Shares Magazine just emailed the links to the presentations, not sure if it's the same as the June one - https://media.moneyam.com/a/2020/09/3-Open-Orphan-Cathal-Friel-v2.pdf
They've not published the recording of last night's webinar yet, think it's normally a day or two later, so might not be til next week now.
Here's the link to the Proactive one from a few weeks ago I mentioned though - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDtwXyF61eE
Cheers all, glad the notes were useful.
Agreed Weathergeek, very interested to see how the wearables licensing turns out.
Just had another quick listen to the wearables part of his Proactive interview from a few weeks ago, all sounds very promising:
"We knew our data would be valuable but we never realised how valuable"
"One or two wearables brands have approached us"
"We are the only company globally that can provide this data"
"We will do a deal with just one of the companies" (i.e. exclusive rights)
"One off deal option to the highest bidder for data, for use solely in wearable health trackers"
Add that to Imutex, challenge studies, Prepbio and everything else, and Q4 looks very exciting for ORPH.
Had a lot of practice watching Open Orphan presentations!
Questions
Can you convince a new investor why they should invest in ORPH at this level when every bit of news gets sold into? If IIs don't believe in the company, why should we? Should you have had a few big shareholders rather than multiple IIs with relatively smaller holdings?
--- IIs are not selling out completely, they are just top slicing. Not a lack of confidence in what we are doing, they are keeping the bulk of their shares. SP has almost tripled in 6 months. Holders can trade in and trade out if they want, but sellers at 13p or 14p might regret it by Xmas. Judge ORPH by results, not by selling activity
"Sensational news coming soon" mentioned in previous presentation - any update?
--- Watch this space, more news to come. Timescales condensed, what normally takes two years we've done in five months
Imutex - any update in last couple of months? what is the most likely scenario, i.e. cash sale or Nasdaq listing?
--- 6 month process from July, aiming for before Christmas for outcome. CF didn't really elaborate on most likely outcome, Nasdaq vs sale, just "one or the other"
How many of existing 10k records are available on database for interested parties to purchase?
--- "Vastly more than 10k" records available. 5 biggest companies in wearable space have been invited to bid - highest bidder obviously wins. Guideline for pre-Christmas for "very positive" announcement here. The aim is to keep generating as much additional revenue from database beyond wearable licensing. CF was very optimistic regarding the potential.
What has been the response on Quotient testing ?
--- response is pretty good. "Read the news today" (?)
Any concern about ethical coverage of challenge studies? Any regulatory hurdles expected?
--- Not particularly. Business is heavily regulated. 'Watch this space' in next few weeks. Very much work in progress and very much coming close to a positive resolution
Any updates on Prepbio?
--- Work in progress, 64% ownership for ORPH, looking for disposal by Xmas
Made some notes during the webinar just now. Was struggling to keep up at times so please correct any mistakes or add anything I missed. Very positive overall still, sounds like we just need a bit more patience for some of the big developments.
Intro with regard to share price:
- Reiterated aim of 50% SP growth every 6 months or 100% every 12 months
- Institutions top sliced for 20 - 30% gain in some cases, but there is no big seller. Some 'great' institutions still on board
- CF still unable to sell his stake, locked in for further two years
Main presentation:
- Now generating cash, no more losses in H2 2020
- Virtually every large vaccine producer is either former or current customer of ORPH
- CF believes we are at the start of a decade of focus on vaccines and 'vaccine growth'. "Exceptional" growth forecast for next five to ten years
- Cash balance growing, interims out in week to ten days from now
- "Don't get too excited" about interims as they cover H1
- Hvivo clinic will be fully booked for up to two years in advance, in a month or two from now, and the company will be looking for additional quarantine clinic space
- Emphasised again, no more fundraises
- Aiming for one contract per month, would "put a smile on CF's face" if he can stick to that, hinted at least one more to come in September
- Slide said "there is a possibility" for 6 covid challenge study contracts this year and a further 6 next year
- "Pretty darn close to announcing something" with regard to challenge studies for Covid, great progress being made
- Early next summer there will be multiple vaccines for Covid but only effective for one year
- World's largest database of disease progression data, getting interest from wearable health tracker manufactuters. ORPH is actively working with them, expecting to announce before the end of the year a licensing deal for this data with one of the big players - approach from wearables manufacture was unexpected
- Prospect pipeline remains at £160m, CF said "watch this space"!
- Expecting significantly higher cash balance at Christmas. Any excess cash will be handed back to shareholders
- Target for end of year for sale or listing of Imutex and PrepBiopharm
Passer - the original plan was to sell up towards the end of this year, but CF has said in previous investor presentations that as things have changed so much with Covid, the plan is still to sell but probably not as soon as originally planned. I've not heard him be any more specific than that on new timescales for a company sale.
Some brief notes I made during CF's presentation just now. Great news on the wearable health trackers and upcoming trading update.
-----
Recent RSV contract was from Pfizer - company was previously unnamed.
How many records in genomic database? - We have the world's largest database of infectious disease progression data and it is still growing. We know exactly what happens to heartbeat, temperature etc. when you get influenza for example. Approached by 'household names' along the lines of Google, Apple etc. wanting to use this data in their wearable health trackers. Can't name them yet but more news to come soon.
