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This is clearly being driven by fundamentals at the moment.

The share buyback and cancellation will obviously mitigate some of the dilution that was suffered. I would love to know more details on the exception clauses in the shareholder agreement signed between Knott and Nipco. Also on cancellation the concert party (will it be?) will easily creep up above 50% upon share cancellations. If this happens minority shareholders should be concerned. A tender offer would easily get them to 75% and they can apply to the FCA listing authority to do delisting, which then forces a lot of funds and retail to tender because mandate disallows non listed investments, and Bidco would quickly get to 90% which is the Squeeze out threshold. A Scheme of Arrangement would be succesful if 75% on quorum ex Bidco stake vote in favour. This requires a lot of retail and small shareholder coordination to have a blocking stake - clearly price is an important variable-. So if say Bidco is 50%and excluded, and say 40% percent turn up to vote, 10% of shareholders could block this (25% of 40%). Hard to know how accurate the shareholder register is for smaller holders. And of course all depends on price. We shall see what happens next few months

You would be astounded at the number of companies that fall 80% or more at some point of their existence, and the amount that go to zero. So not an AK centric thing. I am taking emotion out of the investment thesis. And certainly not trivialising losses made by investors realised or not.

I am not looking at the past performance. All I can do is look at it with an optic as of today. The decision is buy/sell/hold/short sell. Which one chooses with the current and future info is what I will use in my decision.

Zengas thank you re IPO, but also they have bought 15m odd shares recently. The CIO determined that even with the staggering losses they justify doubling down. Are they wrong? Not sure. The fact is we can only trade with what we see ahead of us. Trying to be constructive and not enter into the hyperbole arena

Also seems line AI is not distinguishing Savannah Resources from Savannah Energy and confusing chairmanships and names. Will check the relationship of LUDIVINE with current directors. Fact is they increased recently by 15 million. Assuming Bloomberg largest holders is correct.

Sorry spell: LUDIVINE* Capital

Ludivine Wouters is involved with Euro Manganese Inc. as a Non-Executive Director, where the Chairman of the Board is Joseph Pagop Noupoué—who is also the Chairman of Savannah Energy PLC.

Ludovine Capital has 27million shares which is 1.3% of SAVE. Not huge. But they bought 15 mn shares in January this year. I assume she is behind this Malta registered company.

While Wouters herself is not listed as a director or executive of Savannah Energy PLC, she has professional ties to the company through her leadership roles and shared board networks:

Advisory Work: Through her firm, Latitude Five, she provides investment and strategy advisory for natural resources and infrastructure projects in Africa, the primary region where Savannah Energy operates.

Sector Overlap: Wouters is a specialist in African mineral policy and energy transition. Savannah Energy is a major player in African oil, gas, and renewable energy, recently expanding into solar and hydropower projects.

Hi BB, interesting that the UAE’s CEPA with Chad shall be signed soon is what I understand. This comprehensive economic partnership agreement, like most agreements that encompass FDI and with long duration contracts, are there to offer legal protections for the investors. And The Chad 2030 Connection project seeks to attract $30 Billion over the next 4 years. So it makes sense that a nationalisation dispute is resolved sooner rather than later. We shall see. Feels good. Not out of the woods yet but feels like the news flow is pointing in the right direction.

Makes sense SP. Hopefully the next 4 months will be full of good updates!

Let’s hope so MP! Interesting timing by Nipco and AK’s increased exposure + his share ownership reshuffle.

This was an AI summary. Interesting timing that UAE might want to resolve the SAVE via an exit agreement. UAE and Chad have a framework (also CNPC). And Chad will have majority in energy investments going forward. I guess their preferred partners are also SOEs and happy to work in a nationalised environment.

In 2026, the UAE has moved from being a casual investor to the strategic architect of Chad’s energy future. While traditional Western firms have been replaced by the state-run SHT, UAE firms are providing the specialized capital and infrastructure needed to keep the country’s oil flowing and its lights on.

The "quiet whispers" are backed by massive, tangible project commitments from three main UAE-linked entities:

1. Global South Utilities (GSU) - The Solar Pioneer

While Masdar is the UAE's global "big name," Global South Utilities (GSU) has become the primary UAE vehicle for rapid execution in Chad.

