Balanced view on the ICC Chad arbitration PART 123 May 2026 20:11
The Venezuela nationalisation and country bankruptcy with numerous claimants in the balance sheet waterfall (pitting against each other for a better result) is not the same as Chad and SAVE. Vz had OFAC and US sanctions. Foreign assets are ring fenced (eg Citgo and BOE holding Vz Gold). Vz refused the international legal system.
Post ICC ruling, SAVE can seize pipeline revenues flowing through correspondent banking in Paris or New York, or pursuing COTCO distributions via Cameroon. The pipeline tariff revenues are a target. And other avenues. I say a 50% haircut is possible and multiple years to recover + interest. Anything above then great.
Chad has already admitted they are liable. There is an element of infrastructure carve out in SAVE’s favour. And AK’s legal team closed the deal based on 60 day timeframe in which decided to remain silent during hence running the clock down for a block. Simply an inaction caused the approval action. Chad did not published a reasoned opposition. Chad tried to run over the Long Stop date with various tactics and in combo to gaining a majority stake in Cotco and booting out SAVE directors off the board (the preemption rights over the Petronas 29.7% stake)
ICC documents 2023: See section 38 & 39
-38. Under the terms of Convention 1 and "in accordance with the provisions of the Petroleum Code," the rights and obligations resulting from Convention 1 could not be assigned, in part or in whole, except in the case of assignments to affiliated companies, "without the prior approval of the Chad Ministry." In the absence of a "reasoned opposition" by the Ministry within 60 days of notification of the draft assignment accompanied by the draft certificate of assignment, the assignment "will be deemed to have been approved by the Ministry" (Article 30-1 of Convention 1 – Exhibit R-2).
-39. Furthermore, if a member of the Consortium were to change ownership, i.e., the company member of the Consortium changes or its control changes as a result of a change in its shareholding, said member was required to submit this change or any draft change to "the prior approval of the Ministry" (Articles 30-3 and 36-5 of Convention 1 – R-2). If no "reasoned opposition" has been notified within 60 days of notification of any proposed change to the Ministry, the change will be deemed to be approved (ibid.).
At the July 4, 2023 COTCO board meeting convened by Chad itself, the board passed a resolution stating: “The shares held by EPIL in COTCO therefore fall within the scope of nationalization. It is appropriate to transfer to [TPC SA], at the request of Chad, the shares held by EPIL in COTCO, subject to Chad paying any compensation due to EEPCI and/or EPIL in accordance with the nationalization law.”
Chad’s nationalization law (Law No. 003/PT/2023 of 31 March 2023) itself contains compensation language — and the board resolution explicitly cross-references it.
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