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Thanks John. interesting points and agree FF is a broad church. It's funny how two people can look at the same thing and see something quite different though!
I have no fear of FF economic policies at all - it is firmly and largely right of centre despite occasional centrist soundbites and concessions whilst in opposition....
I guess it's all relative and it's a blend (not an absolute) but I would view Ireland as a moderately right of centre economy, Government and electorate for many years now for a plethora of reasons. I know the word "right" has a lot more skewed, negative connotations in recent times but am not referring to it from a social populist/right wing perspective at all.
Just my view and am glad people don't think the same as me!
Yes. As the two competitive "Republican" parties....both SF and FF do not want to legitimise each other but they absolutely would get into bed if it meant getting hands on power.
Am a bit surprised by your view on this one JohnMcClean - do you think FF wouldn't?
I know MM said so in 2018 but without getting into the politics of it, MM is a relatively weak leader with a relatively low power base within his own party to start with and is in a desperate situation as being the only FF leader not to reach Offig An Taoisigh. He only has one more chance to do so and I don't expect he will. SF are well on their way to centre now (even though many of their supporters don't realise it or choose to ignore it). SF's left wing economic identity was MMs main reason for previously objecting to SF. A coalition of the two with access to government would be marginally accepted by the majority of both sets of supporters. It would be a centre of right government with SF sacrificing 95% of it manifesto in return for political legitimacy which has to be their primary objective. It's all fair and well to be in opposition but Government is where the power is at and "for the sake of the country" (eyes to heaven) these guys would jump into bed and legitimise each other if it means power.
The numbers won't add up for them however is my view. FG will be returned as they haven't been great but I guess acceptable to most on the right of centre.
Internally, Ireland is politically a relatively stable country (despite frequent change in Governments) as we mainly exchange right of centres coalition governments with new faces every few years. The material political risk, in my mind, for fkir really just rests with US and EU policies on tax/investment and FDI.
Icarus - agree. I took a view in Dec 2018 that 2019 would be a risk off year and am still positioned accordingly.
I don't share your fear re political risk however for the following reason... I expect FG will be returned most likely barring any major political event. Both FF/SF are marginally losing grassroots mainly centred around leadership reasons is my read. SF strategically are moving (unofficially) towards the centre and then a bit further to broaden their base so I don't see them as a material risk to Birg at all. Ireland is a right of centre economy, government and electorate with a significant middle class vote and can't see any reason how/why that will change in short and medium - just my current read of it.
GLA.
Thanks Senator - I believe your analysis stacks up convincingly. The algos/pros are clear re European financials.
I don't believe we are near peak Brexit yet....so the current noise, despite seeming omnipresent and loud, may actually be relatively low to what is on our doorstep. In the meantime, we might see a little recovery but wait until end of sept with one month to go and there will likely be a huge step up in fear (hysteria) as both sides battle it out and the reality(or not) of potentially faltering supply chains resonates on the ground...most media channel globally will be focused on it 24hrs daily through October.
Therein lies potential opportunity if it gets hammered further.
Yes Nuri - I am a huge mug. Calling the bottom is only a game correct. Nothing more nothing less.
I'm happy you are happy......you have been buying in 6s, 5s, 4s and now 3s ...if it goes lower 2s you'll be on ecstatic overload!
Yes - Thanks Torquay!
Am aware of that - we shared a similar action re exiting to cash some time ago. I value his opinion so am interested to see where he is at (if anywhere) currently re a fkir entry play/range/timeline.
I know you appreciate that the research and analysis given to paying clients is completely different. However, some on here may not so its worth reiterating.
For example, a major Irish broker was telling all private clients to avoid Irish banks for the past 18 months while issuing free and published analysis pointing in the other direction.
Free advice is worth every penny you pay for it.
No. I won't.
- not an advisor.
- I wouldn't give free advice if I was.
- am firmly in Roubini's camp re C until I discover something that breaks that logic and position.
I have a cousin (US) who is a leader re digitising assets - platform for token issuers, broker-dealers and custody platforms and I hear some interesting positions both ways on it. Conversely, I also know a man whose son gambles on horses, who made a singular, once off, fluke trade (almost perfect entry/exit) on BTC and realised E3,5k into E3m which was life changing for him. He also left Wexford for Portugal for 4 years to avoid CGT. The only other person I know in C, lost more than 90% of his investment.
My gut feel is that c. 90% plus of participants will lose practically 100% of investments in C.
is about to be flipped.
Technology Companies are primed to enter. They will not be entering through the front door. The tech is ready and about 10 years ahead of the current market. 10 years in tech is about 2 human lifetimes. The reg barriers are dropping like felled trees. It is moving from amber to green. The term "Disruption" will be redefined.
A tsunami. A step change from buildings, people, infrastructure, accountants to mathematicians, technologists, engineers using Data and AI. The CTO is the new visionary. The largest financial revolution in the history of banking is knocking on the door.