Trading update coming end of September, covering H1. However CF expects the more exciting news to come after the trading update is released.
Reiterated that everything in the company is for sale, notably the genomic health data and Imutex.
Aiming to double the share price every 6 - 12 months, not aiming for the sharp 5x rises seen by other 'covid stocks'.
Mentioned an upcoming dividend but did not mention timings.
Very interesting news about ORPH being approached by the likes of Apple, Google etc. wanting to use the company's data for their "wearables".
Haven't been keeping up with the board this weekend, apologies if the same story has already been posted but the Telegraph have just published this.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/23/four-million-people-could-tested-daily-covid-19-early-next-year/
"Up to four million people could be tested every day for coronavirus by early next year under ambitious plans to further ease restrictions and boost the economy, the Telegraph understands."
"The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) is looking at alternatives methods that could provide faster, cheaper and more easily administered tests.
These include a rapid test that can return results in just 20 minutes, a test based on saliva, and DNA “nudgebox” machines, 5,000 of which are to be rolled out across hospitals in the UK to analyse DNA in nose swabs and produce results in 90 minutes."
Hadn't heard of Codagenix before, interesting Bloomberg article here about how they work and some of their backers.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-26/jim-simons-backed-codagenix-is-developing-a-coronavirus-vaccine
Nice little data visualisation on the vaccines I just got in my inbox - https://www.chartr.co/newsletters/2020/7/22/the-vaccine-race
Already three Chinese vaccines at Phase III stage.
It's a screenshot from a LinkedIn post published earlier this evening
Not sure what to make of a couple of the answers.
CF previously said they'd been inundated with requests from employers for the antibody testing, now they're apparently taking a bit longer to secure longer deals with these companies.
Now saying up to five months for an outcome on the Imutex question, whereas I'm sure he'd previously said by the end of the summer.
CF said he'd be very happy with £200m for Imutex in a sale, so just under £100m for ORPH's shareholders, but previously indicated that he expected it to be 'at the upper end' of the £100m - £500m range that Themis was apparently sold for. I guess this one's a bit trickier without the actual sale price of Themis being known, and he may be underplaying it with the intention of then 'overdelivering'.
Any thoughts? Still sounding very positive overall I'd say.
Made a few notes as CF was answering questions just now:
Targeting operational profitability by Q3 2020 - will this be RNS'd?
- 'thereabouts' profitable at the moment, previously talking about profitability in the past tense, now current tense
Can you give shareholders insight into antibody testing - 3000 tests x £100
- supplementing antibody testing with PCR testing and 'other' testing. Taking a little longer to approach large employers in search of long term, month-to-month testing contracts covering multiple tests rather than short term one-off contracts just looking at antibody tests. More news on this later in the summer
Can the quotient machine provide aGen and aBody test from the same sample?
- no, antibody only from blood draw
Aren't challenge studies for covid far too dangerous?
- Absolutely not. CF is very happy to be first volunteer for challenge study. Doctor watching the whole time, rescue remedy given. Safer to get covid in a lab with 10 - 20% viral load compared to in community with up to 100%.
Any approaches about selling Flu-V vaccine?
- See slide 20. Not waiting to be approached, making it clear that they are looking for a buyer. 3, 4, 5 months for outcome Nasdaq vs sale.
How close to selling Imutex?
- By year end. £100m is a possibility, so £49m for ORPH's share. £200m would be "very nice" - "I don't think it's worth much more than that".
Is there to be a PrepBio deal with a Chinese company? No news since last mention.
- deals take time. Keen to monetise it. Talking to other shareholder of PrepBio, discussing sale or vending into a listed company.
Have brokers indicated how much Acacia have left to sell?
- Our calculation is that Acacia are "pretty much done". Pointed to immediate positive impact on share price when IP Group finished selling at the end of April. Expecting similar when Acacia finish.
Any further fundraises expected soon?
- Absolutely no chance. We are now cash generative. We will be handing cash back to shareholders over the next few months, rather than the other way round.
You should be able to sign up and join here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/340/zyyogsp0
If Imutex is listed rather than sold off, isn't the idea to then find a partner to fund the next stage of trials for Flu-v (and presumably AGS-v as well)? In which case, surely the question of fast tracking is still relevant?
https://hvivo.com/hvivo-announces-a-joint-venture-investment-with-the-seek-group-to-develop-vaccines-against-flu-and-zika-infections/
Just noticed on this press release from when Imutex was created that it says:
"Depending upon the outcomes of these studies, Imutex may also pursue Fast Track designation for these vaccines."
Results for Flu-v and AGS-v published recently both sound very positive - anyone with a pharma background know how likely a fast-tracking would be based on the trials so far?
It says on that link:
"In conjunction with Imutex, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases launched a first-in-human Phase 1 trial of a mosquito saliva peptide vaccine..."
So it sounds like Imutex chose to partner with the NIAID for the phase 1 trials, and Jessica Manning is the NIAID physician leading the study.
https://hvivo.com/hvivo-announces-a-joint-venture-investment-with-the-seek-group-to-develop-vaccines-against-flu-and-zika-infections/
Mentions that Phase 1 trials are going to begin in that Bethesda clinic, definitely Imutex's vaccine in that Lancet article. Sounds very promising!