Member Info for WetWater

So what do you guys make of this. I don't understand the politics of how this works. Was this to be expected I assume? NT Govt slams pro-fracking move Chris McLennanChris McLennan News Anti-frackers have taken strength from a vote in the NT Parliament yesterday. A group of Katherine anti-frackers, who had travelled to Darwin for meetings on the issue, were in the Parliament to hear the Government vote overwhelming against an NT Opposition motion on the issue. The Government is set to receive a scientific report on the proposed development of onshore gas in the NT within days. The government said it will decide whether or not to lift a moratorium on shale gas mining. In parliament yesterday, the Opposition said �a well-regulated on shore shale gas industry presents a tremendous opportunity for the Territory, for the economy and for jobs�. It presented the following motion: That the Assembly: recognises the tremendous potential of a well-regulated onshore shale gas industry to create significant wealth and ongoing, long term jobs in the Northern Territory; and implores the Government to make an immediate decision on the lifting of its moratorium on onshore gas development in order to give the industry certainty, and to unlock this tremendous potential. Leader of the Opposition, Gary Higgins said it was shameful that only one member of the Labor government bothered to speak on the motion. �It is shameful that such an important topic for the future of the Territory did not raise any interest beyond the Treasurer, who was the only member of the Labor government to speak on the motion. �Such a pathetic response by the Labor government makes it pretty clear this government does not care about jobs, does not care about the future of the Territory or care about the economy,� said Mr Higgins. The motion was soundly defeated along party lines, 18 against, four in favour. https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/5299869/nt-govt-slams-pro-fracking-move/

I sounds like Mr. Alex Read is feeling a little left out of the technical discussions at the AGES Conference. I don't know if you caught his submission to the Inquiry Panel but I consider him to be a sidekick to LTG's Naomi. If I recall correctly he wanted to stir the pot regarding the casing deformation fiasco - Judge Pepper corrected him on the spot and backed him down. If the AGES Conference had a program/presentation on of the Dangers of Climate and Environmental destruction caused by fracking and why the sky will fall, Mr. Read would have fit right in. Why ABC Rural would have even quoted him in this article is beyond me - his line of bs isn't even relevant to the AGES Conference..

Martyw89: I fall between Mirabeau and Origin789 - I am thinking that if Gunner gives the go ahead but Origin misses 2018 the price should go to about 25 p. Like Mirabeau, I am pretty confident that the moratorium will be lifted - the unknown for me is what are going to be the NT's new restrictions/regulations. If we get held up past 2019 then all bets are off. I have pretty much accepted the fact that Origin will not be drilling in 2018 regardless if the moratorium is lifted. A source told me that an Origin employee from the states was planning to head back home which tells me nothing is in the works this year as far as drilling. It sounds like there may be some infrastructure work/engineering which might include planning for roads/pad sites, water well bores, etc. (all just my WAG). I guess the worst thing about having this assumption is that I am proven wrong which will make me smile! I think there will be news and projections that go along with any lifting which that will be positive for Falcon. Just having the moratorium out of the way is great news as long as Gunner doesn't in effect let burdensome regulations continue the ban. IMO I don't think he will play that game - if the moratorium is lifted I suspect Gunner will to let things proceed (fingers crossed) - I think with all the promises to follow the inquiry report, there will be hell to pay if he or the NT tries to negate the lifting by throwing up roadblocks.

