estimate9 Jun 2022 23:40
Apols, 4Princes. I was busy on PTAL with calcs being constantly revised.
I did some estimates on the Gwinville trio but they are way out as some hedging was presumed. As it turns out production is unhedged. A current guesstimate is -
3 x 1,300 = 3,900 x 30 = US$117k/day x 365 = US$42.7m p.a. minimum
[NB> on three wells only]
Several variables need to be added not least of them are 3 more multi-frack laterals coming online Q4, plus the remainder of existing inventory . . . in order to reach total gross revenue for the year. Also, remember all new wells will be constrained during startup.
American gas prices could go through the roof this summer; it means all calculations are null.
Whilst my average buy-in is low there are three points that override any future decision:
a) it is understood fellas in the City are eyeing up Gulf acquisitions;
b) rig bookings, and;
c) my target is amended to £3, no longer $3. Reaching it is another matter.
For interest my core p/f includes SOUC, i3E, PTAL, HMI, CHAR, SHG, THS.
The remainder are for tinkering.