in my view will continue to sink in the short and medium term.
Be very careful before you dive in here even at these seemingly low levels as this share is no longer what you may think it is.
I assumed that most readers here are familiar with the stock and the strategic move (PO widening banking channels) prior to the UK crashing out of Europe that has resulted in a greater exposure to sterling.
It was widely discussed on this forum at the time Cookie.
So are you telling me that as Fkir owner you are unaware of Bank of Irelands' s deal to widen the distribution channels
into banking for PO customers? You need to do a bit more diligence to keep up with this fkir.
Alternatively, keep your head in the sand and ignore the currency risk.
Yeah you are right but I was referring to its strategic error of opening up its distribution network with the Post Office a couple of years ago which has given rise to much greater exposure to sterling. Try to keep up Cookie.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-02/bill-black-deutsche-bank-crimes-could-trigger-next-global-crisis
For anyone interested
Hi Howth - I think the European banking market is reasonable efficient and todays price reflects that. It is hard to see the light in all the dark. The momentum since the start of the year has been a steady decline from Jan 8.16 to 5.55 today. The trend is your friend (unfortunately!).
The downside to Bkir is obviously on their strategic error entering the UK just before it crashed out of Europe. The ongoing devaluation of sterling, the uncertainty re soft, hard and no deal - looking at the scenarios I think the SP could be dragged lower over the next few months and could stagnate for a much longer periods as a result of the UK decision.
On the Irish side of the house, things are still stable but a no deal or hard brexit will have a negative impact 10-15% on agri business of which Bkir is also exposed. NIM growth has stagnated but apart from all of this the bank is well positioned to capitalise on any Irish growth prospects.
I think we now have some scenarios as to the Brexit impact which can give us a general perspective of what might happen.
Of additional concern are the wider macro risks such as:
1. DB credit fault - The bank still has a massive derivatives exposure of roughly 48 trillion euros - equivalent to more than 3x the GDP of the European Union. My understanding from speaking to someone who knows a lot more about this than I is that time has finally caught up with this beast - this is not a drill.
2. Italy
3. US markets continuing to pop
4. Trade wars US / China
etc
Bkir is unfortunately in a whole new world inmho. GL.
Thanks Ranger - that resonates with my own thoughts currently. I moved to cash at the start of the year on the basis of macro developments. Am tempted with a shorter term play if this goes to low 5s high 4s but I agree the backdrop is very pessimistic and it may be a case of sitting on cash well into next year.
Not so sure PGee. Firstly, consider Theresa fails to get the deal past HoC. She then resigns. That will lead to a leadership contest or a general election. Who wants the role? It is a posined chalice. None of the protagonists in the leadership circle for the Torys or Labour are calling for a Second vote. In fact, they are calling for a better deal. However the EU has said there will not be a better deal and time is running out anyway leaving me to believe a No deal is now most likely.
A no deal, hard exit brexit will bring UK, sterling and Irish stocks lower than where we are today. I expect SP to fall to low 5s as a result in the coming months as UK Government falls and No Deal hits home.
Additionally, the global macro backdrop of a large number of asset bubbles currently popping (US Tech, Italian Bank Debt, Australian property, China debt) will unfortunately make this one to remember.
https://twitter.com/gibbogibby1/status/1062783825816809473?s=20