Member Info for Vernony

Peculiar share this on one hand production and discoveries onwards and upwards all of the time and shares downwards and downwards at the same time. The latest find considerably increases their potential boepd . Of course world oil prices are going down, but they don't have to ship oil from Caza across the Atlantic before it can be sold. The market is right on their doorstep . IMO it seems to be just general investor caution about oil that his bringing this down

Hi Spike, I don't think that the oil price will ever recover much now, not as more and more countries start to exploit shale. At present it is only America that has reallly expoited shale. My personal opinion although not necessarily how it will happen, is that CAZA will sell up to a larger conglomerate because they can take lower profits due to economies of scale, that would not be particularly good for us though, unless CAZA can win a good sale price, otherwise we will have our shares in a large conglomerate whose reduced profits due to the low oil price, will be selling us into a declining SP. Just my opinion, of course !

There seems to be more blue than red at the moment, but in broker terms they are tiddlers . We need to really see the 250,000s and upwards to see a real trend

Personally I don't see anything in the rig count. There is currently a glut of oil so there will be less rigs , if the glut starts to swing towards shortage it will result in more rigs brought on line. Its the price of oil that matters and how much there is of it which dictates the number of rigs in operation

Is it 40,000,000 shares they hold in Edgonm ? If so, Any good news at Edgon would certainly give a kick to ALK sp

I think you are right it is politics which will save fraccing and home produced oil too.. They will not want to go back to importing oil and gas if it can be at all avoided, no matter if it costs a bit more

I don't think we will see much movement in home energy shares at present, people are afraid that the Labour party will get in and that is always bad for investment. Good for buying gold though !

Logic would suggest that CAZA is ripe for take over as the larger companies can operate using economies of scale, but there is no hint at all in the sp to suggest that anybody is mildly interested at present

I can't see anything wrong in that, it is market cycling. Too much gas price too cheap, less drilling for oil and gas, in turn that causes the price of oil and gas to go up, more rigs move in . Bloomberg seems to be getting alarmist

Problem is the current price sets what the market thinks CAZA is worth i.e. about 5 pence. Nobody would offer a takeover at more than three times the market SP, and they would have to have some kind of priviledged inside information to offer such an upgrade . The Shale industry is not going to shut down and is set to grow, so making further inroads on oil, which is probably never set to rise about $60 a barrel, probably much less as shale gets going in other countries besides the USA. I think the trick maybe, as they have already done, cut down on the exploration which will give them a gain over expenses, in the interim....I feel guilty about buying this share now, for ages I had been spouting about how shale was going to knock the price of oil right off of its pedestal, then I stupidly went and brought shares in Caza. It seems we are really relying upon the religious wars in the Middle East and the possiblity that they might start blowing up oil fields out to spite

Announcements today about N.Sea oil and the financial difficulties they have has very little to do with Shale gas. Logic would tell just about anyone, that the government are not going to let either oil, or gas shut down because the international oil price is low. This is home grown energy and its very unlikey to be allowed to drift off into oblivion in favour of buying oil and gas abroad. Short of somekind of political aversity to fossil fuel, then in the long run its almost a licence to print money ........but not right now !

Well I hope there is not a takeover, they wouldn't have to offer much because the sp has been set by traders already. Perhaps up another 3 to 5 pence, then you would end up with shares in a company that is maybe safe, but is never going to have a runaway sp, which is what the average (including me) invests in hope of

Hi JMR, I don't think a spike would cause an awful lot of problems, maybe a couple of panic sells, but during the Libya crises they were not exporting any oil at all Yes, at sometime OPEC will try to force up the oil price by limiting supply, but Shale gas and Shale oil is making a difference now and as more countries exploit their shale so it will iminge upon the oil producers. I think King Oil is dead now, its moved from a seller's market to a buyer's market, and anything OPEC does will simply increase the exploitation of Shale

Hi Orchy, I believe there will be some upward trend in the oil price, but it is never going to reach the sort of prices OPEC has enjoyed in the past. Of course OPEC will try to manipulate the price upwards, but in the long run that is self defeating, because it will simply fuel Shale gas/Shale oil exploration and exploitation, around the world. China, of course, as it recovers will suck in oil imports, but they are said to be sitting on the largest Shale beds on the planet and they have commenced to assess them. We, as it is, as you point out, are already reaping the benefits of Shale prices are tumbling here in the UK on just about everything, petrol, domestic electricty and even the hint of negative inflation in the econom. Even the government have extolled employers to reflect some of their windfall by jacking up wages. First time I have heard this government to do that :)) I don't see governments, nor the general public, willing to pay an exaggerated price for oil, and having to kowtow to the Middle East, if they have Shale under their feet. Oil will still have a major part to play, but it will never be so big again, as it once was.

Saudi can only keep this up for a limited time, because it will begin to affect their own economy. However, as I have said on here before, I cannot see America going from near independence from OPEC to wanting to be dependent upon them again. Sooner or later - I feel, that America will adopt a tax relief scheme which will assist home grown exploration and production.... OPEC, well, short of stopping to sell any oil may force the price up, but their population have to live, and they only have oil to sell. Moreover, forcing up the price of oil will assist the marginal fieldsi n the West that are on hold at present...In the long run more and more countries are going to start using Shale oil and Shale gas, so for OPEC the market is shrinking. Its becomming a buyer's market, and about time too ! My guess is if it ever hits $60-70 $ per barrel ever again, it will be short lived !

Looking at the graph, we seem to have got the handle of the tea cup, then down to the rim. Seems to suggest according to theory (note theory, not fact) that it has a small plateau (the bottom of the cup) and then a sharp rise

I don't think that the United States would contemplate allowing its own oil and gas production to close down and import it from Arabia instead.. My feeling is, that if the world price drops too low, the USA will introduce measures, such as tax cuts, on home producers ...Otherwise it wouldn't be logical to upset the USA balance of payments and be forced to deal with people whose regimes they do not particularly like, for the sake of a dollar, or two off of the price of a barrel

I imagine that is the OPEC strategy, to drive off shore oil out of the market, thereafter , let the price rise in response to world shortage. They probably know very well what the low price is doing to Venezuela and Iran. As nothing has shut down yet as uneconomic , I would guess there is still some way to go

If OPEC have any game plan it is to drive out competitors , such as those that recover oil from deep sea projects. To do that they have to hold oil below about $65 per barrel. If they allow the price to go up to $70-$100 then deep sea oil becomes viable again. So if OPEC do have a strategic plan, then it means that they have to keep the price of oil low !

Well they certainly will be a push over for a hostile bid. That unfortunately would not benefit us much as the sp is so low