I have been mulling over the Origin submission showing no wells to be scheduled in 2018. Being the ever optimistic person, I have always held out the possibility that Origin would drill at least the one remaining vertical test well if the NT's moratorium was lifted. What shocked me in the Origin submission was the fact that Origin appears to not have any well planned/scheduled for 2018 regardless of the moratorium's outcome. While I can say this was a surprise to me, based on price action of Falcon it apparently was not a shock or news to the general market. In hindsight, the market probably took the RBC Captial Market extensive brokerage report that came out around the first of the year at its was written. In that report they clearly stated that although a possibility existed for a well/s in 2018, they thought the probability of the next well would fall in 2019. When that report came out I thought the stock price declined, to where it is today, because of the very conservative price/evaluation RBC put on Falcon - In hindsight I am now thinking it was because of the prediction of a years delay in the drilling program. Dr. Close, head geologist for Origin, has also been quoted as saying the next Origin well would be in 2019 - Yes BigOnes I apologize again :) I chose to optimistically interpret that as with the inquiry panel study underway Origin was not going to be in their face saying they would be drilling when the 2018 dry season arrived. I guess I should have taken Dr. Close's at his word! The good news, IMO, is that the Origin 2019 news appears to be built into the current stock price. I suspect if the the Inquiry Panel's final report gives the green light to the Beetaloo Sub Basin the Falcon share price should see a bump. Then if the NT government gives the go ahead for exploratory wells to proceed under the current regulations hopefully Falcon share price will increase even more. At that point it is just a matter of timing for Falcon - IMO the closer we get to the end of 2018 I suspect the share price will begin strengthening with the approach of the 2019 drilling season ( Origin's 2-4 wells planned for 2019). Our little Falcon owns 30% of a world class shale gas discovery - the largest shale gas play outside the US. If that means I have to put this stock in the drawer for this next 9 -10 months then so be it - its still a great investment. Gunner needs to help lift the NT out of its economic doldrums and provide jobs and growth - Either lead or get the hell out of the way!!

Billboard - It looks like Origin is restating/clarifying its schedule to the panel as it pertains to no planned drilling in 2018. That seems pretty clear and direct. What I can't figure out is why Origin wouldn't even be planning the remaining vertical test well this year if the moratorium is lifted - it looks like they have ruled that out unless that is not classified as an exploration well. That decision was made sometime last year? I was under the impression that it took awhile to fully study and analyze data from the vertical test so why not get that behind them in 2018. Puzzling! Hopefully Falcon will clarify in the near future.

Is Origin going to sit on their thumbs in 2018 - That is the way I interpret this cut from their submission. Looks like we are going to be in for a wait - disappointing if I read this correctly. 2.2 Exploration and Appraisal Activity Origin has maintained and evidenced throughout the NT Inquiry process that small scale exploration and appraisal activities can be safely executed and that activities should be permitted to continue during the forthcoming period of improvements to the NT regulatory framework. During the final round of Public Hearings and Community Meetings, misunderstanding or misalignment existed as to the level of activity during Exploration and Appraisal. To support the Panel in assessing and contemplating recommendations in this regard, Origin sets out below the exploration work currently being contemplated for the next three years. 2018 Zero (0) new wells to be installed (drilled) Engineering and civils / infrastructure work required for 2019 activities 2019 Two (2) to four (4) wells to be installed (drilled and stimulated) 2020 Two (2) to four (4) wells to be installed (drilled and stimulated) NT Inquiry � Origin Submission dated 25 February 2018 10/96 In outlining the above activity level(s), we consider it important to highlight that in Origin�s submission dated 30 April 2017 � in response to the NT Inquiry�s Background and Issues Paper - we provided information at Chapter 3 (Exploration work to date and national development scenarios). In this submission, information was provided in the context of assisting in articulating the slow pace and steady nature of activities through each phase leading up to a potential development. Such a notional development scenario was deemed necessary and appropriate in order to assist the Panel in being able to purposefully identify and assess risk anchored in a notional and plausible level of activity from exploration, appraisal, delineation through to development (options provided being small-scale and large-scale).

Yes I think the ban will end soon but not so certain I would bet 25 - 30 million on it. Origin does have an out - from what I recall it may be every two wells so you don�t get too unreasonable with them. The Hess delay was their own doing - Origin has no real control over this delay despite what you say. Like I said, it sounds like a delay beyond Origin�s control is allowed for in the contract from the POQ comment that the clock is not running. Falcon was paid $20 million plus a carry on 9 wells - Falcon has obligations to live up to also. IMO its a great fit - I am sure Origin and Falcon are on the same page. They are going to just have to play with the cards they are dealt by the NT. Still wondering - are you in or out at this point? You seem to avoid that question.

