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Origin789 - I caught the end of that rebuttal by Origin and then the panels request that LTG come forward and clarify their statement in light of Dr Close' clarification of the deformed casing. IMO the panel was irritated in LTG's accusation of the panel and Origin. Naomi seemed a little sheepish in her reply - she said LTG would reconsider its erroneous statements based on Origins clarification. I wonder is the weakness in the stock might be a result of APPEA submission. IMO there was a little bit of contention between the panel and APPEA on whether: 1) Exploration wells should be allowed to proceed under the current regulations (and without groundwater studies) and at what point Exploration becomes Development - if say a total of 50-60 exploration wells in the Beetaloo Sub Basin might have a material effect on the groundwater prior to a baseline groundwater study being performed. 2) Whether to allow exploration wells to proceed under the current regulatory body (Mines) rather than waiting for the newly proposed oil & gas regulatory body to be set up and established. It was APPEAs position that many of the presenters were requesting a delay for the two above points just for the sake of delay. APPEA said that regulatory approval was needed for each current exploratory well and that that was sufficient to allow the industry to proceed while the government set up its new environmental oversight agency/regulations. In fact, the APPEA said that allowing the wells to proceed while new regulations were developed was the logical and best way to establish new controls and standards based on actual filed experience. APPEA also told the panel that South Australia's regulatory body was a much better setup than that proposed by the panel though the APPEA would make all attempts to work under the panel's proposal. The discussion seemed to indicate that the panel at least is considering changing the status of exploration wells and making them wait for groundwater studies and/or wait for the new regulations/bodies to be set up prior to permitting. If that happens then the project would be put off for another year. IMO the panel, in an attempt to be fair to all parties, is entertaining many of the submitters request to delay to insure that the groundwater is not damaged - the APPEA rightly pointed out that a delay just for the sake of delay puts off economic benefits to the NT by another year basically to just appease the anti frackers. It was the first indication I had that our scientific panel was drifting off into the weeds of fear and emotion which was not their charge. As I say, maybe they are just trying to appear fair to all submitters by considering all options.

And while you are playing with numbers remember that 1.94tcf is only for about 12%-13% of the areal extent of the concession and then only include the Velkerri 'B' shale. Multiply the areal extent by about 3X or 4X and add the Velkerri 'C' plus the potential Kyalla shale and the numbers get potentially huge - realistically though I think those numbers will have to be heavily discounted as 5 additional wells can only prove up so much acreage of multiple pay zones. IMO, Falcon's 30% of the Beetaloo will be large enough to get very exciting. Origin just needs to get back to drilling.

LTG w/Naomi begins in about an hour - Woo Hoo!!! Not planning to watch - I think I have more important things to do LOL!

The Origin Darwin Presentation was live streamed Feb 5th (Monday) at 10:55am. Did anyone catch the live stream? If not hopefully that presentation will be available for replay soon.

Nano: If I said something more idiotic than the Beetaloo being a coal seam gas project please let me know :^) You need to lighten up a little - its pretty obvious that statement was either a misquote by the author of the article or just a simple misstatement by your bud Ben.. I read the whole RBS report with all its references to shale development and comparisons to shale plays in the US, tec.. After my initial disappointed reaction to the report I even came back to compliment Ben's report as being a good evaluation of where Falcon is at this time - my problem with Ben is that he won't assign any value to anything past the point of his nose - its a very very conservative report which I now appreciate as RBC Capital Markets' style. Maybe the dry wit of my comment was a little too much for you - I said a couple of weeks ago that the next 6-8 weeks was going to be tough for Falcon owners - you seem to be proving that point - Chill a little! Nice response to BOBS - I have given up trying to respond to the BS he post - he is a bottomless pit of negativity. Cheers from one of the Three Stooges!

Someone needs to school RBC analyst Ben Wilson that the Beetaloo is not a coal seam gas project! http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/origin-tips-boom-in-revenue-as-aplng-ramps-up-20180130-p4yz3q.html RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Wilson said the recent quarter was a standout result for APLNG, with its production levels implying an annual output above its previously forecast yearly production. However, in the long term Mr Wilson believes Origin needs improved guidance to maintain its ongoing value. "Origin Energy has had a strong run over the past 12 months, we continue to view the stock as a stand out in a relative context in our large-cap energy universe; however, we concede the case for absolute value upside is starting to fade," Mr Wilson said. "We look ahead to the first half FY18 financial results on February 15 for a possible upgrade to Energy Markets guidance for FY18 as the next potential positive catalyst." He also pointed to the Northern Territory's potential lifting of its fracking ban could also push further expansion in the Beetaloo Basin, allowing Origin to explore its coal seam gas assets in the region.

