Member Info for wasarunner

I bought some anyway. I like a flutter....

But you can equally have a reverse macro situation at any point - the most obvious example I can think of is an end to the war. (By the way I don't think it is imminent but that could happen any day). That would be a big adrenaline shot to the market and you would want to be invested when that happens.

As picked says if you are invested the short term price doesn't matter so much. If it is 125p in January so be it. Surely most of us are here for £3-6 in 2-3 years time. (As it happens I'm hoping for a pullback as funds land in Feb!). GLA

Agree with the negative sentiment we are due an update but just on one point - Emma was clear Homase wasn't going to fund Akrokeri it would need separate funding. The key being of course not to fund from equity certainly at these levels. They need to get Homase producing properly before embarking 'properly' on Akrokeri (IMO). Doesn't prevent a drilling campaign to establish the resource but before that project gets finance they need to be producing at Homase so our shareprice is substantially higher than where it is today. Agree silence isn't great for confidence. GLA

>>Share holder returns could be delayed for some years
Nope. Existing shareholders will get their returns in 2-3 years from today from the sale of the business. It is a given and if it is your expectation that it happens in that timeframe then there is no delay. There was never going to be a dividend in year 1 of production anyway. I'm very comfortable with the timesecale for the returns.

I guess I considered 'commissioning' as producing even if it is just test samples. It's a lot more than we produced in 2018!

Does anybody remember the old picture on the website with the gazebo a few chairs and a couple of jeeps being the 'mine site' of Araguaia? It looked quite different on the latest update! Very exciting...

Interesting about placing prices I've always ignored them but it does appear they are significant after the event acting as both psychological support and barrier to further rises. Of course experienced traders understand this and use it in their trading analysis. So for e.g. after the 90p placing for a good while we were in the 85p-93p range. No real reason we should have been there (and not lower, or higher) but there we were. Now we have reached the 140p area and what's the significance of that price - it should be literally nothing as there are a shedload more shares in issue than post the main financing deal happened so 7p then maybe reflected the value of the company it really shouldn't be exactly 140p now.

But this is how human psychology works. It will be interesting when the next move happens (there is probably a chart term for it) to the upside I expect because the new level should better reflect the value of the mine as it won't be a speculative level based on a speculative finance deal (which is what 10p pre finance was) it should be a valuation based on the economics of the producing mine. I'd really like to think we will see £2 in Q1/Q2. As such I do think we're cheap at 140p but maybe we sit here a bit and consolidate which is not bad thing.

Have a great break everyone and see you all in the new year when hopefully we become a producing miner - a thing I first dreamt of in 2018! GLA

>>Another 0.1% of total shares snapped up by IIs from weaker hands. Vast majority of shares now with IIs. HL PIs now down at 4%.

But not necessarily because they are selling. Why? At the latest significant shareholders update HL investors held 12.9m shares. Pre consolidation that equates to 258m shares. Pre consolidation/finance deal we had 1.45bn shares in issue so the current holding pre consolidation pre dilution would represent 17.8% of the company. So have HL investors sold? Probably not loads and same for Interactive Investors investors. The shareholding % as a percentage of the overall company has mainly dropped because the funding rounds x2 were not available to PIs.

I was actually surprised how strong the PI shareholdings are holding in the last update. Some of the selling in the last year has been the non sticky II holders - and plenty sold the 7p raise (are Maven out yet and good riddance?)

'Jeremy what will the shareprice be in 2 years time when all the PI's want to exit?'

I think you are onto something. They must be drilling the second mine to enable them to mothball the first one.

I thought that and added at 5p :) not working well at the moment. I think principals have too much skin in the game here and patience is all that is required. But I could be wrong DYOR and all that.

3% is ~8m shares which ~£12m GBP at current SP, if my maths is right.
So that's the number a 'new entrant' needs to buy to declare a TR1. Well they ain't having any of mine!

Every time the share price rises, you convert to 'old money'. I'll still be converting when we get sold. 7.2p at the moment so even Orion is making a profit now....

