I'd say CF is pretty good at delivering what he's promised and very good at communicating updates to shareholders - definitely not just hype in my opinion. With so much of his own money tied up in ORPH he's got every reason to maximise the share price. Even with the dip over the past couple of weeks, the share price is still up well over 100% in three months, with much more to come.
No, Venn Life Sciences, a division of Open Orphan, has signed the contract with a major pharma - presumably unnamed because of an NDA.
The exec chairman Cathal Friel said in a recent investor presentation that they're dealing with some of the biggest pharma companies in the world who want to use their services, and Open Orphan looks more attractive as a partner to these big pharmas with more cash on the balance sheet, so ORPH is now in a better position when negotiating (or words to that effect). The cash balance at the time was around £2m before the raise.
Obviously a complete guess, no one knows what'll be announced next!
The AGS-V results being published in the Lancet was mentioned a while ago but nothing since - could be news on that fairly soon.
I must have missed the bit where he said a new contract within a week, great news if we can expect an RNS that soon though, plus some others from major pharmas over the following few weeks. Exciting times for ORPH.
Made some more notes from the webinar questions just now. Fairly similar overall to the take-aways from the Proactive presentation the other day, but very interestingly this time CF mentioned he expects three new contracts with major pharmas to be announced within the next month. No confirmation on revenue from testing, but it sounds like the guesses floating around online aren't bad.
Asked what do you think is the most misunderstood thing about ORPH?
CF said the recent fundraise was unexpected – contracts expected with 3 of top 5 global pharmas within the next month. Cash balance makes the likes of J&J, Pfizer etc. more confident doing business with ORPH. £12m raised won’t be wasted.
Why didn’t you raise more if you could have?
CF said they dIdn’t want to raise too much. If they were to fundraise again (didn’t say this was going to happen, very much an ‘if’) more new shares would be made available to retail investors as the company values these investors. Mentioned that the company is always focused on original plan to cut costs and sell, not to ‘fall in love’ with any of the combined companies.
Open for business for antibody testing tomorrow – focusing on London and SE initially? Who are targets? Any contracts already signed?
Yes open for business tomorrow, reiterated 3000 per day capacity. Mentioned competition from Roche etc. Emphasised B2B nature of ORPH’s testing. Did not mention any contracts already signed.
Would there be demand for a second machine? Would you be able to get one?
CF said ORPH are hoping to hit 3000 per day which is a great target but CF believes they wouldn’t have any trouble getting a second machine if they needed one.
Can you give a final per test price, and revenue share for ORPH on the antibody testing?
Couldn’t disclose exact price/revenue split but CF mentioned that there is a lot of ‘online guessing’ and the guesses he’s seen aren’t far off the mark. Also name dropped a number of companies who will ‘pay a premium’ such as J P Morgan.
Imutex deal structure – how would ORPH shareholders be treated?
Imutex is a non core asset but similar to Themis acquired by Merck for up to £500m. Carrying out strategic review of Imutex and looking to monetise in some way. Again literally invited Novartis to make an offer! Suggested that company would be worth ‘quite a few hundred million’ if it was vended into a Nasdaq listing.
The latest investor presentation and the incoming pipeline of work suggests ORPH has definitely not 'run out of road'. Lots more to come very soon.
If she's worked there as a lab manager for 19 years, losing her job over that tweet would be pretty extreme.
Cheers Andinio, couldn't believe it when my internet went dead at that point!
Some notes from the webinar questions, CF sounding as positive as ever. My wifi cut out briefly so I missed the answer to the one about Quotient testing for Scotland.
- Mentioned a 'major press launch in the next week to ten days' for antibody testing
- Asked whether company is still going to be sold at the end of the year as planned or has the end game changed - CF said the original 3x projection was before substantial change in landscape from Coronavirus. 'No way' will the company be sold for £100m now, it will be 'much, much higher'. Emphasised that the company is for sale, but maybe not as soon as originally planned - long pipeline of incoming work will add value
- Asked what effect he expects on SP tomorrow re: the placing shares - avoided this part of the question!
- Asked what plans are for cash raised - CF said ORPH has a current cash balance of around £2m, but is now dealing with multiple multibillion dollar pharmas, so extra cash on balance sheet puts ORPH in better position to deal with these companies.
- How many of 12 deals on the table is ORPH likely to win? CF said all of them!
- Still considering RTO in US? - CF said Imutex is as valuable if not more valuable than Themis which was recently acquired by Merck for up to $500m but price has not been disclosed. He's very keen to sell to Novartis, who may have been watching the webinar according to the host! Alternatively can put it into a shell company and list on Nasdaq - said this can be done "very quickly" but didn't give specific timescale
Yeah I was amazed they didn't issue one earlier today. Fingers crossed for one from ORPH tomorrow.
ODX have just issued an interesting one!
Coronavirus testing is just one part of ORPH's potential, and there is room for more than one testing provider anyway - demand will be enormous. You'd be crazy to sell ORPH now just because of ODX's announcement today.
Someone posted this on the ORPH board, apologies if this is a repost here:
https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/06/coronavirus-travellers-charged-190-at-vienna-airport-to-avoid-14-day-covid-19-quarantine
Puts the estimated price of the AVCT test into context.
RNS says first tranche 45m, second tranche 70m.
Interesting...
Maximise available Covid-19 opportunities including accelerating the development of both a seasonal coronavirus and a Covid-19 virus challenge study model to capitalise upon Group's inbound demand from Covid-19 vaccine developers globally. These challenge study models have the ability to speed up the development of a vaccine by 2-3 years;
o Ramp up Covid-19 antiviral testing to the Group's current capacity for 3,000 tests per day;
o Expand existing laboratory testing services to 3rd party pharmaceutical and biotech companies in line with our strategy of becoming a leading services provider to the growing viral, and respiratory diseases sector of the pharmaceutical industry; and
o Strengthen the balance sheet to enable the Group to take advantage of the significant and growing opportunities the Board believes are available.
Fairview as others have already said, ORPH will likely be targeting private healthcare (although any work from the NHS would obviously be a bonus), and wouldn't need much market share to generate a substantial amount of revenue for a company of this size.
There is plenty of room for more than one testing provider.