Member Info for WetWater

Also regarding sale - Will there be Canadian taxes to pay on the distribution. If so, would those of us in the US be better off selling at the market price prior to the official liquidation. I hold the majority of my shares in a tax free entity and would like to avoid taxes if possible. I realize I would miss the distribution of the new stock but that might be worth it if Canadian taxes are avoided.

Thanks Keithdik. It is nice to see this TED speaker deal with the facts of fracking rather than the emotion. IMO, the Inquiry panel came to the same conclusions - Don't give fracing a green light nor a red light but a yellow light to proceed with caution. Frac(k)ing is safe as long as the necessary precautions and regulations are in place.

I predict the fix is in on the moratorium being lifted. Gunner has been optimistic that he is going to produce an 8-0 vote. I also have found it interesting how quite the Feds have been the last few months. I think it is understood that the NT will be lifting the ban - who knows, the Feds might restore the cut GST in return to fill in the budget gap until the commercial gas royalty starts flowing into the NT's coffers. It's just too big for the NT, not to mention Canberra, for it not to happen. Here is to hoping our leaked April 3rd date holds.

I am looking forward to the day when we can turn our focus/comments away from the lifting of the moratorium and instead to discussions such as newtofo, Origin789 and Martyw89 have offered. With the Velkerri C and Lower Kyalla shales still untested and unknown there is still lots of potential upsides for Falcon which already has contingent reserves of 1.85 TCF. As our CEO pointed out, the 1.85TCF is based on less than 2000 square km - roughly 13% of the areal extent of our concession and then only includes the Velkerri B shale. What could be the end price of Falcon - I don't have a guess - I have always felt my $2.50 - $3.00 usd was a conservative and achievable target. but there's not much analysis behind those figures. As newtofo said - its just going to take patience to let things play out. I am looking forward to the next 2-3 years - they should prove interesting and rewarding. Now back to reality and hoping we can get the silly moratorium lifted!

I think it is becoming clearer that not only Origin but Santos and Pangaea are going to miss the 2018 dry season. I suspect Gary Higgins would have fit in nicely on this board - as I have said, I should have been an ever optimistic geologist LOL! We are in good hands with Origin's approach to lay an agressive action plan in the remaining 12 months for the 2019 dry season - Hope they hit the ground running! Pressure mounting on Gunner Government fracking decision GARY SHIPWAY, NT News March 29, 2018 9:00am PRESSURE is mounting on the Gunner Government to make a speedy decision on whether fracking will go-ahead in the Northern Territory. NT Property Council executive director Ruth Palmer said she believed the Gunner Government would make a decision next week. �We believe that with appropriate and manageable oversight, onshore hydraulic fracturing is an industry that the Territory must be allowed to develop,� she said. �The jobs and economic growth prospects associated with an onshore gas industry are undeniable and is a once in a generation opportunity. �We believe that the Government must act on science and reason, not emotion and remove the moratorium and allow exploration to proceed. The science supports the development of an onshore gas industry that satisfies our communities� high expectations and now is the time for government to allow this to happen.� The Chamber of Commerce NT has ramped up its support for fracking, taking out full- page newspaper advertisements. The advertisements, authorised by the Chamber�s chief executive Greg Bicknell and the Darwin Major Business Group chairman Ian Kew, said the fracking inquiry clearly said all the risks associated with the practice were manageable. �As Territorians, we would not support any industry that would harm our environment,� the ads reads. �Backed by science and strong government regulations, this industry has the potential to reap considerable prosperity for all Territorians over future generations.� Opposition Leader Gary Higgins drew fire from the Territory Environment Minister Lauren Moss for saying that on the back of a 20-month delay, he would expect that exploration activity would commence this Dry season. �We would be concerned if the NT government did anything to the contrary,� he said. Ms Moss said calls from Mr Higgins to rush to approve fracking were irresponsible and would put the Territory environment at risk.

I was told by a good Falcon source that if it is not 8-0 the Feds might/could come in and make a decision. It was told in a manner that made me believe that it was a very possible outcome on a split vote. What happens if the vote is 0-8 against lifting the ban - I don't understand the politics but maybe that makes Fed intervention harder - just guessing. I suspect there is something important about having a unanimous vote for Gunner and Falcon to both be focused on the 8-0 vote. I found it interesting that Gunner would not rule out Fed intervention. He said it hadn't been threatened/mentioned but that he felt it was a possibility. Maybe Turnbull has made it clear in other ways that lifting the ban is good for all of Australia and it needs to happen one way or the other. Don't forget the previous cut to GST after the moratorium and the threat to cut GST even more is the ban is not lifted. The NT is not on good financial footing as it is - I just can't foresee the moratorium not being lifted in the next month or two - Of course just my opinion.

