Member Info for wasarunner

if anything a prolonged nickel price boom makes Horizonte pre production more attractive to a buyer I would say - makes an early bid more likely? A major would be able to fast track A2 (and A3 and A4) and V and benefit from high nickel price much earlier than Horizone IMO...

Strummer agreed but the 2xDFS and producing mine are worth a lot of £££ - Orion know it, La Mancha know it, and they won't part with their shares cheap. Also with 2 world class resources it is inconceivable to me that there won't be a counterbid. 4m tonnes of proven nickel reserves and 1x major is allowed to walk away with it at lowest market price? Very unlikely. Clearly we'll be worth more as we proceed but to me, the promised land is this - Araguaia 1 commissioned and 2x DFS completed, A2 part financed. I can't see us getting further TBH but I think there is an awful lot of jam there. When? As ever I think now mid 24-mid 25. Variables at the time will of course be the prevailing nickel price (and forward nickel price) which might determine a viable sale price.

I chat to a few investors about Horizonte offline (a few who post here) and we're pretty agreed, soon it'll be time to think about where to put the money next because this will be cash at some point in the next couple of years. GLA

Also Strummer - I think the lassonde curve is only really for A1. So as we get closer to production we should start to be valued by NPV but also institutions will want shares as we de-risk. But the rub here is we are producing a DFS for not just an even bigger project, but yet another project (A2) which will double the capacity of the original mine. I don't have a crystal ball to predict what that will do to our mcap but when I spoke to the FD many moons ago he said the market will value a producing/near producing company with a DFS for another mine differently to a pre-production company which needs to raise cash (and hence the uncertainty of financing terms) for the mine.

So I'm hoping really we are 'lassonde curve squared' when those two DFS' land and I think anyone who wants to be in the game with Horizonte really wants to be invested before the end of the year as the three things come together at or around the similar timeframes.

Strummer - if the lassonde curve is a thing (I haven't held a mining share through it but I'm told it is), it is the next 12-24 months which will generate the returns. Would we have been best keeping all our original stake and/or buying back in on the recent low? Time will tell I guess. I'm happier diversified because things can still go wrong with an individual stock and/or a jurisdiction (as I found to my cost with my russian investment). So I have settled for less total return and diversification even if Horizonte goes on to be the big winner.

GLA and I do think 2023 will be a great year for this stock.

TG333

Two not on your list but have decent holdings AFAIK are pickedpeck and StrummerJones. Don't know what they've got though.

Also interesting what % of public shares are held by people who post or follow this board or have a mate that does!

I can't decide if I'm more excited about A2 DFS or Vermelho DFS. Horizonte's tweet today says the award of A2 DFS is scheduled for H1 2023. I'd expect the A2 DFS to be a lot more straightforward than the Vermelho DFS.

https://twitter.com/HorizontePLC/status/1610294292546834433

My feeling is we will get more value (or at least higher % of NPV) for A2 in the sale than V because the buyer will have to pay for it as if it were funded and we have the capability to build it ourselves. However, if the V NPV is mahooosive as you would expect, perhaps we will get more for that in a sale. In either case if both DFS' come in around the same time, surely a massive lump of value add at that point into our mcap...... -> Q1 2024 perhaps?

Current mcap: £400m
Revenue (from line 1 only at nickel $31.1k/t todays price GBP/USD 1.19): £380m

So we are trading at +/- 1x revenue and it can't be emphasised enough FROM LINE 1 ONLY. Which is mind blowing really!

yes me a) 500 b) 350 (I think can't remember)

I'm here for T/O or divi with most but will need to sell c. 1/5th mid 24 - mid 25 but expect T/O to happen around then anyway.

From the latest update on horizonte website ii and hl are 8.5% of the shareholding so then 4% are in other nominee accounts. I have c. 530k shares inc family or around 5% of the ii holding.

My cup and handle is now full of fizz - prosecco this year, next year it will be champers when we hit £5. GLA and happy NY!

Indeed I started a trend!