Origin slashes 650 jobs in Brisbane The decision comes as Origin attempts to progress its APLNG business to a steady state, after the construction and ramp up phases. The company said the internal structure would now be flatter and simpler and faster in decision making. Origin has also suffered three straight annual losses and last year posted its biggest ever at $2.23 billion. However, the LNG business is now starting to pick up. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/origin-energy-slashes-brisbane-jobs/news-story/04c16507805ff46ba4cb9feb0e64bdf0?nk=2f3eb27139aa87d427cffc49499e93b7-1517284881

Between the politicians and the green people energy prices have doubled in South Australia and Victoria. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/wholesale-energy-prices-doublelast-summers/news-story/bc420cd4b3da94d9b99d0df3663aef48?nk=e4d922f89d8190fd83199f1b3da41c0b-1517266653 I agree with Ian on the comment board - what's one more scientific inquiry going to hurt! - - We need a scientific study done on politicians, it seems most have caught the stupid disease (scientific name moronic). Currently the only cure is full removal from the environment causing the disease we need a test that can be done prior to becoming a politician that eliminates the possibility that the moronic disease will develop soon after. I'll get on with applying for a government grant to study this, I'm sure they will be more than happy to help as they too must be bewildered at their inability to perform.

If you haven't read the link below its worth a couple of minutes - its a balanced article. CM Gunner comes down to making his decision based on either emotion or on the scientific evidence of the year long inquiry panel. I think he has been clear that he is going to await the final report to make his ruling - that tells us he will be looking at the report itself which IMO leads his decision to allow fracing in limited areas under tightly prescribed regulations. Allowing fracing in limited areas allows the government/public access to the data they say they need to measure the risk they see in fracing. Without actual operations the anti-fracers can study fracking till the cows come home but without real data they won't know anymore about assessing risk three-five years from now than they currently know. For this reason IMO we will see the Beetaloo or possibly the Beetaloo Sub-Basin opened to fracing. I don't think there is any chance in hell that fracing will be widely opened in the NT - not for a few years anyway. This gives Gunner some political cover and allows the hijacked opinions of many of the public to better understand their fear of the fracing process. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-28/fracking-referendum-katherine-tourism-operators-fear-business/9346996 NT Chief Minister remains tight-lipped Chief Minister Michael Gunner has so far not indicated his intention regarding the future of the fracking moratorium. Michael Gunner speaks to the press "We're not going to make any decisions until the final report is handed down, and that could include banning it or allowing it in limited, highly regulated, highly proscribed areas," he said. With a large parliamentary majority, there is little danger of NT Labor losing government by saying yes to fracking. But the Territory's recent history is one of unpopular decisions that have toppled leaders from within. The only political imperatives that could block a pro-fracking decision are threats to Mr Gunner's leadership from left faction MPs or the party's rank and file. "We made a very clear promise at the last election as a Labor Party, and I'm the leader of that, that we would make a decision based off that final report," Mr Gunner said. "Everyone I've talked to in the Labor movement has been very positive about the process so far, about the report being handed down and a decision being made at the end of it."

I'm still waiting for clarification of where/when you saw the quote of Gunner saying no fracing for 5 years. I'm beginning to think that was just more BO BS. Back up your statement BOBS. You need to go back to talking to yourself in the mirror for affirmation - that guy in the mirror believes you more than we do - he even chuckles back at you when you tell him how smart you are.

Agree Nerves. I think any drop would be short lived but then I also would have thought we would be about .35 at this point so that shows how smart I am. Yes I have heard things were quitely proceeding but has Origin been given the Nod? - I don't really know. As Ribbit pointed out, Origin and thus Falcon will remain quite until we get some type of formal announcement from the NT - only makes political sense. I would think the stock goes up on the release of the report and then we hold our breath that the NT allows some drilling/fracing to proceed under the current regs. If Origin gets the go ahead then I look for another pop out of the stock and then we are off to the races. At that point, anyone waiting at the station number .19 will be left behind. On another topic I saw where the comment period beginning Feb 5th would be streamed - that possibly might have some tidbits as to the current thinking of Origin/Santos, etc.as to any proposed regulations. Getting closer Guys!

Hi there Nerves: We are seeing what no news does to Falcon's stock price. POG once told me that the primary reason to avoid a reverse split is inexpensive stocks like Falcon tend to fade when there is no news - a reverse split just seems to amplify that drop - the point being the stock price drops with no news (non debating a reverse split). Regardless, look where we are today - .24 usd is not too far off the .19 cents. If/when the moratorium is lifted one would expect to stock price to increase - .30 - .35? - pick your number. But if at that point Origin gets a further delay it makes sense to me that this stock would get smacked as many people wouldn't want to sit on dead money for a year. IMO the stock then corrects; likely overreacts to the downside going through support - thus the .19 area. I wouldn't expect it to stay there and of course sp would build as plans are laid for the 2019 drilling program. This is all just my WAG and I hope we never cross that bridge! So I am not trying to placate BigOnes - its just my reality that he MIGHT be able to acquire Falcon at .19 or less. Is that likely - I hope not but I just don't know. You won't see me currently selling stock to buy back at .19 as that would just be a crap shoot IMO! But that is why I said it would be a hell of a buy if you get the chance to buy it at that - especially since the cloud of the moratorium would have been lifted at that point. I believe in the longer term story of Falcon and if I get that buying opportunity I would certainly take it - all else being equal. I am making a conscious attempt to keep my responses down to BigOne's many times nonsensical post - they are really not worth the time it takes to responding and just trash up the board. When he poses logical negatives we need to engage - we owe it to ourselves to keep the blinders off.

