Member Info for WetWater

Technically speaking, the final report has not even been issued. No one expects much to change from the draft report to the final but that is not a certainty. I don't think Falcon will issue any statement prior to Origin's comments since Origin is the operator. I don't think Origin is going to comment until we go through the upcoming comment period beginning next week and running through mid-February(12th?). IMO nothing is to be gained by Origin coming out with statements on the draft report at this point - best wait for all the i's to be dotted and t's to be crossed. We may gain some insight to any potential problems or concerns during the comment period. That would be the time Origin, Santos, etc. would make appeals for changes or clarification of any proposed regulation which might be problematic. You may want news to bolster the stock price - I think Origin (Falcon) will wait for the final report prior to making any news releases - just seems like the prudent/politically right thing to do. Lets see what the comment period brings for potential insight/tea leaf reading.

dprussky: You are not likely to hear anything out of Origin or Falcon prior to the release of the final report. That's why I recently posted that the next 6-8 weeks are going to be a testing time for Falcon owners. With no news, the overhang of the potential delay, and awaiting the final nod of CM Gunner we are not going to see much strength out of the share price. Over the next 1 1/2 to 2 months we are going to see people do just what your are doing - start pondering all the bad things that might be wrong with your investment - some will become nervous and sell out all or part of there holdings. Nothing has changed from a month ago when this decline begin. The RBC report wasn't what I or many people wanted to see - the more I think about it the more comfortable I get with their findings - its just they are assigning value on what Falcon has today - they state there is a lot of potential but that is not how/why this report was written. When you add a potential drilling delay of 1 year into the mix then one can understand why Falcon is priced where it is today. Until we get that final nod it is going to just be more of the same. After that nod we need the NT to let companies proceed with drilling/fracing under the current regs. If we are back to drilling this dry season then you will see a nice price increase IMO. If delayed then it is gut check time - the stock will drop and more patience will be required (sound familiar)

tda0904: Chuckle, Chuckle, Chuckle, Chuckle!! It must be like talking into a mirror for self validation :^)

tda0904: If I owned 'zero' shares in a company and felt as negative as BigOnes I would damn sure not continue to post and rant at people on this board - That poor guy must not have much of a life. If he believes all the BS he expounds why would he even consider buying back in at a lower price? Like I said - he is a conflicted investor/person. The upcoming 6-8 weeks are probably going to be a trying time for Falcon owners - no news on the horizon and lots of nervous investors sitting around waiting and imagining all the horrible things that might happen to this stock. I suspect that is why we have seen the downward drift of the stock price this last month. Hopefully it will find a bottom around here. I look for a pop in the stock when the government officially lifts the ban. Next we will need to see what if any delays are put in place for new regs. If no delay then we are back to drilling in 2018 - If we get delayed then I look for the stock to go sub .20 which likely would be a good entry point for those still acquiring stock - a 2019 drilling date with the ban lifted would be worth a highly discounted sub .20 price - Heck, it is worth today's price we had that official lifting of the ban.

Wow - what brought that rant on! I would guess a bottle or two of something. If I may pull a point out of a recent post of yours - at your .19 cent target price Falcon turns into a good buy?? The way the stock keeps drifting lower you are going to be a proud buyer of FOLGF before you know it - will you be a happy camper at that point? - I think it safe to say you will not. Seriously, why would you even consider buying more Falcon? Why do you continue to hold on to what you have? Doesn't make sense to me BigOnes - you must be one seriously conflicted investor. I suspect Origin wished they had talked to you before they doubled down on the Beetaloo - you could have saved them a boatload of money - imagine the foolishness of Origin, Santos, Panagea thinking they can actually discover/develop a shale gas field - out in the middle of nowhere never-the-less. For a while I thought I might get some type of reasonable dialog going with you. Sorry but I have come to the conclusion its just not worth my effort to respond to your constantly negative and many-times nonsensical BS. Take care of yourself.

It takes a major or large independent oil company to be able to afford to participate a shale oil play. The shale game takes huge sums of money to lease up land ahead of drilling - when you consider that these horizontal wells run 2+mile laterals in various directions, it takes millions upon millions of dollars just to acquire the land leases (avg $10,000 - $15,000/acre) - in addition here in the Permian Basin companies are giving 25% royalty on top of the huge up front bonuses. Lots of up front expenses and lease burden but they can't seem to drill wells fast enough - saw in the local paper yesterday that 400 rigs are running in the Basin so the economics obviously work. These lease rates are for oil production which on average generate greater potential revenue so the economics can support these type of expenses. For our gas based Beetaloo Basin the economics will be somewhat less but then gas is nearly 3X the price as here in the state. We saw in the Davy report that the average lease rates were for the Marcellus gas field (as a proxy) is $10,500/acre plus I would imagine 18%-20% royalty. I don't have a good grasp on the total royalty burden in the NT but I am thinking it may be 10%(?) What I am getting at is the economics look very reasonable for a company paying Falcon $5,000 - $10,000 and acre and having to only carry a 10% royalty. Warning - Pipe Dream!! - $7500/acre for 50% of the Beetaloo acreage equals about $17 billion dollars and that doesn't include any condensate or potential oil. Do I hold out for $17/share - no but it sure makes my $3/share look more reasonable and RBC's .30/share look very undervalued even at this early stage. What we need now is for the NTG to give us the favorable nod and let Origin get back to drilling this year. If we get put off another year then BigOnes and I will both be buying shares at his .19 target. That would be frustrating but it would be one hell of a buy!