ON a side note if we finish at 145p today - I looked back we were 129.5p close end 2021. 12% up but what a rollercoaster it has been! Compared to the rest of my portfolio Horizonte saved the day - how dare I ever doubt it - and that even against the setback of the unexpected raise.

It is positive that the price is rising but I am hoping Q1 we start to see some institutional buying, from the volumes it's probably us PIs budging the price around a bit at the moment. I'd love to see some big funds taking up big positions next year that would really help I think. Ahead of the inevitable Glen/a.n.other T/O of course. GLA

I tried to buy a decent chunk, couldn't, gave up. We're producing gold (profitably), not the year we wanted, next two quarters I feel are critical - need to sort quantity & recovery rate and get something positive on Akrokeri. Really hope they don't do something now like try to run/expand before they walk, need to sort the current operation before embarking on another one....unless it's a simple 'truck the material for Akrokeri to process at Homase'.

my new money landed earlier than expected so added £50k this morning. Will it hold 140p area or fall back who knows but really hoping by the end of next year we are well into 200p+. Happy NY everyone and fingers crossed next year we see the kind of rerate (or the beginning of the rerate in any case) we expect, and Horizonte deliver a commissioning/commissioned mine on schedule and cost. GLA

I actually really like 2 things about the share - low debt, low float. On a whiff of good news we move. It could be a big divi player in years to come but obviously lot of hurdles to overcome before we get there. Gla

>> Goldstone Resources Ltd
>> 30 June 2022
>> With swift and decisive action by the GoldStone Board and management team, we were able to resolve these issues and increase gold recovery from the heap leach pads to over 60%.

So, you didn't read the RNS, or they lied in the RNS. Which is it?

HitOrBust good post (I recommended it) and fair points - notice it's your first post. If you don't mind me asking when did you invest in GRL? There are those that invested on the curve up when it promised much then I guess some invested over the last year or 2021. FWIW I invested at the 10p level first in the runup to first gold and it hasn't gone that well since (obviously) or we wouldn't be where we are. I've averaged down a bit since but my main holding is 10p area.

I bought Horizonte in 2018 expecting to be mining in 2020, it will be mining in 2024 a 4 year delay to my expectation, but will reward my patience handsomely. Grl not sure but I expected to be making money this year and haven't. I can wait till 2024-25 but better would be 2023. Lets see how next year goes - first year is always the hardest. Gla

Xeiger - agree 100%. We need news and we need it to be an honest appraisal of the situation and an honest appraisal of what comes next. Personally I feel we have had that to date - not the result we wanted and maybe not as often as we wanted but the company have communicated progress (and the setbacks). My issue is with someone essentially claiming the company is insolvent, can never make money, and state it as fact (as opposed to opinion) having sold up 6 months earlier. Sour grapes?

My opinion is just opinion and it goes like this: the company is still solvent, had setbacks in the first year of production (that's normal in engineering - speaking as an engineer), and so their original goals may take longer to achieve than they, or we expected. Are the major sharholders concerned? Are the debt holders calling the debt? And why are they drilling the second mine if the first mine is not self sustaining? My opinion (again just opinion) is that they will achieve them. Here is hoping that happens in 2023. GLA

BKT hope to have funding around Feb (from the last interview published). It follows that when funding lands the first bits they'll work on is infrastructure as they need the road anyway to build the rest. I'm expecting road builds etc H1 next year.

In case anyone is worried by DJs post I can dispel some wild speculation, having had indirect contact yesterday:
>>Operations in all probability are suspended pending funding.
This is b*****cks.
And:
An update will be issued on progress (indicative timeframe is in the course of the next week or two).
I'm not saying the update will be great, but speculating that anything has been mothballed is nonsense. The mine is running, I've been told.
Also as the other poster pointed out - if anything was mothballed they'd have to announce it anyway as it is material.
DJ is there any way you can ramble on rambler or somewhere else? Just saying mate. It's not healthy speculating on stocks you no longer own.
GLA