The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
>>the timeline will be a lot quicker than Q1 now mancha are in charge. they already know what they are going to do...just a question of getting the other 2 on board
100% agree. It will be quicker. They've had already 2 months to figure stuff out (since first RNS and lets face it they would have known about the problem earlier) and the engineering study will have been done and they will be reviewing it. Now they essentially hold the reigns this will proceed at the pace they dictate. If the number required is a very big number then of course, it could be a complicated deal which takes time to nail down. You still have to make sure the mine economics work with whatever debt/equity package is placed and all shareholders at the negotiating table (exclude PIs from this) will want to ensure that's the case.
tuan yes it could go to 0p, we get it. Are you buying or selling ;) If you're sure you'd want to be short of course. But I wouldn't like to be short on this at 10p. GLA
Administration is not impossible. We need to get used to that idea until we have clarity that it isn't going to happen.
Lets assume the big 3 are set on a course, Orion, La Mancha, Glencore. Anyone spotted the odd one out yet? Helikon haven't been sellling or the shareprice would already be 1p. They own 10% of the company albeit some are via more complex instruments. Do Helikon think it's going into administration? Might they have sold a few if it was or have they been guaranteed a part in newco?
I don't think it's going into administration. But I could be 100% wrong and I'll take full responsibility for my own investment if it does.
>.Market cant see how do they secure the fund at moment on RNS .
True to an extent yet secure the funds they will. Look at the guy at the helm:
Karim Nasr - Mr Nasr was Managing Partner and Co-Chief Investment Officer of La Mancha Resource Capital LLP (“La Mancha”), which advises La Mancha Resource Fund SCSp ...... During this tenure, he raised US$68bn in debt and equity and closed US$67bn in M&A transactions
So you don't put this guy in charge, presuming he has better ways of making La Mancha money, unless:
1. You are going to finance the mine
2. You see longevity in the deal - i.e. La Mancha aren't just here to rescue their $100m+ already committed because this guy could be doing business elsewhere. They are here to build Horizonte out into whatever they first decided they wanted, with Araguaia, with Vermelho.
Actually the market should be pretty confident that finance WILL be done what the market doesn't know is whether that is in the current corporate structure or a different one, and whether existing shares are worth 0p, 10p, 50p, or a different number. With this I do agree it is very difficult to make a forecast at the moment. But one thing I am pretty sure about is the mine will get financed and built - otherwise La Mancha would have walked away instead of taking on the reigns.
Doesn't mean administration isn't out of the question but I think it unlikely. They already have Orion and Glencore onboard enough to agree to the board changes so they can structure the company any which way they want now I can't see the advantage of taking it to administration at all. GLA
I would say todays announcement all but guarantees funding - the concern for PIs (especially entrants at £1+ and not 8p+) is what form that will take. I haven't really a clue, but the corporate structure hasn't changed at all through the management changes - Orion still own what they own, La Mancha what they own, Glencore what they own and the banks are still there.
So probability of finance deal just went up for me, there is 0% chance La Mancha would put their man at the top to not get finance - if they thought finance wasn't happening they would have walked away. Could go private - yes - was always a risk after the initial debarcle.
Rover I'm very much hoping for the kind of thing you are suggesting - boatloads of equity at 20p with perhaps some other forms of finance thrown in. It preserves some value for existing holders. As you say worse outcomes are possible.
I definitely wouldn't want to be short at 10p though, there's a lot more upside than downside if and when a deal is done.
Oh and personally I think this announcement accelerates a deal. La Mancha must be convinced finance is worthwhile to make this move. Why would they wait 4 more months to do that deal. Suspect a deal early Q1 and a restart asp. GLA
Jona - I think your assessment is fair. For existing holders invested at £1+ we're wondering if we ever see our money back but for new entrants, as long as finance happens, current levels are likely to be a bargain. There is a finite (I hope small) chance that finance doesn't happen. But a smaller probability than the doom mongers here suggest because as you say too much money has already been spent. What shape the finance deal takes is going to be critical of course (as is the prevailing/forecast nickel price) which will likely influence the deal.