• The "Noor Chad" Project: In late 2025/early 2026, GSU commissioned the Noor Chad 50 MW Solar PV Plant near N'Djamena.

• Impact: This is the first industrial-scale renewable project in Chad, providing power to over 274,000 homes. Crucially, it includes a 5 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS), proving that the UAE is bringing the high-tech stability the Chadian grid desperately lacks.

2. ADNOC & XRG - The Oil & Gas Money

The "whispers" regarding the Savannah Energy settlement are most closely tied to XRG, the newly expanded international investment arm of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC).

• Massive Capital Pool: XRG's investment pool was boosted to $151 billion for the 2026–2030 period.

• The "fixer" role: Industry insiders note that XRG’s mandate includes "strategic regional stability." By providing Chad with the liquidity (through bridge loans or infrastructure credits) to settle with Savannah Energy, XRG ensures that the Doba Basin assets remain "clean" and open for future UAE/Chinese investment without the threat of international asset seizures.

3. AMEA Power - The Scale Factor

Dubai-based AMEA Power has also been scouting Chad as part of its 2026 expansion. Following its success in Egypt (where it commissioned 1 GW of power in record time), AMEA is in talks to scale Chad’s renewable capacity toward the 520 MW solar goal set by the "Chad Connection 2030" plan.

• Strategic Pivot: AMEA often specializes in markets where Western companies see too much risk, making them the perfect partner for a post-nationalization Chad.

4. Etihad Credit Insurance (ECI) - The Risk Shield

In November 2025, the UAE’s federal export credit company, ECI, signed a major MoU with Chad’s Ministry of Finance.

• Why it matters: This agreement provides trade finance and insurance for UAE companies working in Chad. Effectively, the UAE government is guaranteeing the risk of its own companies (like GSU and AMEA), allowing them to build infrastructure in Chad even while the legal battle with Savannah Energy remains technically active.

Interesting to see the rotations out of tech into value stocks. Oil sector has benefitted so far YTD, E&P and Oil Services ETFs and Stoxx sector indices showing 15% + appreciations. Small cap is another story, but let’s hope the rotation starts to affect the lower caps. And get some derisking derived inflows.

You still can. People have not picked up on the nuances of Knott’s share consolidation and what it implies, nor the auditor appointment.

Thank you MP, very interesting. Sure sounds like the dynamics are improving. Also I add, if US troops entered Nigeria to combat insurgents, I wonder if there will be other operations in adjacent/West Central Africa and to be precise Niger which has large Uranium deposits which will fall into the hands of China/Russia etc

Hi Zengas,

I have read your views and thank you for your posts. Have you managed to speak to the SAVE management lately?

Would be good if you have views from the BP Libya arbitration which set some strong precedents. Plus French law Exequatur and the Doba Convention. Seems like they have a really good case plus a better defined collection method to recoup any awards within a reasonable time once the ICC outcome is known.

You are right MP. Under a Scheme of Arrangement though, retail would have a say assuming they are very coordinated. Concert parties to a Bidco would be excluded from the Scheme vote. So the blocking stake already exists. Another story is if they implemented via a Tender Offer. Assuming this is the ultimate play by Nipco + AK. Although a roll up I believe would have to be extended to all but there are exemptions. I want to speak to SAVE. But at a higher level.

Do you know SP if anybody has had any meaningful engagement with IR or higher this year?

I think it is time they were more open about:

-The ECL table update ie receivables overdue

-ICC process at a high level without giving away legal strategy.

-Explain the audit process.

-Projections of Net Debt for 2027/2028

Interesting how 2 events have been somewhat ignored by the market.

PKF is the new auditor of SAVE by the looks. They have African presence and also are the number 1 AIM auditor and and ranked number 4 UK for listed companies. The company should release a RNS to update on this front. No idea why the delay.

Also Knott’s share consolidation from holding ltd to personal could imply a better tax treatment in case there is a corporate action for example. Would be good to have an expert opinion on this one.

I also read about the ICC - arbitration. Clearly the management must be feeling confident on the outcome . I will summarise the main points of why the outcome is very likely positive for SAVE and also the methods for collecting the award.

“Didn’t”*

There is a link to their African business. LSE Website did. It allow me to post it.