The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Nice to get a mention for Hvivo in this quick Q&A-style article from the BMJ published yesterday - https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n515
Good to see a quote from the Wellcome Trust at the end there as well - although Charlie Weller is specifically talking about the Covid-19 challenge model, CF said in one of his interviews back in November that their new (at the time) collaboration with Wellcome meant they could bring additional challenge models into the portfolio relatively quickly.
He gave a 2 - 3 month timeframe for the malaria challenge model, so we could potentially get news on that any day now, with pneumococcal and Zika to follow later too.
I submitted this question during the Shares Mag webinar a few weeks ago but it didn't get asked - does Imutex have a stake in the universal Coronavirus vaccine being developed by ConserV Bio?
As I understand it they're looking to 'detoxify' their funds by selling down any holdings associated with Neil Woodford.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/shares/invesco-draws-line-woodford-legacy-sale/amp/
Just published by the Telegraph:
Exclusive: Parents to test children for Covid twice a week
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/17/exclusive-parents-test-children-covid-twice-week/
"Parents will be asked to test their children twice a week under plans for a phased return to the classroom, The Telegraph can disclose.
Families of secondary school pupils will be asked to administer lateral flow tests at home during term time under plans being drawn up by the Government."
Twice weekly testing for potentially every secondary school child in the country. That's a lot of LFTs!
Actually we were briefly over £100m back in May, so CF could be counting from then. Big few months ahead regardless.
£100m to £200m market cap was roughly from September to now, so about five months.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-challenge/uk-gives-go-ahead-to-expose-volunteers-to-covid-in-medical-trial-idUSKBN2AH17H
Just published by Reuters too with Hvivo named - the article will likely now be syndicated to a lot of other news groups. Great coverage!
Questions:
Key man risk for ORPH - would you consider extending your lock in period?
Absolutely, I've never sold shares, my plan would be to buy more. Plans ahead for this year are so exciting, I have no issue. I will not be selling shares any time this year, but will be increasing if I can.
When will we see first contracts for Disease In Motion?
We could have announced several deals already, looked at exclusive rights for one bidder but decided against it and looked for multiple partners. This part of the business could be IPO'd into its own large business. Possibly considered as a fourth non-core asset. Every wearable company will want involvement as data not available elsewhere.
What studies run at new challenge facility? Not negative pressure.
Only Covid needs negative pressure. Ethics approval for Covid in not too distant future, very optimistic on this. Studies will then start immediately - huge studies for UK Gov. Traditional challenge studies can be done in new facility.
Has genomic data part of ORPH been shelved?
Challenge studies are bringing in rare disease work. Database is growing. Makes it a more interesting and attractive part of the business - it has absolutely not been shelved. Complements infectious disease database well.
Gov revenue - accounted for this year or last year?
Some last year, some this year.
Share price - why is it static?
Clearly Invesco are selling down after 10 years. Chinese friends may buy them out after call tomorrow morning (!). Exciting 6 months coming up, share price will 'see some serious action'.
Broker note from Finncap - doesn't include revenue from new facilities. Is this suppressing SP?
CF can't comment on the Finncap note, but as largest shareholder he wants to see guidance from brokers much higher. Finncap weren't that involved in third facility discussions.
Dividends?
Plenty of cash in the bank, some will be paid out, but bigger dividend will come from non-core assets. All three are close, one much closer than others. Update to come on imminent dividend in specie.
Cash in October - c £22m, with £1m a month added - why a drop in cash balance?
Repaying Venn loan.
Any thoughts on USA clinic or overseas?
We could have fourth clinic, 100 bed hotel, minimal cost and not far away - no benefit to going overseas when it could be done in UK.
Some notes from CF's presentation just now. I asked three questions but none of them got asked - I bet there were loads for ORPH this evening.
- New Senior VP of Clinical Operations hired from SGS - frees up CF's time for business development - and new NED
- Confirmed profitable, more profit generated every week now
- Negligible debt - legacy debt from Venn acquisition gone
- 'Disease In Motion' digital platform under development with applications for wearables - almost a standalone business
- 'Actively working towards monetisation' of non-core assets
- Challenge studies more important as more of global population is vaccinated
- Company is not Covid-dependent, bigger opportunities from remainder of challenge study portfolio
- More contracts to come for next-generation Covid vaccine testing
- Two new Flucamp volunteer recruitment centres opened in past month as already RNS'd - 520 volunteer per week capacity
- More pop up centres to come
- New 19-bed quarantine clinic across the road from existing Whitechapel facility as RNS'd today
- Client paid for conversion and first year of rent, but this client will only be using 20% capacity for first year - 80% capacity remaining for other work
- DIM digital platform includes clinical, immunological, virological and digital biomarkers - biggest database of its type in the world for infectious disease progression data for multiple diseases
- Every vaccine manufacturer in the world contacting Hvivo
- 7am call tomorrow with CF and 7 CEOs of Chinese vaccine manufacturers and Chinese regulator (I think I heard this correctly?)