Whoops Dude - Looks like dprussky popped that bloviated challenge (Show me a statement ,quote or commitment from anyone that has a voice in the vote that says otherwise.) I saw another politician in a recent NT news article that said he was opposed to fracing but if the inquiry panel gave fracing the green light then he thought that the NT should be allowed to immediately proceed under the existing regulations - sorry I can't give you the name but I'm not spending my time trying to disprove your BS. Also possibly I missed it and if so I am sure you can put your finger right on it - Where did Gunner say 5 years - No fracing for 5 years? I suspect he said the often quoted development stat that even if fracing were to begin today it would be 5 years before a commercial quantity of gas could be delivered to market, I would really like to see that quote and when it was made. .19 cents will probably be a reality if Origin gets put off a year but you or I don't know that factual answer today. We will just have to wait a bit to get the real answer - not just your WAG. Your post does flow well this evening - congratulations - take care of yourself and polish that mirror.

Geovanni: I clicked on the front part of the link (before http) and it worked for me. It didn't work when I clicked on the link that included Http to the end.

Chuckle, Chuckle, Chuckle - Don't wear that mirror out! Are you obnoxious in real life or is this just your posting personna? Take the $100 you said you made on your Falcon trade and buy a self-help book - that would be a great investment for you!

Chuckle, Chuckle, Chuckle! Look in the mirror and tell yourself how smart you are not to be in Falcon - we don't need your self validation here.

I stand corrected - just ventured into the detailed report - all of one of the case study areas is included in Falcon's concession - there seems to be two separate smaller blocks for the case study. Also, Larromah has 47 people - Daly Waters has 9 people - guess you can't always rely on Google! Looks likeI need to spend a little time this weekend on the Beetaloo Sub Basin detailed report.

Agree with you guys on the timing of the SIA. IMO it should be treated the same as the groundwater studies - just needs to be completed prior to moving into the production phase. Why go the the expense of putting all the structure in place with various communities/populations if there is a possibility the development phase might never happen. I do agree with a couple of the recommendations in all this Social Impact Report gobble-d-goop - to paraphrase - it helps the timing of the adaption/approval of the 'social license' if you spread the money (royalty) around. Money always seems to make the adoption of things easier. I also agree with the reports assessment that the aboriginal populations opinion/understanding of fracing is negative primarily due to all the propaganda they have been inundated with from all the anti-frackers - the oil companies need to get the word out that fracing can be done safely with economic benefits to those that wish to participate. The case study of the report covers 'West of Larrimah and East of Daly Waters'. On my map - 95%+ of that area is not included in Falcon's concession. By the way, the population of Larrimah is 11 people and they run the Larrimah Inn - they should support any new activity to their area. Otherwise I will defer to all of you on the rest of the report - I think Coffey felt it had to write pages of 'stuff' just to justify the fee they received - I know it gave me a headache to try to decipher all the BS in the summary portion - not brave enough to tackle the main report!

RT - I think the moratorium idea was a political platform promise by Gunner to seek a coalition concession from the Green Party. Its a political promise that Gunner has kept and he was/is determined to see it through and follow the panels recommendation.

RibbitToad: Yes - we have seen this before but thanks for re-posting - it's an important article that IMO shows the resolve CM Gunner has to live up to his and his cabinet's promise to follow the recommendations of the inquiry panel. He enlisted the National ALPs help in sidestepping a potentially embarrassing confrontation with his party's left leaning element that wants to continue with the moratorium. I have wondered since I first read this article if the quote attributed to the Labor party promising an indefinite moratorium on fracing was correct or media bias - from everything I have read Gunner had promised a 1 year moratorium to study fracing - nothing about it was indefinite. It is my understanding that Gunner's cabinet can in fact vote to lift the moratorium. Of course it is my hope that Gunner can receive the final inquiry report and make his ruling before the party's annual conference in later March/April(?) That would once again avoid an embarrassing confrontation with his party's left leaning element. If the moratorium gets tied up in the party's annual conference I am assuming that the current cabinet would prevail but that is something I would rather not have to endure as that might become quite messy!!