Periwinkle: You and I don't know what the overall social impact will be for the NT but the Beetaloo concession will see little impact as there aren't too many souls in this sparsely populated area to disrupt Falcon has indicated this social report is basically a non-event for their concession and that the current draft pretty much told them everything they needed to know.. Someone might correct me, but I have always thought the economic and social impact studies were an afterthought and not the original charge of the inquiry panel. If that is correct then these reports are probably given lower priority by the panel whose main concern was how to safely proceed/regulate fracing. One might expect that the report could be issued early but then one would likely only be disappointed. If I put my optimistic glasses on, I could see where the Chief Minister might want to get ahead of his problematic March (?) party convention - side stepping the Labor party's anti-fracing element. This was the original scheduling so maybe he tries to get ahead of this conflict. When I say issued early I don't expect anything would happen until after the final rounds of hearings are held February 5th - 12th. Also as reported in the Community Update #26, community forums will be held January 29th - February 16th. So early might be late February or early March - IMO we still have a couple of months to wait.

Bigones - Oh My! I don't know whether I or Marshmill should have hurt feelings - seems as in many of your post you don't seem to make the details very clear. So I won't bother answering you in the future if I am on ignore, please let me know to whom your recent post was directed. Maybe it was directed at both of us in which case Marshmill and I will just have to console each other LOL! 1) You're right - politicians don't tend to commit suicide very often (politically at least). The general business and industry of the NT, being in tune with the current poor economic conditions in the NT, will see that CM Gunner never survives another election if he sits on him thumbs and lets the NT economic health continue to decline. If they don't push him off the proverbial cliff then the Feds will be happy to give a little shove themselves by jerking the welfare rug out from under him. He sees the writing on the wall and he is not going to let extreme left element of his party assist in his demise. 2) Funny but we must read different papers. I recently read a whether well written unbiased article in The Australian that said that the Aboriginal People, much to your dismay, were pretty well split on supporting/opposing fracing - the paper said many tribes see the benefits that fracing will bring to their communities. You need to be careful about overgeneralizing an article your read with an out right aboriginal NO!. You know as well as I that the media tends to overstate for the sake of generating buzz and conflict - great for readership - not so great for actual facts. 3) No idea of what you mean about the 2-3 year water thing being done by who?? I have been told that the 2-3 year study will not be a factor for Origin/ Beetaloo - sorry but I can't reveal the source - you can take it or leave it but I assure you its more than just my opinion. 4) Polls can mean something but it really depends on whom conducts it and how the polling questions are presented. We saw the recent poll in the NT News(?) that we on this board were manipulating along with the LTG crowd - that might be an extreme example but as they say here in the states - you can make a poll say anything you want. 5) Oh boy - sign me up on that promotional poster list - maybe I could make a few extra bucks to buy more Falcon stock. You know, some shorts pay posters to distribute BS and crap about companies..............does that shoe fit? Please let me know if I am your new ignoree - that way I will be less compelled to spend time trying to answer all your negative diatribe. We can both put each other on ignore and live peacefully in our own little world of bliss :) !!

Bigones - hey guy - good to know you are still with us in 2018. We are pretty optimistic kool-aid drinking group and you provide us some needed ballast. 1) The NT government isn�t going to say positive things, acknowledge or praise fracing until the final report is issued - where have you been the last few months? Even when the report is issued IMO it will not be a hallelujah moment for fracing. There will be all the proposed new regulations, blackout areas, and cautionary statements - so you will still have lots of doom and gloom to pontificate about. But at the end of the day the report will green light fracing and Gunner and group will give a positive nod just as they have promised on multiple occasions. Also, don�t forget that once the go ahead is given it can�t be challenged in the courts. 2) Polls are polls - we saw an example of that recently on this board. The papers have said some of the polls they follow show a 50/50 split - maybe you just need to look a little harder. Big business and such have made it very clear they support fracing - many of those that don�t support fracing admit it is necessary for the health of the economy. 3) I will admit that you may be right about dragging out. RBC said we could be looking at a 2019 drilling program - then in the next breath they said they had heard it proposed to let limited drilling/fracing continue under the existing regulations. That�s a toss up but I once again think big business and industry plus the pressure of the Feds will let us see drilling activity in 2018 - got my fingers and toes crossed on that one. 4) I have pretty much heard it from the horses mouth that the 2-3 year water study will not effect Origin. Whether that means Origin anticipated this study and it is already underway or it has already been completed I don�t know - I do know that the inquiry report stated that the subsurface water in the Beetaloo is the most highly understood/studied subsurface water resource in the NT. It hasn�t been clarified but the study may be another requirement prior to moving to the production phase of a project which wouldn�t effect Falcon. We will see what 2018 brings - You and I will just have to wait and see whose crystal ball is clearer. I hope I am right and I�m sure that would please you also - like you said - same goal just a different path. If you�re right I guess I�ll be the proud owner of more cheap stock! This project happens - IMO it is now just down to timing.

