Member Info for Vernony

I wouldn't say, PJ, that (FOGL) are asset rich at the moment. They are nothing without their backers, who will probably pull out altogether in the near future if the price of oil continues to drop and there is every indication that it will ! Rest of the Falkliands oil is also at risk, deep sea hostile waters at the bottom end of the globe and horrendous development costs

I wouldn't say, PJ, that (FOGL) are asset rich at the moment. They are nothing without their backers, who will probably pull out altogether in the near future if the price of oil continues to drop and there is every indication that it will ! Rest of the Falkliands oil is also at risk, deep sea hostile waters at the bottom end of the globe and horrendous development costs

I believe the forbearance is only until the end of this month so I am wondering if we get an RNS on Friday

Yes, I think you have it there, for the PI stocks are almost dead, with just few lucky breaks here and there. We are up against massive computers which sample movements within a mili second of them happening, almost share by share, and they do it all day and over two thousand, or more, different stocks. They can buy or sell on fractions of a penny rises or falls.I still believe that you are right about OIP though, the oil is there and has been proven to be so. This company made some fairly rash decisions based upon an oil price that most could see would have to fall with the advent of Shale. But, they have the pipes in the ground and the pumps on the surface and gas and oil....As you lament, it needs and oil company to come in, not a financial company - the latter's interest would probably be to break up CAZA and sell its parts off

I know they are frustrating to the PI, but MMs are a part of share dealing. They are not thieves or criminals, this is their business, in which us PI's is mostly inequipped to deal with. Well least I don't have computers sampling a couple of thousand sp's second by second. Generally speaking the PI has come in cheap and very early and is in for the long haul against future success. The Market Skimmer is in here for the day , or half day, or even an hour, picking up fractions of a penny where they can, and computers are often doing that for them. As such its probably best to buy the number of shares that you can afford to lose and just sit tight with an eye on the horizon and don't be pannicked by rises based upon non - permanent events. Long haul is probably at least two years ahead, if we don't lose the lot in the meantime

I have been castigated here for daring to point out that(IMO) the BoD might be better employed running a creche. They have hung out much too long, perhaps, again, IMO - because the people they are dealing would demand some resignation from the BoD ? By procrastinating they now have very few chips to bargain with and far from dilution, as they put it, the shares are now looking as if they will be vaporised

It's the big day to day, but no RNS, early buys suggest some people are confident

Seems the dealine is Monday, unless they can come up with something to pacify Yorkville, or they can obtain another extension

Renains to see if LSE will sanction this issue, probably no reason why they should not. So if they do, it will make Yorkville a significant share holder and they will want to turn it into profit . Its an incentive for them

hi Pablo. I don't think that I said, at all, that Appolo was impatient, but the dead line is the 15th if they are unhappy with the way negotiations twix CAZA and this unknown investor are going. Apollo have the right to foreclose but that would have been in an RNS today, because, as I read it, they need three days notice. So it looks like they will now extend, to their second option, until Nov 30th, so the possibility of a deal looks just a tad brighter, but not much ! Hope you got home alright !

Will Apollo permit entended forebearance until 30th November. If not satisfied with progress they will have issued their foreclosure note today, to become effective on the 15th November. In which case we should expect an RNS tomorrow

I just picked this up as an observation by Sierra Bravo on Interactive Investor which may help to build hopes a little . Whatever, if it is a equity transfer , then the transfered to, will want to see the shares rise over time, or it may be possible for company buy backs . I still have hope for this share , it is going to sink to the bottom, but from there on it ought to rise and may even see 5p in two years, or so The follow up RNS has occured. Still persuing and apollo showing signs of impatience. Extension for another month (at what cost?) and continuing attempts for equity investment to cover all the debt. With a mkt cap of 1 million GBP And debt of > $50 mln dollars that would imply new shares of something like 7 billion to clear the debt via equity. That is, as they said, significant dilution. The problem is that won't actually help that much. It would largely just maintain the status quo. It wouldn't give any capital for development. It would though, reduce the cost of servicing the debt which would at least theoretically allow the build up of some capital to develop the assets. If they do get an equity offer away then existing holders are going to be royally shafted, unless it is an open offer of some description. At least that give the choice of subscribing for some of the new capital. Apollo hold a lot of power, which does rather force Caza hand. The assets though are being carried at $75m, Leaves overall $25 m off after paying off debts so if the book valuations are realistic ther should be some chance of recovery in time. But the cas burn is constantly eroding that. and it is not a sellers market.

Well I like your assertion that this will be a recovery stock, but I can't see that you can dilute 0.475 very much ! Would love to agree that oil will recover in two years, but there are no signs that this will happen (short of hostilities in the NE) . The world is out of recession now so the oil price cannot be much affected by manufacturing . It has more to do with shale and that is not going to go away at any time in the next 40 years

I wonder what the value is of their proven and unproven sub-surface assets are ? (not the market cap !)

I presume by dillution they mean consolidation, or they are intending to swap debt for shares . But would they be permitted to issue that many shares ! If it is straight dillution it doesn't mean much to us who are already in, the object of the deal will be to turn in profits further down the line. I feel that dillution only bothers one if, say, the sp was 25 to 40p, in that case it could take years, if ever, to get back up to that . But with them hovering around .050-.070 ps, it should not take long to at last equal that if not overhaul it

Yep I agree with that, but some pundits (perhaps overstretched in oils themselves) tell us that oil will be above $70 in a year. can't see for what reason. I think their figures are based upon hope rather realism

Exactly you can't bet on the present rise in oil, there is tension in the Middle East that could easily spill over, they are probably betting in futures that the oil price will rise if the situation gets any worse

These buys are big but not large enough to be MMs or corporate, something seems afoot

Opinion seems to be split among the larger backers and sellers. Certainly the market skimmers would not be in here if they thought it would not rise a bit, so that tends to rule out sp manipulation. That is has risen a little then, seems to indicate that some of the larger punters are not too unhappy .

You are reading it wrong, it says nothing about withdrawing the shares, It says that share holders will suffer a significant dilution. Dilution is nothing if the company is solvent and selling, and not over extending debt again. The shares will pick up again. I suspect, for a while, that we may see 0,05 pence ps . I am disgruntled about the BoD, they seemed to have beeing trying to protect their jobs, against a failing company. IMO, if they had acted earlier the dilution would not be so much. I suspect though, at the back of the deal is a demand for a change at the top. No ill-store IMO :))