Member Info for Vernony

Well you believe what you wish to believe. The evidence is that the world oil price is going down. Originally the experts blamed it on the recession, but we are out of recession now and oil demand should be soaring, but it is not, so there has to be another reason and I suggest that logic, in this case, is a better guide than experts. Just a few years back America imported 25% of all of the worlds oil, now America intends to export oil and gas, then Iran looks like it may be permitted export oil and if Libya quietens down and IS is affecting Iraq's oil exports . If these three come back on line then there will be even more oil around . Of course there are uses for oil, but its moving from a seller's market to a buyer's market

But, the world is inceasingly needing less oil, its not that it is not useful. In America, for example, some cities have switched their trucks to run on Shale gas, is suspect that will become a avalanche with other countries in a few years.It doesn't take much thinking to realise that for the first time since records began, some countries can almost achieve energy secrutiy . They are not going to go back willingly to import oil from Arabia where they are subject to random price hikes and artificial restrictions to keep the price up, and having to deploy massive military assets to keep these countries sweet. You have already seen the effect of Shale gas upon oil and you are enjoying it too

Absolute tosh Kevin, LPG, with you get about 5% less mp litre from LPG, currently I pay just 62 pence per litre for LPG, so who is worried about 5% less ? Where the problem is that it costs about £2000 to convert to LPG, if you take the best system. Generally you have to run a car for about 3 years on normal milage before profit kicks in, but if you buy one that has already been converted that does not apply ! Well I am glad that you have found some experts who say that the price of oil will rise, it seems to run against the obvious that a direct result of Shale in the USA world wide oil prices have slumped . If they start to rise it will only increase the dash for gas . Oil is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The only way they could force up the price is to restrict the supply, but how long could they keep that up, espeically bearing in mind that there are oil producing countries that are not in OPEC, they would jump at the chance to fill any shortfall ! The world has been coming out of recession and has been for the past 18 months, yet, the oil price has gone lower and lower. So its nothing to do with the recession ! I have just picked up an independent bit from the internet regarding LPG. If it has cost you more, then there was something wrong with your installation ? Herewith quote:-Over the last year and 16,000 miles we have saved £800 in lower petrol bills – £650 after other costs are deducted – which means that over three years the £2,040 top-end "Prins" system installed on our Toyota Avensis 1.8 petrol estate would have roughly paid for itself. After some minor teething problems at the start, the car has run faultlessly since, and we have also done our bit for the environment because LPG – liquefied petroleum gas – is a much cleaner-burning fuel. Unquote

Couldn't agree more JS. I think King Oil has had its day. New kids on the block now. I run my car on LPG, its much cleaner than oil and more environmentally friendly, so I suspect that when Shale gas becomes universal there will be money made available to convert from petrol or deisel to run on gas. This to placate the green lobby and head off any reservations that they may have regarding fraccing. Meantime I would like CAZA to rise a bit more though and it probably will because they seem to have found quite a lot of gas. Having brought into CAZA initially at up to 25 pps . All in all, I need about 15 pps to get out of it : ((

Hi Pauline, Yes I suppose the low oil price makes it even more difficult to service debts which were taken out on the expectation of higher oil prices in the past (i.e. the standing debt liability expands as oil prices plunge). IMO, the prospects of this company are good though, but I feel a farm in/farm out, merger, or take over are on the cards. They desparately need the economies of scale which only a global company can provide . Short of a war or political act, though, I can't see oil topping $70 . Even China in,which most people seem to pin their hopes of sucking in oil and so pushing the price up, is planning pipelines for internally produced Shale gas. Oil is still on top at the moment, but increasingly, it will have to share the market with Shale gas, not forgetting all the green energy there is around too. Its no long 'all' measured in barrels !

Beware of EBITA, but regardless the SP charts have turned mostly blue, so the more adroit seem to have read something into this RNS. From the web:- A common misconception is that EBITDA represents cash earnings. EBITDA is a good metric to evaluate profitability, but not cash flow. EBITDA also leaves out the cash required to fund working capital and the replacement of old equipment, which can be significant. Consequently, EBITDA is often used as an accounting gimmick to dress up a company's earnings. When using this metric, it's key that investors also focus on other performance measures to make sure the company is not trying to hide something with EBITDA.