I'll take my chances here. Horizonte (where DJ sold up in disgust) is managing c. 5p a day rise at the moment, that's £25k a day for me. One day it could be Goldstone. You can believe what the chairman said in the interim update (setbacks yes, recoveries improved targeting 7koz this year but excited about Akrokeri) or you can believe the doom and gloom but in the absence of any concrete facts that there will 'need' to be a placing (placing for expansion being a different thing). Absence of news is not always bad news. Patience is also a thing. When I spoke to Emma in the summer she said it was hard to get assay results done because the majors were hogging the slots and the rigs and Goldstone was behind them in line. But why would they be drilling Akrokeri if they weren't pretty confident on Homase? But I could be wrong, been wrong before (I have held, at various points, MODE, ARB, PERE, ZAIM, ODX, EUA, BKY, which are mostly now tanked). Will GRL be one of these or a HZM. We will find out next year I guess. In the meantime 5p is very cheap if we become a decently sized commercial producer of gold. GLA

If anyone thinks Horizonte can stay independent, please show me another nickel junior with 4m tonnes of nickel inventory (which is equivalent to 1 year of 100% global supply) which is independent. Going into a golden decade for the metal. Impossible. Also - Glencore aren't just upping their stake at every opportunity (buying Teck's shares, participating in the financing round) just for fun. All IMHO :)

sorry just re-read the question (never was any good in school):
a) 5.00 (mid 2025)
b) 3.50

a) 3.50
b) 5.00 (mid 2025)

Anyone done a calc on NPV @$33k/t. I think it would be 'large'.
EBITDA at that level on line 1 is around £300m GBP. That's the same as the debt on the balance sheet :)

Still only valued at ~25% of Araguaia Line 1 NPV. There is certainly a 'gap' to fill above to full value. GLA

September 30 half year report:

"The Company has produced 4,095 oz of gold to date, and whilst the Company continues to target production of 14,000oz by the end of 2022, in light of the circumstances described above the Board's minimum expectation for production for the year is revised to 7,000oz. A review of the production schedule to the calendar year-end and beyond is ongoing and further updates on production will be provided in due course."

It sucks but it is what it is. At current gold prices and assuming they can get to target recoveries, if they produced $14koz next year I would make 10-15p a par for the SP. 20-25koz I make 15-20p. So yes it is cheap at the moment but always supposing they can get the target output.

One thing I really like about Goldstone is that they are (nearly) debt free. That's how you can ride the bad production results because as long as you can cover opex, there is no debt to service. So many juniors in this position would be up to their eyeballs in debt -> miss one production deadline -> its whip around the equity holders for some cash = raise.

Goldstone may raise but if I understand correctly that would be to expand dramatically Homase production and/or Akrokeri. That isn't necessarily a problem but ideally they would do it from a much higher shareprice having Homase producing good steady state numbers first. I'd be pretty cheesed if they raised at current prices. GLA

Hi Strummer, I'm sure Rover will reply but in summary - original target for production for 2022 (which was the first 'full year of production' year was 22-25koz. Actual was - well at the last reporting 4koz and I think they are hoping for 7koz. Lots of problems, some of the companies making, some not. Of course, costs have massively increased so AISC has gone from $600+ to $1k+/Oz.

Like other shares there is a lack of confidence amongst investors in mgt, which I understand, and the comms hasn't been forthcoming because of course when a company doesn't do well it tends not to beat its chest about it. With 70% of the shares held by around 3 insti entities they don't feel the need to report every gram of progress and I guess that's not what people want. I've got quite a big position here and being patient with it. They are expecting drill results from both Homase pit 3 mapping, and Akrokeri (the other mine site a few km away with the supposedly higher grades). When I spoke to Emma in the summer she said getting rigs and assay results is difficult because the 'majors' in the region tie up all these resources and being Goldstone size it's hard to get a look in. But they had the drill going at Akrokeri and announced first results a couple of months back.