BO - Wow! Are you being serious? 1) Origin is allowed to,do both horizontal and vertical drilling - technically yes and that is why I say they could drill the vertical test, but are you seriously saying they should proceed with the horizontal without knowing if fracking will ever be permitted - we are not talking pennies to play a game of chance. Companies in the states drill now and frack later but that is just a function of commodity pricing or frack equipment availability 2) POQ said the clock is not running during the moratorium- That leads me to believe something is written into the contract. The delay is beyond Origin�s control- you indicate you have seen the contract which I suspect is more nonsense. 3) So if I farm out a lease to you I should go around making all kinds of promises as to how many locals you will hire, how many total jobs you will provide, what type of community involvement you will be involved with, etc. sounds like more nonsense to me. 4). Falcon is getting compensation from Origin - to the tune of about $200 million. Glad I am not doing business with you. I�m afraid we would be in a huge lawsuit about this time.

I would have apologized with hat in hand sooner but I have been on the road today - just now getting to the board. I will be out of office for about 5 days so I can�t go back and look at much - I refuse to post or research on an iPad any more than I have to. Thanks for the date of the quote. I want to look into the context. People close to Origin have told me differently far after that date. Even RBC indicated there was a possibility of drilling in 2018 though their best guess was 2019. Anyway, at this point I stand corrected - he obviously said it. Thanks Gunner�s statement that it could take less than a 4 year term does not equate to a five year ban as you stated. When on a real computer I will go back and look up your quote on there being no well heads, tubing etc available to drill/complete wells - I seem to remember that coming from one of your strange post around the holidays(?) I think the quote about the Permian Basin might have been a separate post - not sure. Anyway, the Beetaloo concession can�t even begin to be compared to the PB - it�s in the exploration phase for a reason - Origin completed the first friggen HFT in the middle of nowhere. The infrastructure comes later! I might have been the one to compare the potential stacked plays to the PB. You will also find that Close made that same type of comparison as to multiple tables of production. Yes I know the PB is basically oil where the Beetaloo looks to be gas - though the Kyalla might contain oil? Look at the Delaware Basin and all the fracking going on around Pecos - that�s pretty much in the middle of nowhere but infrastructure building quickly - that is how things work. If you drill it they will come - man camps and all! Please comment on you statement that Falcon should be out spreading the news to the public and promoting jobs, etc. Maybe you can tell us where in the manual it says that a company farming out their interest should get out in front of the operator as you say Falcon should? Can you spell nonsense! Curious - are you in or out? Maybe you�ll tell us after the decision comes down? I�m all in just to let you know - you may get the last laugh - or not - whose side are you on? Just so you don�t forget - I apologized for the Close statement - just not sure if it was posturing or not - but apparently he said it so you win. You�re right and I�m wrong - god I wish I was dead :)

BO - Can you please point me to the quote where Origin said they have no plans to drill in 2018 - I missed that statement, Is it in the same article that you said Gunner is quoted as saying no fracking for 5 years? Or maybe it was in the article which you said quoted saying wells couldn't be drilled because there was no drilling equipment, well heads, drill pipe etc. I am still waiting for you to direct me to the source of Gunner's 5 year quote. I will stand corrected on Origin if you can please make that sources know. RBC said they didn't anticipate Origin drilling in 2018 - is Origin being politically correct before the inquiry panel releases its final report - The optics would be pretty bad if Origin was openly planning proceeding prior to the release of the report. I don't have that answer and a HFT may not be in the cards but I still wouldn't bet against a vertical test well - as far as I know conventional drilling is still permitted in the NT under the old regs. I think if the moratorium is lifted then the vertical test this year comes down to economics. You seem to not understand the concept of a JV project with Origin being the drilling contractor. Origin is driving this train and therefore would be the one educating the communities , promoting benefits, jobs, etc. Falcon is sitting in the passenger seat being fully carried in this project - they have little control over the actual operations or contact with the public. You haven't seen them submitting to the inquiry panel for the same reason they are not outfront being hyper proactive - Its not their job as a fully carried partner.

Lucro - All wells to be drilled have to be permitted through the current regulatory body. If the government requires permitting under the inquiry panel's newly proposed Oil & Gas body then obviously a permit couldn't be obtained from the current regulatory body. Origin made the case that since all wells require a permit then why not make any applicable regulations thought to be required for safely/environment known to the current body which could then issue a permit based on those new additional regulations - in that way the government could let exploratory wells proceed without waiting for the government to first create the new Oil and Gas oversight body ie - Under new regulations a well might be required to meet Category 9 standards - the current body then would only permit the well if it was engineered to that standard, Mission accomplished for the drilling contractor and the government with the well being permitted, exploration could continue and the NT air/water wouldn't poisoned! The only problem I can see with allowing this to happen is that it makes too much sense!