Newtofo - I recall the Origin's drilling plans recently released to show 2-4 well in both 2019 and 2020. For them to show up to 4 wells tells me they must have the capacity and possible plans to drill more than 2 wells a dry season. I think this is important in that Origin has 5 wells remaining in the farm-out agreement. This could put them on pace to complete their farm-out obligations in 2020 at which point Falcon can better shop the acreage and work on getting it sold (for big bucks I hope!!).

Thanks Marshmill - I have been told through a pretty reliable source that Falcon indicated the Feds quite possibly would/could intervene is it was not an 8-0 vote. Sounds like it 8-0 might be for more than just an unanimous appearance.

I have seen/heard that Gunner's cabinet vote to lift the moratorium will require an 8-0 vote. If not unanimous, then the Feds could/might intervene. I had read where Gunner was predicting an 8-0 vote to lift or stay the moratorium but that comment went over my head - I just thought he was predicting they would be united in their vote - it appears that there might be repercussions from the Fed if not 8-0. Any of you guys familiar with this requirement of this vote? Didn't someone comment that there was one cabinet member (female) that could be a problem for a unanimous vote?

APPEA poll finds the fracking ban would gain Labor Party votes - The Greenie poll finds leaving the ban in place would be the vote gainer. I think Gunner and company should take the road that leads to more jobs, more money and keeps the Feds off their back. Holding your finger in the wind to gauge what to do politically isn't a proper way to govern IMO - growth and prosperity is the better long term vote getter. Frack ban would win votes, poll shows HAYLEY SORENSEN, NT News March 28, 2018 9:00am Subscriber only KEEPING its fracking moratorium in place would likely be a vote-winner for the Labor Government � a small phone poll of 615 people has shown. Policy think tank and anti-frackers the Australia Institute was behind the ReachTel survey, which started just hours after the fracking inquiry�s final report was handed to the Labor Government by chairwoman Justice Rachel Pepper. The institute has lobbied the Labor Government to maintain its fracking moratorium. A week before the final fracking report was released, it delivered Labor a report using CSIRO data which showed Darwin would become unliveable �without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions�. At the time, institute adviser Mark Ogge said it would be �irresponsible� for fracking to go ahead in the NT. The robopoll showed 42 per cent of surveyed Solomon residents would be more likely to vote for a pro-ban politician while 32 per cent said they would be less likely to vote for them. The remainder said their vote would be unchanged. About 53 per cent of respondents said they supported the ban staying in place, while 38 per cent said it should be lifted. The remainder were undecided. Those results contradict an earlier poll conducted by Crosby Textor on behalf of gas industry lobby group APPEA, which showed 48 per cent of Darwin respondents were in favour of lifting the ban while 38 per cent were opposed. The final fracking report gave 135 recommendations, which Justice Pepper said must be implemented in full to mitigate the risks associated with fracking. The ReachTel poll showed 58 per cent of respondents didn�t trust the NT Government or gas companies to implement and enforce those recommendations. Speaking on Mix104.9 yesterday, Mr Gunner warned the Federal Government to butt out of the decision. Mr Gunner said there was a danger the Commonwealth would intervene should Labor decide to maintain the ban. �Never trust an Australian Government that�s feeling political heat. The NT should always be worried when an Australian Government is in that position,� he said. Opposition Leader Gary Higgins said Labor should have made a decision the day the final report was released. Mr Gunner�s reluctance to pull the fracking trigger was a sign he was wrestling internal division in his own party over whether to lift the ban, he said.

