Member Info for wetherboy

"I’m a long term holder and obviously pleased with any rise in the SP. But is this market for real ? Is it being regulated properly? What was the news today that wasn’t expected to cause such an 11% rise? London market is a farce"

It was the removal of fear..

https://advanced-television.com/2021/11/02/bt-favoured-by-bank/

I’d like to think so but I reckon we’ll get clobbered tomorrow. Hope I’m wrong.

It’s like an oil tanker but it is starting to turn, albeit slowly.

Notice period for Sky maybe. Or is it that the next period of football rights start from 22 to 25? Strange that a deal has apparently been agreed but may not get announced for up to 4 weeks. Presumably the Q2 results won’t confirm either.

I assume Drahi cannot be at 13% yet or we would know. That's about 89M more than the 12.1% we know about. Each notifiable step of 1% is just shy of 100m.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/telecom/lse-bt.a/bt-group-shares?r=/user/profile#valuation

'Any cables bt find not authorised to be in their ducting should be cut and pulled out'

I agree but you do know that the press would lay the blame 100% on BT as they always do..

Correction. If you prefer you could wait until just before Q3

DYOR but I would buy at about 11am on results day just before the price starts to recover a bit. I have loads but am not bullish in the short term. You v CG oils wait until just before Q3 results if you prefer.

I was on an internal BT Q&A with Philip Jansen last week. He didn’t let on too much as you’d expect but based on his demeanour I would say he’s not very bullish about the Q2 results but seemed confident all will turn good in the 2 to 3 year period. Interestingly he said that He has the backing he needs to be competitive against the completion and is confident BT can compete. My own view is that BT needs to cut out many more managers and keep driving down costs as quickly as possible to enable that competitiveness. From an insiders view it all looks to slow to me.

Does anyone think that the recent press articles about Sky investing in VMO2 might just push BT along a bit with it's plans to sell off a bit of Openreach with Sky as a possible investor? I would have thought BT would prefer this rather than the possibility of losing Sky as a customer over the next few years.

It’ll all settle down once the posturing is over. There’s much to lose but also much to gain once the deals are done.

From that article:

An internet service provider with access to the nation’s entire fibre footprint, will be able to negotiate the best rates across and operate the most efficient marketing budget – ultimately lowering prices for consumers.

Watch the rise up to Nov 23 then. Sell on 22nd..

So should we expect an upturn in the share price from here?

I asked BT if they could tell me why the consensus numbers have stayed the same for the last two months or so and they very quickly came back with a response including the following:

over the last few weeks, none of the analysts covering BT have updated their numbers.

One or two more updates before the Q2 results. Hopefully an analysts update before those.

I do gather that many here wouldn’t trust an analyst put together a shopping list so maybe it’s all irrelevant.

Worth a read. More balanced than many.

Love that TelecomTV article

Here’s a question for the experts.

When Drahi bought earlier this year do you think he may have seen this chip shortage coming and suspected he might to be able to snap up BT on the cheap once sentiment went downhill? He is in the business after all and you’d hope he had his eye on these things. Or would it have made more sense to wait rather than pay what is now about 15% to 20% above yesterday’s price?

Also, could this uncertainty be why the analysts are not updating the consensus These days?