Pangaea is basically telling the inquiry panel and Gunner that they are ready to hit the ground running in 2018. IMO, Origin/Santos is likely telling the same story but being public companies are more likely behind the scenes. Will it work? - That is the big unknown at this point. Potential buyers are probably taking a wait and see position. If the moratorium is lifted as I think it will be, but then drilling is put off till 2019 what will the s/p be? It may be a wash or the stock could retreat - I personally wouldn't see the stock advancing much under that scenario. - maybe in 6-8 months s/p could begin to build in anticipation of 2019 dry season but that is just my WAG. As I mentioned in a previous post it would be nice to at least see Origin drill the last vertical test in 2018- focusing on the Kyalla which IMO is going to be the target of the next HFT. Would that drive the share price - I think it would if Origin finds what they are looking for - the Kyalla, being shallower and with its stacked play potential would change the dynamics of the Beetaloo and be a great story to tell and ponder. This is all just my opinion on this slow day.

I was hoping that the cloud over SA might lift for Falcon's concession. With the recent Parliament vote (241 - 83) to take all white-owned land without compensation doesn't look like a move which will make many foreign investors eager to invest in the country. This is the way most fascist and Marxist governments begin and IMO does not make for a business friendly environment - I am thinking Chevron will run the other way until the picture clears. South Africa Votes To Seize White-Owned Land Without Compensation Photo of Will Racke WILL RACKE Immigration and Foreign Policy Reporter 9:56 AM 02/28/2018 23262531 23262531 Share South Africa�s parliament voted Tuesday to move forward with an amendment to the country�s constitution that would allow the government to seize and redistribute white-owned land without compensation. The motion was brought by the radical Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party and was widely supported by the ruling African National Congress, which controls almost two-thirds of the parliament. The measure passed by a vote of 241 to 83, reports Reuters. EFF leader Julius Malema, a longtime proponent of land expropriation, said the �time for reconciliation is over. Now is the time for justice.� �We must ensure that we restore the dignity of our people without compensating the criminals who stole our land,� Malema told parliament ahead of the vote, according to South Africa�s News24. The ANC has long promised land reforms aimed at evening the distribution of land among racial groups, still a highly contentious subject more than two decades after the end of apartheid. Whites own roughly three-quarters of South Africa�s farmland, according to a 2017 government audit. It was not immediately clear when any change to South Africa�s constitution to allow expropriation of land without compensation would take place. The matter will now be referred to the Constitutional Review Committee, which must report back to parliament with a plan by August 30. Newly elected South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has backed land confiscation, saying after his inauguration earlier this month that he would work to hasten the transfer of land to black people. He also stressed that food production and security should be considered in any expropriation effort. Not all of South Africa�s parties supported the motion to amend the constitution. The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) opposed the measure, arguing that it would undermine property rights and deter foreign investment. DA lawmaker Thandeka Mbabama said expropriation without compensation �cannot be part of the solution,� adding that it was a �lie peddled by the ANC, who fears being outflanked on the left by the EFF.�

Walk - Very interesting. This is something I need to look into. The majority of my FOLGF shares are held in Fidelity but I also use TD as they recently bought out my Scottrade account. On top of that I have FOLGF in Interactive Brokerages, Garwood Securities and also Ally. Tells you something about my year end tax work nightmare :) As you mentioned, the OTC can be a pretty ill-liquid market at times and the market makers are not you friend - I've often wondered how I would sell shares when the time comes - you may have given me a solution. I definitely will look into Fidelity regarding their international trading desk and the ASX. Appreciate your thoughts and your time to put the post together. Good Luck to you and all in the next 2-3 weeks!

Ouch!: FOG up 2.77% today FOLGF down 10.38% on above average volume (260K). Leak or a nervous nelly wanting out. We will see what tomorrow brings!