Bigones - If Falcon goes below .20 cents I will be all over it - especially if it is because the drilling program gets put off until 2019. I wouldn't look forward to the additional delay but below.20 cents would be a deal I could't pass up - all else being equal.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all you guys - even Bigones and Vile :^) I received my Christmas present early this year with the positive inquiry panel final draft report - heaven knows I'm thankful for that gift. Now it is back to being patient for the next three months waiting to get the final government nod, a determination regarding regulations as to when Origin can proceed with drilling/proving commerciality. May all our wishes for Falcon in 2018 come true - except Bigones wish for below .20 cents LOL!

I guess anything is possible but I suspect it is a little too early for selling off the current contingent resources. Origin is still needing to prove up more additional acreage before proving the Beetaloo to be a commercial discovery. We also have the question of the Valkerri 'C' shale and the Kyalla - IMO those need to be explored before you can value/sale those assets. As Close said, the Kyalla could be the primary target of the Beetaloo and being shallower with condensate would go a long way towards claiming commerciality. That 6.6tcf of contingent resources on those 1968 square km might grow to 10 - 12 tcf if the Velkerri 'C' test out and possibly more if the Kyalla is found in that part of the acreage. I am betting that the Beetaloo will eventually be split up in several ways - its far too much acreage for any one company to realistically develop. As the RBC report stated, their are Chinese companies which might seek Falcon's interest along with Santos/Inpex. RBC also predicts that Origin will be reducing its exposure in the Beetaloo. It might open up more options at a better price if Origin can prove up additional contingent resources to package. I really don't think anything happens prior to the additional 5 wells being drilled. I'm just guessing on all this - anyone's guess is as good as mine - it will be interesting to see how it plays out..

Like Silverback said - not enough for a leak - good enough for a tree shake. Possibly it is someone wanting to unload some shares based on our glowing RBC report and it spooked the stock. We have seen lately that it doesn't take much to drive this stock down - what we need is something to drive it up LOL! The NT government closed down for the Holidays 12/15 so it wouldn't likely be anything from them. I think you just sit tight and hold on. I just heard from an individual who is pretty close to this stock - he said he has seen no news nor any rumors of news. Enjoy the ride!

Please make it 80,000 shares :) Origin on the verge of bankruptcy and they sell off producing assets to acquire undeveloped property and add to their problems by acquiring Sasol's interest and carry. The largest integrated energy producer in Australia going down the drain - oh my! Please sell at market before the sky falls.

Bigones - RBC Key Question: How ambitious will JV partner and operator Origin be in appraising the Beetaloo acreage?? RBC Answer: Origin Energy is on record as indicating it is looking to bring more gas to market and has specifically mentioned the Beetaloo as one of the sources of gas it is looking to develop. Origin had a clear opportunity to vend its Beetaloo position into the Lattice group of assets it recently sold to Beach Energy; however, it elected to retain the asset along with its pre-development Ironbark CBM play and the Browse Basin gas discoveries. In a further sign of support, earlier this year Origin acquired Sasol's 35% stake in the JV to increase its overall interest in the Beetaloo to 70% while also assuming Sasol's 35% share of the Falcon carry. You seem to have all kind of questions and concerns that the Beetaloo will never be a commercial.play. I am sure Origin has a lot more faith, information, knowledge regarding the project than you will ever have and my bet (even though I don't know the answers to all your multitude of question/concerns) is that Origin will continue to complete the appraisal wells to prove up the Beetaloo's commerciality. It just amazes me that you continue to hold stock in this concession yet all you want to expound is BS about everything that can/will go wrong. You should have sold all your stock at .30/.31 and then you could buy back many more shares at .10 or .15 or whatever target you are putting on this stock - But then why would you even want to buy back in?? You and I don't need all the facts - we are stock investors - not Origin engineers - you forget your place in this investment. Next time the stock moves up don't miss the exit.

Bigones - I suspect that Origin already has a lot of those answers. Origin elected to take out Sasols 35% after the Amungee NW - 1H well was tested. We all know that the lateral was short and he casing was restricted - Origin seem pretty happy with flow over the test period. We also know that exploratory wells are far more expensive to drill than development wells. A lot of the unknowns you want to throw out are not unknown at all (Maint schedules, taxes, royalties, etc.). You may not know the answer to many of these questions but I damn sure bet Origin has those answers. I get that you need to throw crap at this project to try to get the price down of the stock down but do you need to be so obvious LOL!!

Giovanni - 75p may be what Falcon’s 30% is worth but that needs to be heavily discounted because its going to take lots of drilling ($$$) to get it out of the ground.