Member Info for vike1

20 million buys needed to push the sp up a bit yesterday, and 1/10th of that volume in sells to knock it right back down today.

I'm sure many are holding in an ISA, though for such a high risk stock like SOLO, it's not even necessarily the best strategy. For example, if the share price falls (or goes bust!) and you need to sell, in a normal trading account you can offset those losses against gains elsewhere. In an ISA, you don't get that benefit (though of course your upside is untaxed). Unfortuntately for us, almost every SOLO shareholder is underwater at these prices. If it stays here, you lose more in an ISA. Further, because ISA amounts are limited, you may be tempted to keep 'safer stocks' outside your ISA wrapper if they have less upside (therefore less future tax). But because Dividend taxes are so much higher than CGT (and don't have the �11.3k annual exemption) you'd be foolish to hold dividend stocks outside your ISA and wildcards like SOLO inside it. By trading outside an ISA, it's like buying a covered option where you give up some upside potential for less downside risk. To be clear, I'm not advising this strategy, but it is important to consider.

The trade-off between divident payout and repurchase is only neutral when the sp is fairly valued (and taxes impacts are negated). Who knows what level we'll be trading at once we have the luxury of making a payout decision. Hopefully it's so high that a repurchase doesn't make sense. Doubt it though.

I wouldn't assume most people are holding their share in an ISA. You couldn't even hold AIM shares in a wrapper until a few years ago. I also disagree about the dividend transferring value to shareholders point. Yes, it is more 'direct' but the transfer could be of lower value if BVPS is very low. As per the last point, it may not translate into an exact corresponding rise in the sp, but paying money out the door may disproportionately impact the sp as well for many reasons. Of course, some may prefer a special dividend, which is reasonable. That could be personal preference, ie 'bird in hand' theory. My MAIN POINT though is that the analysis should be undertaken. It is their fiduciary duty to do this, and explain how they came to their conclusion.

I was wondering how you managed to put �50k in an ISA account...

No doubt there are some disappointed buyers this morning, hoping to see an RNS this morning. The interesting takeaway is just how fast this sp can move, from even a suspicion of news. Time to recoil that spring...

Assuming a lucurative farmout deal is secured, and the company is sitting on excess cash, paying a dividend is not necessarily the best use of funds. If the sp, for example, is trading below BVPS, it will be more accretive to shareholders to instigate a share buyback program. It would result in better returns and lower taxes (that CGT rates are so much below dividend rates is one of the UK's biggest tax inconsistencies). The BoD would have to undertake that analysis... which would take all of two minutes.

If it is a buyer, he/she doesn't know what they're doing. If you want to buy in without jolting the sp, do it in smaller tranches over time. Don't just call up your broker one afternoon and give an order to buy huge quantities all within a 2 hour span. 'Hopefully' it's a leak and we'll get news shortly. Or, this sp is a tightly coiled spring that got jumpy with any hint of movement. If no news tomorrow am, will be interesting to see how this trades tomorrow. The start of a longer buying trend or just a one day wonder, as per above.

I think there's also a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines ready to get in at the right time. A bit of momentum then causes an overreaction.

Totally agree, bit of there is indeed news forthcoming, I'll be happy nonethelesss. Then again, it's not unheard of for this stock to have a few outlier big days so this could be short lived. Good volumes though.

Glad I wasn't the guy selling EOD Friday. Fundamentals remain sound.

We're back to the same place we were 2 months ago when we were at 50p. Lots of oil in ground and need to extract it. Minus a bit of cash, plus some better geological knowledge

Market should breathe a huge sigh of relief! Lots and lots of oil is there, no damage done and no damage to the reservoir, now we just need another go at retrieving it.

My takeaway from Malcy was, if they can't say anything about the deal, and there's nothing else to talk about, what was the point of the call?? Why would JB do it now? Must've been pretty short. Perhaps to warm him up for incoming news? Not sure, but from a distance it seemed a bit pointless.

Good showing! Nice flows and payment received on time, especially impressive during the rainy season when the country tends to favour electricity from hydro. The new guy coming in will be inheriting a much better story than if he joined a couple years ago. Now the trick is to avoid throwing good money after bad in MZ.

It's also hugely promising to see TPDC paying their bills on time -- even Tanesco are doling out some cash. This insecurity is a huge overhand on all companies working in the region. As this slowly gets removed, so too should the fontier-market discount applied to our revenue estimates.

It's disappointing to see we don't have KN1 onstream during a period of increased demand, we could be up to 20mmscf/d++ by now if we were. But remember the increase isn't a blip, it's the start of a long-term trend, rising steadily. That is only good news for us.... eventually.

Hopefully by 'tomorrow' you don't mean issuing an RNS at 4:30pm on a Friday...

Someone? Surely that's meant to be plural when talking about this stock!

Just getting back to my PC now. The premium/ discout depends on which part of the deal you're looking at. My comments on a premium relate to the Ruvuma transaction. To illustrate, currently Zubairs own 22.5% of Ruvuma (30% of AEX's 75% holding). If they buy an add'l 25% of Ruvuma, their AEX Ruvuma holding goes down by a third to 15% and they now hold 40% of Ruvuma. Therefore, they paid for an extra 25% but only increased their net holding by 17.5%, hence my reference to paying a 'premium.' Make sense? Perhaps your thoughts related to overall impact of value, which is murkier. Using another thought experiment, for simplicity if you assume KN1 and Nyuni are worthless (not far off as of today), our market cap of c.$100m is entirely due to Ruvuma. Zubairs therefore own $30m worth of the asset as at today. If they buy 25% of that for say $50m, AEX gets $50m cash in, 25% of Ruvuma goes out. AEX's net 50% holding is now worth $100m, plus we have $50m cash, so our market cap is now $150m. Zubair AEX holding now worth $45m (up from $30m) + extra Ruvuma holding - $50m cash outflow. Net balance may be up, depending on how markets react. Calculating future value of Ruvuma once proved up, etc. etc. is for another day. It's late, so some of the numbers may have gotten blurred, but I hope that adds to the discussion.