Member Info for wasarunner

But the market isn't perfect. With no change of information, a junior can easily be valued -50% to +200% on the vagaries of the market. Here we've had covid, war, and last (and by no means least) the company not hitting it's targets - which of course is the main parameter (mostly) under it's control. However the macro operating environment in-country for e.g. the lack of diesel or lack of drill rigs is not necessarily all under the company control - plenty of supply chain problems in Blighty and how much more developed economy are we?

I guess when I say 'no crash' I mean none of the principal stakeholders (I'll include myself in that one with my 1% but I really mean the 70% institutionally held shares) have probably sold. So the 30% are held by PIs - usually notoriously fickle and keen to make gains wherever they can whenever they can with little view of the investing window, which in my opinion should always be measured in years, and not weeks or months, especially if you are dealing with a junior company bringing its first mine online in Africa. That the fickle PIs sell in the absence of (good) news I usually see as an opportunity so I've been adding a few myself at the 5p level.

There is no guaranteed outcome and that's the risk we take. What I expect to happen is for gold to go up in price as $ weakens (US won't kill its own economy), and Goldstone to start improving recoveries and volume. If they can't do the latter then of course - it wasn't a good investment - that's the bit that's under their control.

Back to the shareprice - 5p is half of 10p which might be considered 'par' for what we were expecting (and which Goldstone didn't deliver) so maybe justified. 15p was probably over based on expectation of 'what if'. Well the big numbers didn't materialise this year, and we see a more modest number pencilled for next year, but if they hit that more modest number we'll be back above 10p in no time.

How quickly can the share price recover? Anyone who hasn't already seen it can glance over at Horizonte - 86p on 7th November, 136p on 7th December. And it is a much more liquid share than this one which means if we get good news we will recover real fast. GLA

by my calcs that makes 330m shares fully diluted but very happy to see any other calcs, as I may have this wrong. I asked this at the time of the fundraise but nobody on (this) board responded....

That's not to excuse the lack of comms. Something this side of new year would be nice.

what crash? The price has dropped but noone with any holding has sold because the volume has been - zero. So the 'crash' is a few bored PIs selling in the absence of news. All IMHO (doesn't mean a raise isn't coming but that's not what 'crashed' the price. What 'crashed' the price is people having a time horizon of weeks/months instead of years.

Tue, 4th Oct 2022 17:14

"On Admission of the Placing Shares it will trigger an adjustment under the terms of the Convertible Loan Notes issued on 23 November 2021 to Orion and La Mancha to ensure that the percentage of new Ordinary Shares in the Company's share capital to be issued on conversion will remain unchanged following the Fundraise. Pursuant to the terms of the Convertible Loan Instruments, in the event of an Adjustment Event (as defined therein) taking place, the price at which the Convertible Loan Notes may be converted ("Conversion Price") and/or the number of Ordinary Shares into which the Convertible Loan Notes may convert ("Conversion Shares") must be adjusted such that that after the adjustment the total number of Conversion Shares carries (as nearly as possible) the same entitlement to participate in the profits and assets of the Company (including on liquidation) and the same proportion of the voting rights attached to all the issued and outstanding Ordinary Shares (on a fully diluted basis) as if there had been no such Adjustment Event."

The CLNs are adjusted so that the proportion of the equity covered by the CLNs is no less than before the autumn raise this year. Which means more shares when they convert. GLA

I made assumptions about the CLNs conversion because the precise number can not be known at the moment as it rolls up interest into the final conversion, so the number of shares issued is dependent on the date they convert. I don't have my calc anymore for the 330m but I was happy with it when I did it, happy to be corrected though. GLA

330m shares is what I arrive at 'fully diluted' assuming no more dilution and assuming CLNs convert. If anyone ends up with something radically different please post your calcs.