Marty - A big IMO share price for Falcon when the ban is lifted. My crystal ball has not been working well lately as I thought the stock would be about 30 p today so take this wag what it is apparently worth I am looking for the stock to make a new recent high of about 32 p when the ban is lifted. Then we have IMO, the bigger question of when exploration wells will be allowed to continue - If that is approved for this year then maybe 42-45 p. With a successful vertical well maybe 55 - 60 p. If by chance Origin gets a hft completed this year maybe 73 - 75 p. - If that hft is a Kyalla test and it lives up to Origins expectations then 100 p (if a Kyalla hft it may be the later part of 2018 before those results would be known). Anybody care to chime in a guess - the price per guess is cheap! I would be curious to see what this group is thinking now that decision time awaits.

IMO there is a possibility that Origin could still, at a minimum, drill the remaining vertical test well.as that could proceed under the existing conventional well regs. However, I don't understand how the economics would play out to move a rig to the middle of who knows where just to drill one vertical well - I guess it depends on where in the Beetaloo it might be located. In my mind, the remaining vertical test will be the next well drilled anyway - the only reason it hasn't already been drilled was that Origin saw the moratorium coming and quickly applied for a permit for the Amungee horizontal frac well in its place - a gutsy but brilliant move in POQ's words. This last vertical test well might be used to better understand the Kyalla rock characteristics and how that shale zone responds to a limited vertical frac test. So yes, I think Origin could get something done in 2018 if the economics/logistics allow for the remaining Vertical Test.

Business contributed over 2/3 of the political contributions to CM Gunner. Business is pro growth and IMO solidly in the camp of fracking. Just another indication that Gunner is going to do right by business development and job growth...........and fracking :). NT businesses put their money on Labor GARY SHIPWAY, NT News March 1, 2018 8:30am Subscriber only TERRITORY developers and other businesses put their money on the Territory Labor Party in the last financial year, donating more than $625,000. This was around two thirds of the total funds of $950,119.32 donated to the NT Labor Party in the 2016-17 financial year. Labor�s candidates and politicians and its political fund raising arms contributed the bulk of the remaining, kicking the tin with more than $205,000. Unions were the next largest donor contributing more than $120,000. In contrast the Territory Country Liberal Party, despite showing receipts of $1,701,931, only received $445,000 from developers and the business community. The bulk of the Country Liberal Party�s donations came from The Free Enterprise Foundation ($455,000) which is recognised as the Liberal Party fundraising body and Cormack Foundation Pty Ltd ($200,000) which is an Australian investment company established to raise funds for the Liberal Party of Australia. Also showing up in its total is receipts of $188,806 from the Australian Electoral Commission and $132,854 from the Australian Taxation office. Almost $280,000 in CLP donations came from its local political branches and party faithful. It was a much bleaker picture for the Territory�s other major party the 1 Territory Party (1TP), which seemingly struggled to win the hearts, minds and wallets of developers and the business community. It had AM Constructions listed as its only donor in the 2016-17 financial year. AM Constructions gave in kind support of $35,090. The Country Liberal Party issued an apology after its returns were released on Thursday. It originally had the NT News� sister publication the Centralian Advocate in Alice Springs as a $10,000 donor. However the figure was actually a debt the Party owed the publication. This amount reflected an internal Party transfer to pay for advertising during the 2016 Northern Territory Election.

Origin - Justice Pepper says it is likely that jobs will actually be double what ACIL Allen reported. Pangaea in their recent submission to the inquiry panel said they they project triple the ACIL Allen report. Living out in the heart of frack land in the US, I can look out my office window, drive down the street or get into a restaurant/store and see the true effects of fracking on the jobs in the Permian Basin - far more than even what Pangaea is predicting. Not only lots of jobs but still plenty of clean water and fresh air out here - with about 400 rigs running through the basin (about 80% horizontal wells) we haven't been poisoned yet - sorry to disappoint Naomi!

Origin - Justice Pepper says it is likely that jobs will actually be double what ACIL Allen reported. Pangaea in their recent submission to the inquiry panel said they they project triple the ACIL Allen report. Living out in the heart of frack land in the US, I can look out my office window, drive down the street or get into a restaurant/store and see the true effects of fracking on the jobs in the Permian Basin - far more than even what Pangaea is predicting. Not only lots of jobs but still plenty of clean water and fresh air out here - with about 400 rigs running through the basin (about 80% horizontal wells) we haven't been poisoned yet - sorry to disappoint Naomi!