Do you view the glass as half full or half empty? I took Gunner's statements to be appropriate at this point. Whether he takes days, weeks or, IMO not likely, months I think Gunner still has the best interest of NT jobs and economy at heart. This is still a pretty controversial decision and I suspect he wants to get it right. While I feel pretty optimistic for the Beetaloo Sub Basin, Gunner and company are going to be giving some people/companies the thumbs down (tightly prescribed areas). For some to say this is going to lead to years of delay is equivalent to crying the sky if falling.. ....Mr Gunner acknowledged the need to give certainty to both gas companies and anti-fracking groups, but said he wouldn�t set an �artificial timeline� on when his Government would make a final decision on whether to ban fracking. �We�re not going to rush this and stuff this,� he said. However, Mr Gunner said he wanted a decision made �as soon as possible�. He and his Labor caucus colleagues received a four-hour briefing from members of the expert panel yesterday. The final decision will be made by unanimous vote by the eight-member Cabinet.....

The report is hard to digest and full of "That prior to the grant of any further exploration approvals...." It sounds pretty ominous until you get to the end and you have a statement : It is the Panel�s view that certain recommendations must be implemented before any further drilling or hydraulic fracturing takes place in the NT. Therefore, prior to granting any further exploration approvals, the Government must implement the key recommendations listed in Table 16.1. That is where the table posted below come in. IMO, on the surface the restrictions prior to proceeding with fracking in the NT do not seem as onerous as the rest of the summary with all the additional restrictions. Obviously there will be some hurdles to jump prior to exploration startup - how big are these hurdles - I don't know. Many of the restrictions may be standard operating procedure but some mention government approval/regulation. Gunner does not have to accept anything in the report as it stands - these are all recommendations made by the panel. The next move will be in the hands of CM Gunner. I guess I have been eagerly waiting for this report to come out and at the end of the quick first read I don't know exactly what it all means time-wise or expense wise. We will have to wait for responses from those in the industry (APPEA, etc.) to give us guidance. Origin mentioned to the panel that they would have to see how some of the recommendations were worded before they offered changes - that leads me to believe that he negotiations/fine tuning are about to begin.

10.2 Prohibition on all exploration and production activity within 2 km of any habitable dwelling. 11.1 Existence of an Authority Certificate. 14.4 �No go zones� declared. 14.15 The community must be given an opportunity to comment upon all draft environmental management plans submitted to the Government for approval. 14.16 Requirement that all reports and notices on environmental incidents are publicly disclosed. 14.18 Enforceable codes of practice be mandated for drilling and hydraulic fracturing activites. 14.19 Cumulative impacts of petroleum and other activities in the region must be considered by a decision-maker. 14.23 Open standing for judicial review of decisions made under the Petroleum Act and Petroleum Environment Regulations. 14.26 A monitoring and compliance strategy must be developed and implemented. 14.27 A whistleblower hotline must be established and any reports to it must be immediately investigated. 14.34 There must be a clear separation between the agencies responsible for environmental and promotional approvals. Recommendation 16.1 That the Government implements all of the recommendations in this Report. Recommendation 16.2 That an implementation framework including details of who, when and how each of the recommendations will be implemented, be completed within three months from any lifting of the moratorium. Recommendation 16.3 That a centralised, well-resourced, experienced and skilled Implementation Unit be established immediately within the Department of Chief Minister to coordinate the development of the implementation framework. Recommendation 16.4 That a Community and Onshore Shale Gas Industry and Business Reference Group be established to provide feedback to Government on the development of an implementation framework, and its subsequent execution, if the Government lifts the moratorium.

It is the Panel�s view that certain recommendations must be implemented before any further drilling or hydraulic fracturing takes place in the NT. Therefore, prior to granting any further exploration approvals, the Government must implement the key recommendations listed in Table 16.1. Table 16.1: Key recommendations that must be implemented prior to any further exploration approvals being granted. Recommendation Description 5.1 Development and implementation of a code of practice for the decommissioning of onshore shale gas wells. 5.3 Development and implementation of a code of practice to ensure the integrity of onshore shale gas wells. 5.4 Well integrity management systems and plans mandated for all onshore shale gas wells to be hydraulically fractured. 5.5 and 7.12 Development of a wastewater management framework, including an auditable system for tracking movements of wastewater. 7.1 Gas companies must have a water extraction licence under the Water Act to extract water for hydraulic fracturing. 7.6 Prohibition on the use of surface water for hydraulic fracturing. 7.8 Prohibition on the installation of groundwater extraction bores to supply water for hydraulic fracturing within 1 km of an existing or proposed domestic or stock water supply bore. 7.9 Prohibition on the reinjection of wastewater into deep aquifers and conventional reservoirs. 7.10 Mandatory disclosure of all chemicals (including metals, salts and NORMs) in hydraulic fracturing fluids, flowback and produced water. 7.11. and 713 Petroleum wells be constructed to at least Category 9 or equivalent. Prohibition on petroleum wells being drilled within 1 km of an existing or proposed groundwater supply bore. Groundwater must be monitored using multilevel monitoring bores. 7.17 Prohibition on the discharge of treated or untreated wastewater into waterways. 8.2 Completion of a baseline weed assessment in all areas of the exploration permit accessed by a gas company. 8.3 Gas companies must have a dedicated weeds officer. 8.4 Gas companies must have an approved weed management plan in place. 9.2 Development and implementation of a code of practice for the ongoing monitoring of methane from shale gas wells. 9.3 Monitoring of methane concentrations for a six month period. 9.5 and 9.6 Requirement for ongoing methane monitoring and reporting cont.