Strow - no issue with negative positions and no issues with traders and traders (both long and short) talk their positions - I have no issue with that. What I like to call out are, lets call them people, who post overtly negative comment without stating a position. So - if cont was short, said so, I'd have a lot of respect for getting that call right even if the repetition is a bit tedious and I do have him on filter. Recently there were two posters on this board who have no stated position, no stated intent to enter a position, appear out of the blue when the stock is distressed, and suggests others should bail while they can. Like don't get me wrong, I do like total strangers being concerned for my financial welfare especially as I do believe it to be genuine concern, but.......you got to call the boiler room what it is IMO. GLA
Didn't answer the question. Being here since 2014 is great. How may horizonte shares did you buy, or sell? So you think its garbage and going to administration I get it. So you're here so I can save what money I still got by selling my shares? I appreciate your concern. Or why.....?
Tuan I'll make this really easy. Hoe many share you own? Hint - its an integer number (or 0). I own 600,000. You?
>>What will happen after 15/12 when they said run out of fund ? As they are working hard to find the fund to build the rest ofine. As time of this year not finishea as they planned. If they cant find the requested fund what will happen to the share?
So I repeat the question whoch you clearly don't understand? Why do you care? Are you long, short, neother, or considering either. As you don't answer any question I will assume neither, you are a paid bot, and that's fine, as long as everyone here can see what it is.
Muck yes I mix threads apologies for that. I use the site on the non threaded view. A fellow investor suggested the conversion before the october rns was 'in the know' but it makes sense. If I had worked my socks off to deliver a mine and it looked like brown stuff was going to hit the fan I would do the same.
I've no problem with english and my post was tongue in cheek (english isn't my first language either). It's the motive I question. Literally no hint they they would buy, or sell it, and reads very much like not an investor but a paid plant. Repeat some negative line from the RNS then annotate with 'will result in suspension soon' etc. Yes could be short but unlikely.
Here's a thing. Tsinghan benefit if Horizonte doesn't go into production. That's 3.5m tonnes less non Indo-Chinese production on the market.
Muck - I wondered that and assumed somebody knew bad news was coming (not BOD level but maybe one of the senior guys on the ground in Brazil), exercised and sold. Perhaps a bit naughty perhaps not depends what level they were and what they knew. Unlikely to be coincidence - you don't see many people selling 6 months before first metal was due.
What I'm acually windering is who pays you to post. Because your agenda is different to people who want to buy or sell, that's obviousl if it's meant to be subtle, trust me, it isn't.
Yes, all of that. So you buying or selling (my guess - neither)
Tuan6 how come you still here? buy buy or sell sell or fear spread good? do your chinese plants always come in on time and on budget for friend no longer here asking for....just wondering how you came on here 35% more times than before the shareprice crashed wondering just am.
>>How far apart these sites are, i don't know. Maybe the more clued up can shed some light on this.
We're in the middle of it, I think:
http://armadalecapitalplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Beaufort-note-on-Armadale-Capital-27.10.16-1.pdf
Green is them, red is us, Page 2.
The inevitable p&d its so tedious. But I guess while the fate of the company hangs in the balance and we have nearly 0 information on what happens next it passes the time.
The subject of my post is tongue in cheek of course. It is not a buy recommendation and should not result in the shareprice rising 2 pence in the next 29 hours.
The problem (as I see it) can be boiled down to:
1. the company has great assets but it's existence, or the existence of current shareholdings is assumed to be heavily uncertain.
2.at least some trust in the BOD has gone (from many existing holders at least).
So to answer the question 'why did Fidelity sell up' it could be because of 1. or it could be because of 2. or it could be because of 1. and 2.
So the question becomes - lets assume 1. resolves, to some extent, and lets assume that 1. is resolved with the current management team in place. What then? Will the company be able to do more deals on A2, will the current mgt team be left in place to complete A1 build? Or have the cornerstones lost patience and will they be looking to make changes?
My feeling is the current mgt team will get us through to a deal and a deal of some sort will materialise then after that I don't know what happens. But those factors explain the shareprice and I can't see a significant rate upwards until the picture becomes clearer on 1. above.
Cotnerstones have to be inside if they are negotiating - ie can't buy right now?
I took a degree of comfort that the three cornerstones wpuld all have to agree a bad deal and thry wouldn't as the thing that saves us I still feel that. Apart from the fact that they have 3 wallets thry also don't want the other to do better so they will all want a slice (if the deal is done). Then the only really bad outcome is sewing it up between them but hopefully doesn't come to that, not if thry want to maintain liquidity and stock market listing etc.
My position is c. 600k+ I bought at £1+ average with 100k odd at 70-75p area. Breakeven may seem far off and might have to be happy with lower than that but baby steps we need the company to get through to q1 and do a deal - I think/hope they will. Personallly think anyone buying this range up yo 20p+ is going to do very well (unless they lost it all first of course!)