- One of the three non-core assets - hoping to have a very positive announcement very soon, other two coming soon after
ConserV are joint partner, 'more or less' a rebranded SEEK
- Nothing can happen to FLU-v or AGS-v without Imutex's permission - 'rest assured' assets will be monetised
- A month behind schedule with PrepBio divestment
- "A really exciting couple of months coming up"
It also seems strange to me that CF would want to keep the share price 'under control' as it were, but then also put out a video at the end of 2020 saying he thinks ORPH can fairly easily reach a billion dollar market cap.
I couldn't see this article already posted, sorry if it has been posted elsewhere and I missed it:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/more-than-half-of-over-75s-now-vaccinated-says-nhs-chief-kpdtq0kjj
Interferon gets a mention under possible treatments, no mention of SNG specifically though unfortunately.
'Covid-19 could become a “much more treatable disease” over the next six to 18 months, the head of the NHS said yesterday, raising the hope of returning to a “much more normal future”.'
'Interferon
Produced naturally by the body, it plays a part in mobilising the immune system. There are hopes that boosting levels in patients can help fend off the virus.'
I didn't think you were arguing Barwickman, apologies if my reply sounded like that! Agreed though, also happy to wait - so much news coming (hopefully very) soon. Looking forward to the update on the webinar next week.
Metaltiger - I'd completely forgotten about the additional facilities! Hopefully CF will be able to 'excite and bemuse' us on the webinar if not before.
No harm in asking - CF's previously talked about institutions top slicing and so on so I'd be interested to hear if he has any comments on Invesco.
Personally I'm less bothered about that than I am about Imutex, universal corona vaccines and multiple deals for wearables data - I think any suppression of the share price we're seeing from IIs selling down will be massively outweighed by the gains we'll see from an Imutex sale/listing and a tie up with a major brand like Apple, Google or Amazon.
Been thinking about questions for the webinar next week - as well as an update on the IIs selling down and seemingly no new ones coming on board, it would be good to get clarification on:
Have Covid challenge trials commenced following MHRA approval? You've previously said this would not be RNS'd as regulators don't like it but media coverage suggests they have been approved.
What is the relationship between Imutex and ConserV Bioscience, and what does Imutex own out of the vaccine pipeline published by ConserV?
Is the universal coronavirus vaccine being developed by ConserV based on the FLU-v vaccine IP, and does Imutex have a stake in this corona vaccine? Is this the same vaccine as the 'seasonal' coronavirus vaccine Imutex have been investigating?
The divestment of Imutex was on track for 'February or so' late last year - is this on schedule and can we expect an outcome this month (February)?
Any news on PrepBio and the influenza immune modulator?
Are all interested wearables manufacturers still in discussions with ORPH about licensing the company's data, and how close are we to an announcement on this?
Are you still on track to finalise malaria challenge study model within the next month, as indicated back in November?
It's definitely very unclear, the Seek site suggests both yes and no, but Imutex.com makes no mention of an HIV vaccine.
The pipeline graphic on http://conservbio.com/ specifically calls out Flu-V and AGS-v as being 49% owned by Imutex, but the HIV vaccine next on the list has no link made to Imutex or Hvivo.
Thanks PadRock, I hadn't realised that.
Agreed though Daygrow - would be good to get some clarity via an RNS on Imutex/ConserV either way.
It's possible that the ConserV broad spectrum Covid vaccine is based on Imutex's Flu-v, in which case Imutex/ORPH would surely retain a stake.
The ORPH website has said since early 2020:
"Imutex’s proprietary peptide modelling platform could have possible uses in identifying a peptide for use in a Coronavirus vaccine by using the successful FLU-v vaccine but swapping out the universal flu peptide with a peptide specific to COVID-19."
CF also mentioned in one of his recent Q&A sessions that one of the reasons for the delay in progress on Imutex is because they potentially have a Covid vaccine in the works.
There was a thread on here a long time ago on whether the HIV-v vaccine is part of Imutex - does anyone know the answer?
The Seek website says:
"The fourth spin-out was Imutex Ltd, a vaccines development company with products in development for Zika, Malaria, HIV and influenza."
On Imutex's own website though, there is no mention of any work on an HIV vaccine as far as I can see.
Will ask the question on CF's next webinar if not.