Haven't read yet but here is the link. https://frackinginquiry.nt.gov.au/inquiry-reports?a=494327

Anti-Frackers expect report to be handed over to govt today. Northern Territory Territory anti-frackers ramp up efforts HAYLEY SORENSEN, NT News 44 minutes ago NORTHERN Territory anti-frackers are still optimistic the controversial practice will be banned in the NT, as the Government�s decision deadline looms. The final report of the independent inquiry into fracking is expected to be handed to the Government today. A final decision on whether to allow fracking to go ahead will likely be made early next week. Anti-frackers stepped up their efforts last week, staging protests inside and out of Parliament. Frack Free NT spokeswoman Pauline Cass said a number of petitions, with about 5000 total signatories, had been handed to Territory MLAs. �The fracking inquiry sought the views of people all across the Territory and overwhelmingly, the majority of participants were strongly against fracking, so we�re optimistic that would be included in the report,� Ms Cass said. The fracking panel�s 855-page draft report, released in December, gave strong indications that fracking would be allowed to proceed � albeit with a host of conditions designed to minimise risks to health and environment. At the time, inquiry chairwoman Justice Rachel Pepper said the 120 recommendations made by the draft report would mitigate the risks associated with fracking to �acceptable levels�. Since that draft report was released, the inquiry has held public hearings across the Territory, including in Darwin, Katherine, Alice Springs, Tennant Creek, Yirrkala, Nhulunbuy, Gapuwiyak, Borroloola, Hermannsburg, Ngukurr, Mataranka and Yuendumu. Even if the Government does give fracking the green light, it will take up to three years for onshore gas production to begin in earnest in the NT. The draft report recommended �strategic regional environmental and baseline assessments� be completed before production licences are granted. The work needed for those assessments � which will include groundwater modelling � is expected to take two to three years to complete. Modelling from different consultancy firms have returned wildly different estimates of how much revenue fracking will bring to the Territory, from just $29 million each year to $460 million each year.

I may stand corrected, but wasn't it published somewhere that any decision by the NT government can not be challenged in the court system. I'm thinking a government decision is final - possibly any challenges has to come back through the government itself. That way activist groups can't continually delay a decision passed down by the go9vernment. I drawing this somewhere from the deep deep recesses of my mind so I coulld be wrong.

OK. April 3rd was the date I heard for Gunner's decision. Interesting that the 3rd is the date mentioned by the LTG people - I assure you LTG and I are not using the same source!! If what I hear is correct, we will all be pleased with the outcome of the next couple of weeks. BigOnes, do yourself a favor and buy some shares of the bird - just as a little insurance if nothing else. You can always average up or down at a later date.

Can someone help me out with a date please. Was April 3rd the first day the NT parliament is back in session - I have seen that date somewhere before - possibly in an NT article? Thanks

I predict that either Scargs or BigOnes will be in for a round of free drinks. I also predict that the final report will be released with no significant changes from the final draft report. While my crystal ball is clear I will also predict that CM Gunner will be moving with haste to officially lift the ban on April 3rd or 4th and that the NT will allow exploratory/appraisal drilling to proceed under the existing regulations. My final prediction is that we will probably be watching, from the sidelines, while Santos and Panagea drill exploratory wells in 2018 while Origin gears up for a busy and aggressive 2019 drilling program. While I predict that BigOnes might possibly be the winner of a round of drinks, I will also predict that BigOnes is going to be left at the station holding an empty ticket. Kind of ironic isn't it! OK - I am out of predictions. Now let's see how good my clairvoyance skills are - enjoy your weekend :-)