There you are then, there seems to be a sort tension around this share as if the expectation that something big is coming over the horizon

I just have a feeling, nothing factual to go on, that something is going to move dramatically with the share and very soon. Its go oil, its got territory in virtually proven oil bearing stratas . My teeling is takeover, but don't bet on it :))

So runs the scare stories the investment journals are putting out and have been repeated on here with a degree of gloom. However, as I pointed out its all a case of supply and demand and cost. So we now have drilling rigs prepared to work at much discounted prices per day than was the case a year ago. Journalists rarely home in on the whole picture but report on just a snap shot take on it

I think it all depends on their break-even point. Sometime back they were pretty upbeat about their low break-even point. Agree that oil will go a little higher but not the ramping press of $90, unless there is an increase in hostilities in the near East, but my feeling is it should make $70 pbrl and hover about there until even more Shale comes on line in the world

Not only is their growth impressive in the Q1 but I note Egdon's sp has gone up 52% since January. Its still not high but it seems to be an upward trend. If memory serves me well, then ALK own 40,000,000 shares in Egdon, the market does not seem to have conttoned to this link yet !

I am not too sure about that . Investment journalists have to write about something and sometimes they get alarmist, well they have to sell their columns don't they ! Yes there is too much oil slopping about and it is likely to remain that way. However, commonsense dictates that the USA is not going to permit its own oil fields to shut down in favour of keeping arab oil fields open. America has almost achieved energy independence. If the investment journalist stopped to think before he committed to paper, then there has to be a tipping point at which the American government will intervene to keep its oil/gas fields open, the shutting down of rigs is more pressure for that the happen sooner !

I really don't see why all this nonsense of reporting how many rigs are idle is all about ? The number of rigs in operation equals demand, or anticipated demand. Also, with the drop in the price of oil/gas many rigs will have been drilling on sites not now considered economically viable. Its just a matter of supply and demand. The questions 'Are there enough rigs in operation to meet current demand', and 'will there be enough rigs in the future to meet future demand' ? The facts are that the number of rigs in operation will increase as and when demand increases....its simpleeees

IMO, its hardly a dynamic BoD, one wonders if their major problem is on the golf course each day, trying to select which iron to use : ))

I have trolled through several Broker recommendations and where ever I have looked CAZA is tipped as a 'strong buy', perhaps I have missed something, but people more able in this field, than I, seem to have a great deal of confidence in CAZA

Got their head in the sand a bit there, I believe. Shale was not around in any marketable quantities in 1986, nor was the dash to renewables. The world still needs oil but the ability of OPEC to manipulate the price is less strong than it was a year ago, and will continue to decline

Problem with financial institutions is that they rarely look at the political picture, but only at profitability. Shale may fall for a while, but when it begins to bite, then politics will kick in and strategic energy resources start to be looked at. My bet is that if shale production falls to less than the demand for it in the USA, then you can expect governent initiatives to ensure that output is kept up. Friendly tax breaks etc...The USA will not wish to go back to being too relient upon festering Arab politics, nor too will Europe, in the long run. The only thing OPEC can really do to push the price of oil up now is to restrict its production, but there are too many fissures in OPEC, also if they did manage to force a higher price, then that would redouble efforts to go for shale. OPEC is in a no win situation right now

Regardless of the low oil price Caza has got to be worth more than this, it surely can compete favourably with imported oil but more importantly its a part of energy security for the United States, it seems doubtful that the USA would permit productive oil fields to go bust and substitute imported oil instead. That wouldn't be logical

I would have thought its much safer to hold ALK than bet on EDR alone . You are not likely to suffer much with ALK, but you will pick up anything that advances EDR in your ALK shares. To bet on EDR alone is a 50/50 bet, to bet on ALK and EDR together is somewhere above 50/50

Bit of a trend there, sort of thing you get when something has been tipped in a investors' news, or in a newspaper article . Anyone seen anything ?