OilyRags I also missed your timescale (mid 24) which for me is the 'early end' of when we get bought. I'm happy with mid 24 - mid 25 and £2bn would be absolutely dandy - that's why I think we might get a tad more for e.g. A2 - the further down the build we are with it (and it should be being built in 25) the more we should get in the sale. £2bn may sound toppy but really Vermelho in and of itself is a world class asset that a major would pay proper money for, and we'll have 1 producing mine and 1 under construction by then. So I'm very comfortable with my £3-6 sale value estimate but hadn't anticipated this sharp move up before Christmas though many had been pointing out how undervalued we are relatively to progress...

Getting quoted 1.27 at the moment on 50k shares. There is liquidity!

I think Vermelho's NPV will be bigger than the PFS because I think they are going for more tonnage. Reading the latest presentation. And given the nature of the product (battery) I think we should get 10% for it in a sale.

OilyRags - I didn't see your earlier estimate there when I did mine hadn't scrolled down. Eerie but I think this price is realistic. You attribute slightly less to A2 (but we might have part built it by the take out and part funded it so it should get more IMO) and I attribute a bit to the vast nickel district also, but I was working on a more conservative nickel price than $30k/t.

Who knows in a sellers market we might get more. JM is on record as saying we have multiple Onca Pumas (3x?) and look how much that sold for etc.

>>...and bang on the money £6/sh assuming 330m shares fully diluted.
which is a price I would be much more than happy with....

I'll have a go because this subject interests me for 2 reasons: 1. I think it is what will happen and 2. I have enough shares to care about the price.

80% A1 NPV, 50% A2 NPV, 10% V NPV, 1% price nickel in the ground 'the remainder of the 4m tonnes'.
Assumptions
$1.3bn NPV A1, $1.3bn NPV A2, $4bn NPV V, 35 year av mine life @60kt/yr leaves 2m tonnes of nickel in the ground @$20k/t

That would be $2.49bn or £2.04bn at current exchange rate and bang on the money £6/sh assuming 330m shares fully diluted.

with ii you can do it (apparently):

How to buy Australian shares with ii
To buy Australian shares with ii, you will need to first open an account.

From your account, simply select ‘trade now’ and ‘international’ to search for the shares you want to invest in. You will be prompted at this point to sign Exchange Agreements – this lets you access live international share pricing.

>>WASA, if you do have a line to MB, can you please tell him to do at least some form of publicity. Their comms really are terrible and IMO it has a negative impact on the SP, which will in turn hit the company when it tries to raise funds.

Tardis I think he is well aware. I think when the newsflow (and not just a single item) is ready it will flow. I think comms will ramp up when the progress ramps up and with a bit of luck so will the shareprice! He won't finance it at the current price and I think the price will move when there is news.

DanInvestor being risk averse in a financial sense is always a good thing. Have a look at RMM, ARB etc - they spent above their means check what that does for ypur sp in the longer term! Cash is king for juniors. If MB miscalculated he doesn't want to have to whip round at the prevailing sp.

If it takes us 2023 to get all the i's dotted and t's crossed and finance secured say h2 and we are building a mine in 2024 to finish behind BKT it works for me. More time to accumulate next year. Gla

Sorry this one has already been posted missed that. The webinar is real interesting though I hadn't seen that yet.

https://youtu.be/4UlL746d4EQ

37 mins in.

https://www.miningreview.com/east-africa/black-rock-minings-mahenge-shovel-ready-and-raring-to-go/

Expected timeframe for production h2 2024:

"With an estimated 20-month construction period for Module 1, we could be commissioning the plant in the second half of 2024. At this stage, we have every expectation that we will meet this target.”

In another post I now see they hope to have funding finalised in q1 2023 and now have indicative debt term sheet. It is going to kick off nex year.

My expectation is no dividends ever as we get taken out ages before. But given that ebitda from 2 lines is more than todays mcap, half of todays mcap as dividend is not impossible from Araguaia alone. 50p is possible I think - 2.5p in old money from line1+2. Remember debt is less than ebitda with 2 lines....